400 NL: River bet & reasonings?

What would you have bet on the river and Why?


party poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)
BB ($145.30)
UTG ($354.30)
Hero ($875.50)
CO ($413.70)
Button ($656.60)
SB ($450.50)
Preflop: Hero is MP with , .
1 fold, Hero raises to $16, 1 fold, Button calls $16, 2 folds, .
Flop: ($38) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $20, Button calls $20
Turn: ($78) (2 players)
Hero bets $100, Button calls $100.
River: ($278) (2 players)
Hero bets $200, Button calls $200.
Final Pot: $678

I would have bet a bit more, since he already called an overbet on the turn, he must have had a strong made hand already, but nothing you can't beat of course. So I would make a pot sized bet or just below pot size (250) for maximum value. I'm don't play on this level, so don't take my advise to serious, but I guess that's what I would do.

Once he calls the turn overbet im tempted to put him allin here.

id prob go for 300, same format as turn. He has a made hand that he likes, doubt he picked up a turn flush draw but even if he did it prob. has the ace in it at least too.

One issue here is that I showed you that he called 200. This would indicate that he would call more. But I do not think he would call 200 ( 50 BB) without at least 2P. Would you call with AQ or AJ?

If I bet say 60 he would still call with AQ or AJ. He would reraise with 2P or higher and I would put him all in.

alan1983 said:

Once he calls the turn overbet im tempted to put him allin here.

id prob go for 300, same format as turn. He has a made hand that he likes, ( or he has an ace and thinks I am trying to buy the pot with an overbet) doubt he picked up a turn flush draw but even if he did it prob. has the ace in it at least too.

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All-in was my instinct too. I went to do it - but then something held me back. It niggled me afterwards and before he even called, hence my post.

As it happens he had (A, 10) He had made 2P on the river. I think in retrospect it should have been All-in or around 60.

My Thoughts anyway.

Interesting hand.

How to judge why he calls the pot overbet on the turn seems crucial. If it's true that he already has a hand that he likes then he'll call a good sized river bet. If he thinks you're trying to buy the pot, then another stab on the river would probably convince him that you are not just trying to buy the pot and would fold, his reads on you notwithstanding (ie. if you're playing LAG or have fired more than once before)

I'd bet at least $275, possibly more given more info. I loove making pot sized bets.

Villans play was horrible here. Remember we are playing 400NL not $10NL so you would think the play would be a little better. Villan has calling station fush written all over him.

First he calls with A-10. He had position and it didn't cost that much so I don't mind the call but A-10 is a trap hand that must be played carefully and must be dumped most of the time.

On the flop is where he played really really bad. You bet and he called. He got no information and has no idea where he stands in the hand. Do you have AK, AA, KK or are you making a continuation bet with air. He has no idea (assuming no reads). He should have reraised to about 60 or 70 here. If you call or raise then he should probably be done with the hand. It would have saved him money in the long run. By the way since he just called the river and didn't raise he prob suspected you for at least AK which makes his play even worse.

I can't believe he called the turn bet and didn't raise the river.

Caliban, you might have lost a bit more value on the river cause with 2 pair he'd call even $300, but you made more than you should have on the turn . Luckily he called the $100 there and didn't fold. TBH I don't like the way you sized that bet, you could have lost him because of it. I say "could" because of course a lot has to do with the image you have at the table. I wasn't there so I really can't tell if it was totally out of line or not, that's the disadvantage when you analyze through a cold HH.

Even if you could have made more I wouldn't worry too much about it, you can't really consider it a mistake because it's hard to put someone on 2 pair when they play the hand as passively as he did. All you knew was that he called your flop and turn bets, but he never was aggressive throughout so you really had no way to know if he had a strong hand that would call a bigger bet and maybe even a push.

In truth with AT he couldn't play this aggressively on flop and turn, because the 2 pair came on the last street. It's amazing how passive he was on the river once he did hit the 2 pair. I don't like the way villain played this but I do admire his discipline on the river, most would get broke there (I would ). It's funny in a way cause it almost seems like he sensed he was beat but in the same time he didn't escape when he should have, which was on the turn.

In hindsight, you almost have to wonder if maybe you'd have bet $100 he might have raised, and then you could shove and possibly get his whole stack. But seeing how passive he was, who knows? He might have just flat called the $100 too. I really don't think you should have any regrets on this hand, it actually went well considering 1) you could have lost him on the turn and 2) if a T doesn't come on the river, he might fold to any consistent bet.

Good job.

Any reads on villain? If he is a callign station, please to be betting a bit more on river after turnovercall. If he is agressive and will maybe play JJ, QQ on the flop this way, let him hang himself and c/r turn, altough I like betting here better 90% of the time (he will reraise if he thinks you are c-betting with a worse hand than his).

But please add villain to your notes no matter what type of hands he shows down. 99 would be pretty horrible. TT even worse. AK, why not aise preflop? AQ, good stacking off with top pair good kicker beating only AJ and A8 down. K9, why no raise on turn? Etc. And if he had AA: biggest fish ever, follow around, collect 200+ back once you pass GO.

No hand make sense or is played optimally on more than one street.

I think you played it nicely.

A river push would probably get called here, but I think Villain would also just call down a $60 bet too. He seems pretty passive generally. I'd take some good notes on him for future play, because his future is going to be pretty short.

Assessing what is the most +EV play here is pretty hard because you need to make some rough approximations of what percentage of all in rivers will get a call. What's to say that against another opponent you bet the $200 but instead of a flat call get a push over the top? I think all round you picked up good value on this hand.

Folks, Thanks for your replies.

To answer the questions w.r.t the overbet. I find that when you play 400Nl you get a lot of scared money playing ( eg people who normally play lower but then try higher). These folk often overbet to protect a hand that they think should win - but that is not very strong ( eg scare people off ). EG QQ, Ax in the hand below. I see this a lot.

A lot of the full buy in players know this and will often call an overbet with marginal hand as a result

I use an overbet a lot with strong holdings ( but never with weak marginal ones.) It works for me in general.

also, as villain i prefer just calling the river.

theres a srsly narrow range that we're getting river caleld by, hero's line is pretty wtf, but also he did fire 3 shots like a porno star. value raising is too thin, but we now beat loads of hands so call

mrsnake3695 said:

Villans play was horrible here. Remember we are playing 400NL not $10NL so you would think the play would be a little better. Villan has calling station fush written all over him.

First he calls with A-10. He had position and it didn't cost that much so I don't mind the call but A-10 is a trap hand that must be played carefully and must be dumped most of the time.

On the flop is where he played really really bad. You bet and he called. He got no information and has no idea where he stands in the hand. Do you have AK, AA, KK or are you making a continuation bet with air. He has no idea (assuming no reads). He should have reraised to about 60 or 70 here. If you call or raise then he should probably be done with the hand. It would have saved him money in the long run. By the way since he just called the river and didn't raise he prob suspected you for at least AK which makes his play even worse.

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youre logic for the flop raise is hugely flawed. its not the most +EV line unless villain has more info. calling is hugely the best option here, hes WA/WB and raising doesnt let himg et caleld by many worse hands

tufat23 said:

meh, ure flop/turn bet sizing is pretty bad no matter how u justify it

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Hello sir,

are you going to elaborate here or are you just going to make a wild comment without backing it up in any way?

also I notice this comment on your next post.

"hero's line is pretty wtf,"

Would you like to elaborate? For InfoI want to create a wtf image whilst play Tight agressive at the table, it normally pays.

I look forward in anticipation to some constructive input that will allow me to get gain from your knowledge. Thanks

tufat23 said:

youre logic for the flop raise is hugely flawed. its not the most +EV line unless villain has more info. calling is hugely the best option here, hes WA/WB and raising doesnt let himg et caleld by many worse hands

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I happen to agree with Mr Snake here. Sorry. In simple terms A,10 is marginal on a raised flop of A,K,9. A reraise is the play to do here as vilian on the flop, as it give one of two outcomes.

a) enables you to win the pot there and then.

or

b) enables you to see whether the initial raiser has a strong ace minimal. if he has he will call or reraise. If that happens you know you are losing.

A bet of reraise to 70 as suggested is a raise of 50 to a pot of 52 , thus making the pot 102. In effect its an even money bet. Assuming they fold 50% of the time then its =EV. The fact that makes it +EV is the fact that if you get called or if you get reraise then you know you are beat and you save money on later streets eg 250 more in this case. ( which is the equivelent of 5 more pot raises on the flop in very similar scenarios )

calibanboy said:

Hello sir,

are you going to elaborate here or are you just going to make a wild comment without backing it up in any way?

also I notice this comment on your next post.

"hero's line is pretty wtf,"

Would you like to elaborate? For InfoI want to create a wtf image whilst play Tight agressive at the table, it normally pays.

I look forward in anticipation to some constructive input that will allow me to get gain from your knowledge. Thanks

Click to expand...

how is it a wild comment.

bet 20 into 38, then bet $100 into 78 is redic stupid line.

why not bet 30 into 38, get called and then the pot is 98 and u can bet pot (i would prefer less) and BOOOM more monies in the pot already with a non-f'd up line. this is really really basic, and i know im sounding condescending but im right.

calibanboy said:

I happen to agree with Mr Snake here. Sorry. In simple terms A,10 is marginal on a raised flop of A,K,9. A reraise is the play to do here as vilian on the flop, as it give one of two outcomes.

a) enables you to win the pot there and then.

or

b) enables you to see whether the initial raiser has a strong ace minimal. if he has he will call or reraise. If that happens you know you are losing.

A bet of reraise to 70 as suggested is a raise of 50 to a pot of 52 , thus making the pot 102. In effect its an even money bet. Assuming they fold 50% of the time then its =EV. The fact that makes it +EV is the fact that if you get called or if you get reraise then you know you are beat and you save money on later streets eg 250 more in this case. ( which is the equivelent of 5 more pot raises on the flop in very similar scenarios )

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again, logic is flawed. ure basically just trying to play the hand the easiest way possible, rather than taking the hgihest +EV line.

if u raise AT on this flop, u might as well raise the whoel range of ure hands that u called with preflop.

why? well if u raise AT on this flop and get called, ure behind right? well its very unlikely that he'll call with a bad Ax as ure assuming and thus wont have any Kx. hence ure just raising the flop hoping for a fold with AT. if u get called or shoved on, ure line is to play 'really cautiosly' and ure gonna fold to any bet. well its also teh same with air. and the arguement that u have showdown value with AT is terrible since uve already assumed that worse hands cant call teh flop raise... so raising is stupid.



also the arguement that raising is good to save money later is flawed, cos now u never can call any bluffs and theres no reason to believe villain cant double barrel worse Ax or simply air/gutshots.


p.s. OP's sn is? im a reg on this game

tufat23 said:

how is it a wild comment.

bet 20 into 38, then bet $100 into 78 is redic stupid line.

why not bet 30 into 38, get called and then the pot is 98 and u can bet pot (i would prefer less) and BOOOM more monies in the pot already with a non-f'd up line. this is really really basic, and i know im sounding condescending but im right.

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It was a wild comment as it was just a ststement with nothing to back it up.

There is more than one way to cook an egg. Your way is textbook ( eg raise 3/4 pot ) and I do this very often. However to fire like this twice screams of strength and any marginal hand will fold. I played in a way that was "wtf" in your own words. Its amazing how many players want to have a look when they see someone play in a WTF manner as it often means a bluff or weakness. There is nothing wrong with this play, its called mixing it up. If we play your textbook style all the time you end up being very predictable, in my opinion. In my opinion you are not right. There are few times in poker when someone categorically is right and this is not one of them. FACT ( LOL)

78 and AA are the only ones that can beat you