$4 NLHE Full Ring: Weird spot with timing tell

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pat3392

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poker stars $0.01/$0.02

Hero (BTN): $5.45
SB: $1.15
BB: $4.90
UTG: $0.93
UTG+1: $2.20
MP1: $2.00
MP2: $1.74
CO: $1.73

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with 7:spade: 7:club:
UTG calls $0.02, 4 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.19) 3:diamond: J:club: 3:heart: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.12, UTG calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.43) J:heart: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.26, UTG calls $0.26

River: ($0.95) T:diamond: (2 players)
UTG bets $0.47 all in, Hero?

Villain stats:

VPIP=14
PFR=0
AF=0
Sample size=22

I'm thinking that maybe I should have limped this due to how tight he was?(2nd session with HUD, not familiar with it)

I fired the turn again because I thought that the second J made it very unlikely for him to have anything. Bad idea now I realise; if he had nothing I would have won at showdown anyway, I think the risk of him out drawing here is worth it.

He took a while to decide what to do when I bet the turn, it was followed by a instant shove on the river. I doubt he had the T, he shoved so fast that it seemed like he thought that was what he'd do on the turn, no hesitation at all(which I think would happen if he spiked T)
 
wrung24

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I think preflop is fine, you want to get some money in preflop so that you can think about his stack if you hit a set. He is a shortstack so there is maybe something specific to that to think about, but to me a stack is a stack. C-betting the flop here is up for debate I think, I tend to c-bet too much, and I'm not quite sure what to do in this kind of spot. Basically you're not getting a J or a 3 to fold (Unless you've been playing really really tight, he puts you on QQ+, and folds his J). There are no straight or flush draws out there. You're trying to either make him call with 22-66 (without 33) or fold 88-TT (hard because I think players at 2nl try to showdown their pocket pairs way too often). Played as you did I think checking the turn would be best here, you said it yourself, keep the pot small, see a showdown. If you check the flop and he bets the turn, you can fold and you've only lost your preflop raise (which was designed to flop a set or nothing in the first place), but that's maybe just me being a nit again. You put yourself in a tough position on the river, maybe someone else can make a case for calling, but I can't.
 
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Sorry for the big block paragraph, my firefox is bugging quite bad today
 
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baudib1

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There's just not enough value/implied odds to play against a shortstack in this situation. So he's a passive tard but seemingly not too loose, you're going to end up paying him off on stupid boards like this more often than the times he has a big hand that can pay you off when you flop a set.
 
wrung24

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I agree with what you say, but what about the players in the blinds ?
 
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pat3392

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There's just not enough value/implied odds to play against a shortstack in this situation. So he's a passive tard but seemingly not too loose, you're going to end up paying him off on stupid boards like this more often than the times he has a big hand that can pay you off when you flop a set.

He's 50BB deep.... Surely enough? Perhaps not for a raise but surely a limp is +EV
 
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pat3392

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I think preflop is fine, you want to get some money in preflop so that you can think about his stack if you hit a set. He is a shortstack so there is maybe something specific to that to think about, but to me a stack is a stack. C-betting the flop here is up for debate I think, I tend to c-bet too much, and I'm not quite sure what to do in this kind of spot. Basically you're not getting a J or a 3 to fold (Unless you've been playing really really tight, he puts you on QQ+, and folds his J). There are no straight or flush draws out there. You're trying to either make him call with 22-66 (without 33) or fold 88-TT (hard because I think players at 2nl try to showdown their pocket pairs way too often). Played as you did I think checking the turn would be best here, you said it yourself, keep the pot small, see a showdown. If you check the flop and he bets the turn, you can fold and you've only lost your preflop raise (which was designed to flop a set or nothing in the first place), but that's maybe just me being a nit again. You put yourself in a tough position on the river, maybe someone else can make a case for calling, but I can't.

Basically when I'm betting the flop here it is to protect my hand. He isn't going to call me with much I beat. I'm not positive either, but I think I need to bet because it protects it and gains information; he could bet the turn with ATC if I checked, without any reads he could do anything

I can't see any player folding a J here. If they think that their J may not be good because I may have QQ+ then what on earth would they call with preflop? If he thought I have QQ+ then surely he'd realise that AJ/KJ is smashed and hence, would not be in the pot with it.

It could be argued that he could fold a J because he called the raise pre with the intentions of playing 2 pair+, but I don't give a player that much credit at the lowest stakes possible that has a max buy-in of 250 but he bought in for 50BB... If he thinks like that he'd most likely have bought in for more chips
 
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Basically when I'm betting the flop here it is to protect my hand. He isn't going to call me with much I beat. I'm not positive either, but I think I need to bet because it protects it and gains information; he could bet the turn with ATC if I checked, without any reads he could do anything

I can't see any player folding a J here. If they think that their J may not be good because I may have QQ+ then what on earth would they call with preflop? If he thought I have QQ+ then surely he'd realise that AJ/KJ is smashed and hence, would not be in the pot with it.

It could be argued that he could fold a J because he called the raise pre with the intentions of playing 2 pair+, but I don't give a player that much credit at the lowest stakes possible that has a max buy-in of 250 but he bought in for 50BB... If he thinks like that he'd most likely have bought in for more chips

Still not sure about the flop but I hear you. You can take down the pot right here which is fine.

The rest I completely agree, I was just trying to illustrate the fact that he won't fold any J or 3, of course he can't put you on QQ+. I stopped giving players too much credit at 2nl quite a while ago.
 
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Isn't 50BB plenty deep enough though? Hell I set mine cheaper than that in tournaments...


Set mining without odds is a huge leak that is easy to fix. Only set mine stacks that are 100bb. You can lower that a bit if they are a spewtard. Also, you want to set mine vs a strong range, no point in calling the guy raising every fourth pot cause hes probs not gonna give you his stack on most flops when you hit your set. You have to win it without the set a lot of times to make it okay to call in position. If your OOP just raise it yourself or fold it. Extracting value with sets OOP is just plain hard. Im pretty sure limp calling isnt +Ev in almost any situation.
 
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baudib1

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Isn't 50BB plenty deep enough though? Hell I set mine cheaper than that in tournaments...

set-mining in tournaments is almost always bad beyond the first few levels. the whole point of shortstacking (50 bbs) is to deny set-miners odds.
 
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I'm not intending to be disrespectful, but before I change this part of my game I'd have to see some proof. 100BB does seem a bit extreme + it's such a round number, surely the optimal would be more like 96 or something??

Why do you guys think 100BB is where set mining is +EV? Have you got any articles about it/recommended books/ show the math/ got records of it from a tracking program

Hell I'm starting to limp stuff like Axs/Kxs/suited connectors/gappers from less than ideal positions in 50BB games at the casino(they're generally real passive pre and super spewy post) These plays have been advocated by others too, not sure if it is +EV or not though
 
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You flop a set like 10% of the time when you have a pair. So you have to win 10x the amount you called preflop just to make the play break even and since we want to win mannies we need to win more then this. Because of this we want to set mine vs a strong range and not weak ones so when we hit our set we can win a whole stack.

Some of the time even when you think you're up against a strong range you might just be vs a big A that misses or something like JJ or TT that dont want to stack off on A high boards. So for all the times you hit your set and get no action you miss out on the implied odds and that is why generaly you want to set mine vs 100bbs. Maybe one of the math guys can explain more of the maths involved.

Of course 100bb is a general amount and if they have 97bb you can treat it as a full stack.

This is specificly for set mining the small pairs that are very hard to win with if you dont hit your set. 22-77.

We're talking about cash games here and I would assume that in tourny play its even worse to set mine without odds as your sacrificing a lot of $ev.


EDIT:When you get a lot of hands in your database you can see if you winning money with the small pairs or not.
 
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WVHillbilly

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Guys he's not set mining here. All he's done is iso a limper. We'll win this a ton more than if we were just set mining. If the shorty had opened we should usually fold (it's still close*) if we don't expect to win the pot without hitting our set, this is true, but that's not what happened in the hand.

* When I set mine I look for the effective stack size to be 20 times the bet amount in general. So in this hand if the shorty had opened to .06 I would want his stack to be at least $1.20 (far from 100bbs though). I would still call with his .93 stack to set mine IF his range was basically only hands that he would never fold postflop because his stack is still almost 15 times the bet amount after he opens to .06. So yeah, set mining without odds isn't profitable but I think you guys need to consider just how good your implied odds really are against a tight range before throwing away a mid pocket pair on the button.


Edit to add: In the actual hand, I hate the turn bet unless you're calling every river. So as played snap call the river. He needs to have worse ~33% of the time for the call to be profitable and I can see him shoving the river with any Ace and a few pairs smaller than your 77.
 
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baudib1

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he's isoing a limper who actually is limping a strong range.
 
WVHillbilly

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he's isoing a limper who actually is limping a strong range.

So then even if we need to hit our set we're going to make money by raising. And his range isn't that strong. He didn't limp/reraise us after all.
 
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I wasnt talking about this hand specifically. Since the thread made its way around to set mining in general thats what I was replying to.



For this hand...

All we know about villain is that he has limped 3 hands in 2-3 orbits so far. He is a half stacker. Weak passive who probably doesnt even consider position. I deffo agree that raising is good here and that we can win this without hitting our set most of the time. We have the BU, aren't we supposed to raise pretty wide here?
 
WVHillbilly

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I wasnt talking about this hand specifically. Since the thread made its way around to set mining in general thats what I was replying to.

Ok. Well in general I don't think you need 100bb effective to set mine profitably. To a 3x raise, I'd want 60bbs+ (45bb min against a very strong range).
 
Pascal-lf

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All we know about villain is that he has limped 3 hands in 2-3 orbits so far. He is a half stacker. Weak passive who probably doesnt even consider position. I deffo agree that raising is good here and that we can win this without hitting our set most of the time. We have the BU, aren't we supposed to raise pretty wide here?

Exactly. Half stacker screams fish to me, I'm not going to automatically assume he's a short stacking pro who limps to deny us set mining odds when we iso...the plan here anyway will be to raise, get him to call his wide range, and take it down on any flop - if the flop comes low then we've got 2 overs, if the flop comes middle we've got the possibility of picking up draws, and if the flop comes high that is what we are repping anyway. If there's one over, we can c-bet the flop then see a cheap showdown as he's likely to be weak passive.
 
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I guess I can lower the line in which I can set min then. I was using 88ish bb as the minimum a stack should be to call with the small pairs.
 
WVHillbilly

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I guess I can lower the line in which I can set min then. I was using 88ish bb as the minimum a stack should be to call with the small pairs.

Depends on how big they open. If 4x you ideally want 80bb+.
 
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