$4 NLHEFull Ring: AA in a tough spot on the river. (Actually 0.01/0.02 stakes)

This is my first HA post, so I hope this is ok!

pokerstars Game #50663839283: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02 USD) - 2010/10/05 18:56:51 ET
Table 'Gothard' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: taxituna ($4.74 in chips)
Seat 2: shakey072 ($0.73 in chips)
Seat 3: Henman3000 ($1 in chips)
Seat 4: VILLAIN ($1.60 in chips)
Seat 5: Koncerewicz ($2.08 in chips)
Seat 6: ROMANKOZLOV ($4.89 in chips)
Seat 7: VILLAIN ($2.65 in chips)
Seat 8: campero65 ($1.19 in chips)
Seat 9: R.U.KIDDIN.M ($5.03 in chips)
campero65: posts small blind $0.01
R.U.KIDDIN.M: posts big blind $0.02
herllondavid: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jonnywatford [Ad Ah]
taxituna: folds
shakey072: calls $0.02
Henman3000: folds
VILLAIN: checks
Koncerewicz: folds
ROMANKOZLOV: folds
HERO: raises $0.06 to $0.08
campero65: folds
R.U.KIDDIN.M: folds
shakey072: calls $0.06
VILLAIN: calls $0.06
*** FLOP *** [Js 4h Kd]
shakey072: checks
VILLAIN: checks
HERO: bets $0.19
shakey072: calls $0.19
herllondavid: calls $0.19
*** TURN *** [Js 4h Kd] K♥
shakey072: checks
VILLAIN: checks
HERO: checks
*** RIVER *** [Js 4h Kd Kh] 6♠
shakey072: checks
VILLAIN: bets $0.74

Tough spot here, because I had 2 players call the flop bet, then when the turn hits a K, I'm worried one of them will have it at least, hence the check, but I have no stats on our Villain here, so it's hard to know what he could have. The bet size is rather big into a pot of 80.

Thoughts?

1) Use a hand converter.
2) On the river, I probably just vomit and fold. At these stakes, no one v-bets into 2 players without a king. So when you call, you're just looking to pick off a bluff, which is unlikely.

Yeah most people wont read if it's not converted, I am one of them. Look forward to other hands from you though.

Pretty lame spot on the river and I'd fold. Could also raise a bit more pre-flop. Oh wait I did read...

Cheers for the responses. I will make sure I look up a hand converter in future! As it was I sighed and called for him to flip over his J8. The close to pot bet pushed me to call. After the turn going check check, I think if he wants value for his trips, he's betting a little less than close to full pot.

JohnBoyWWFC said:

As it was I sighed and called for him to flip over his J8.

Click to expand...

Yeah, that is kinda surprising.

Something you should consider:

There are really two ways to play the hand in my opinion. You can bet/fold the turn, or check back the turn and then check/fold the river.

In my original post, I originally told you to bet the turn, but edited it out. Fish tend to call with too wide a range, and they're typically scared of value-betting thin or bluffing (much less bluffing into two players). You're more likely to get a fish to call with QT or J8 on the turn than you are to get them to v-bet J8 or bluff with QT on the river when it misses.

I edited out the advice to bet/fold because I thought that giving up at that point was also a decent strategy. After two players call the flop, its very likely one of them has a king, ESPECIALLY the player who v-bet the river because he over-called. Thus, given the likelyhood of at least one of them having top pair when they call the flop, simply giving up is an okay strategy as well. I think bet/folding the turn is slightly better than giving up, but not enough to advocate strongly here that its the best course of action.

In my opinion, what you did here was take the worst line possible given what we know about our opponents. While it may have worked out this time, your opponent has a range of hands (and in this case a range of tendencies). You want to take the course of action that works as often as possible for that whole range.

well, if villain pots the river with any J or any K, there are a lot more Jx than Kx hands because of card removal, so calling is +EV. But obviously that's a very specific read. Without that read, bet folding turn is better indeed.

True, in this case though, if I bet the turn, J8 is probably folding to a second barrel, so although over time, the bet fold turn is probably better, I guess the way it went down worked out better this time around.

JohnBoyWWFC said:

if I bet the turn, J8 is probably folding to a second barrel

Click to expand...

Why? It becomes even less likely that you have a king. He called the first time when there were 3 kings in the deck you could have, now there's just two. You think he's going to fold now?

First off you need Poker Tracker. They offer a free 60 day trial. His VP/ PFR numbers will tell you what kind of equity you have vs his range. Since he went to a showdown with 2nd pair and no kicker he is playing so much junk that you should be well ahead. Knowing that, since he did not bet the turn after you checked you should have shoved on the river rather than check call, especially with AA as you're probably going to call any bet anyway.

Second,you need to make your preflop raises bigger, much bigger than 3/4 bb when OOP. Make it a minimum of 6bb and if the table is exceptionally fishy make it 10 bb.

thanks

I did state he only just sat down...