$4 NLHE Full Ring: Too large a bet on the river?

belerophon

belerophon

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$4 NL HE Full Ring: Too large a bet on the river?

poker stars $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 519992
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $0.95
Hero (BB): $4.53
UTG: $2.31
UTG+1: $0.97
MP1: $5.00
MP2: $5.38
CO: $4.97
BTN: $1.85

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with 5 5
3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.06, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.13) 5 8 Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.05, Hero calls $0.05

Turn: ($0.23) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.14, Hero raises to $0.44, MP2 calls $0.30

River: ($1.11) J (2 players)
Hero bets $1.36, MP2 folds
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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Obviously we want the biggest payoff we can get, we are very likely to have the best hand. Hero's line here, though, looks really really strong - we shouldn't be surprised by a river fold.

Overbetting the pot on the river, though, is a fine play, esp if your image is aggressive/bluffy - don't be surprised by not getting paid off, but keep in mind that you don't need to get paid off all that frequently for this to be a better play than say a 1/2 psb.

fwiw, you baluga'd Villain - c/c flop, c/r turn - if he has any clue what that means, he'll read that as strength. I'd rather donk bet the flop or c/r the flop to build the pot earlier in the hand - donk betting in particular also gives us some flexibility in possibly trying to induce a bluff on the turn or the river.

His flop bet size is also so small that I'm concerned he didn't hit anything and picked up a turn flush draw, or has 99-JJ, which I might use to decide not to overbet the pot on the river in this specific hand.
 
U

Ubercroz

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I think you lead out on the flop and hope he has a big Q or an overpair. If he has one of those hands then you may get all of his stack. On the other hand if he had nothing in this hand then you got as much value as you can get. Bet earlier to build a big pot and people will pay you off with suprising regularity.
 
thepokerkid123

thepokerkid123

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Pre-flop I would rather 3bet to build a pot (it's going to be hard to get 225bb in when you hit a set after just calling pre-flop) and I think you should be looking for every bit of fold equity you can get here, there's a very good chance you either take the pot down pre-flop or win it with a cbet. Calling is still +EV here but I think 3betting is better.

On the flop I think you should donk bet 2/3 to 3/4 pot. You can easily get your opponent to commit way more than they should with any Q. Check-raising is a good option too if MP isn't weak-tight. The main point being that you have to bet, you've got bottom set which means you don't have the deck crippled at all, it's also a fairly dry flop so KQ will look like the nuts to your opponent. Bet, build a pot, play for stacks.

The problem with the line you took is that there's no air in your range, you've either got the effective nuts or you've got the nuts. 1c/2c players wont be putting you on a range, but even to them check/call, check-raise, overbet is scary as hell. If you take a line like bet, bet, overbet, then they can make a hero call to catch you bluffing or they can even value raise the river with their TPTK.
You also need to be building a pot with hands like this, it's the kind of hand you want to be getting as many chips as possible in the middle with and you need to be thinking early in the hand about how you're going to achieve that.
 
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