$4 NLHEFull Ring: KK vs River bet with 2 Queens on board...

Villain has shown some good cards just a few hands before this action took place. Lost to a set with Jacks to a short-stack and won a decent hand with AK to get back up to where he was at when this hand started. Do you think I made a mistake on the turn and as played what should I do on the river? Thanks

full tilt poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 979574
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $2.12
MP1: $1.84
Hero (MP2): $3.25
CO: $2.00
BTN: $2.05
SB: $2.00
BB: $2.00
UTG: $2.07
UTG+1: $2.08

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP2 with K K
3 folds, MP1 calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.14, CO calls $0.14, 3 folds, MP1 calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.45) 2 7 Q (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.45, CO folds, MP1 calls $0.45

Turn: ($1.35) Q (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($1.35) 4 (2 players)
MP1 bets $0.74, Hero requests TIME, Hero says "KK", Hero ??????

I don't know why it didn't show it but villain VPIP/PFR was 23/8.

You should have bet out the turn. You are trying to figure out what the other guy has and the best way to do this is to see what he does on the turn. If he check raises you you can be pretty sure he has a queen. If you check and he bets out on the river you really have no idea where you are. If he is someone who will try to steal the pot you should call his bet on the river. Did you end up calling or what?

b/f turn

baudib1 said:

b/f turn

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More I think about it the more I think this option is the best course of action. I had just posted on someone else's thread that you get alot more info by betting than from checking. I need to practice what I preach.

I think he have 77 or 22 because he limp/call preflop and check to you on the flop

i think you should bet the flop smaller. The board is VERY dry so you're probably going to get people to fold their medium pocket pairs and other random junk when you pot it, so i'd bet around .25-.30.

Turn I guess you can bet/fold but I know i would check it back like you did and plan on calling a sane sized river bet unless i obv hit a set or the river comes a Q.

On the river, he's offering you 2.83:1, so you need to be best ~26% of the time for this to be a profitable call. There are pretty much no draws he could be bluffing with, so basically you're hoping he has 88-JJ, maybe 55 or 66. So it's probably pretty close, just because it's 2NL I might lean towards a call.

As for bet-folding the turn, I'm not sure how great of an option that is, villain has $1.25 left and there's $1.35 in the pot... I guess we could bet smaller to allow ourselves to get away should he raise, but even if we bet half the pot, ~$0.70, we'd only have to call $0.55 into a pot of $3.30, which is 6:1 odds, so we'd have to be better ~16% of the time for it to be profitable... I guess you might not good that often, but again it's pretty close.

I'm curious about the size of the bet on the flop. Why pot-sized? I usually bet that big if there's a draw and I want to keep others from having the right odds to call.

Is the goal to get the pot bigger when you assume you have the best hand? Scare off a small set (and wouldn't that be unlikely)?

My thought process would be to think that they must have hit a set to call such a large bet. But then I wouldn't understand the check/call. Maybe such a large bet looked like a bluff to steal?

So I'd be scared after the turn. And feel villain is pot-committed. But I agree that checking isn't the way to go since I hate to give a free card.

I guess this could be his play with AQ suited. Call the initial raise, check to induce bets with what he perceives is the best hand and then call it. Again checking to induce a bet and finally raising on the river since he fears you won't bet again.

debpes said:

I'm curious about the size of the bet on the flop. Why pot-sized? I usually bet that big if there's a draw and I want to keep others from having the right odds to call.

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I was actually hoping that he would have a Queen there. I thought a pot sized bet would appear to be a steal attempt to my opponent and a raise would pretty much make my opponent pot committed. The plan didn't work and with the Queen on the turn I no longer hoped my opponent had a Queen(obviously).

Agree that the pot-sized bet on the flop was a bit much, and for me a 7x raise preflop is also a bit much.

That said, I personally like your line when the Q came on the turn. If you bet the turn, you fold out all hands you are currently beating (88 through JJ) and are called or raised by all hands that have you crushed (Qx, 77, 22).

This is a classic way ahead, way behind situation, so the best course of action is to check behind the turn, turning your hand with showdown value into a bluff catcher on the river.

If your general plan is to b/f the turn, why not just save the chips and c/c the river. You end up spending the same amount, but actually win a fair amount of the time at showdown. Betting the turn will only allow you to win the pot when you're ahead already and lose when you fold to any aggression, including his bluffs.