$4 NLHE Full Ring: Shoved AJs with Flush Draw and Broadway Gutshot

F

fx20736

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 47.54/9.84/5

Based on his stats I actually thought I was ahead on the flop. His stack was only 3x the pot and I figured I had 12 outs (9 clubs + Qd Qh Qs). Of course I had to discount one of those after the flop but the money was all in anyway. After the hand I ran this hand through Pokerstove and it showed that I had 45% equity on the flop. Was this a +EV decision??

Full Tilt - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
CO: $0.65
BTN: $0.21
Hero (SB): $2.78
BB: $1.03
UTG: $1.66
UTG+1: $3.47
MP: $2.17
MP+1: $2.00
LP: $3.70
Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has A J
UTG calls $0.02, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.08, BB raises to $0.14, fold, Hero calls $0.06
Flop: ($0.30, 2 players) 6 T K
Hero bets $2.64 and is all-in, BB calls $0.89 and is all-in
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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Shoving is fine, I think I prefer a check/raise all-in in this spot though, you can expect him to bet the flop most of the time after 3-betting pre (although it was a min 3-bet, I don't understand how anyone would do that). I guess it doesn't matter that much because if he leads for $0.30 here he's not folding for ~$0.60 more most of the time, but maybe he'd fold if he led for $0.20 and left ~$0.70 behind. Either way, you have a monster draw and it's totally correct to get it in.
 
pickup

pickup

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I like getting it in here, the only thing I would do different would be to check it to him, and raise him all in if he bet anything. Also if he has a pair of 10's or worse this is always a +ev situation
 
brank

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What kind of range did you give them to end up with 45% equity?
 
WVHillbilly

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What kind of range did you give them to end up with 45% equity?

He held AsQh

Did you know his cards when you shoved? No. So you need to figure your equity vs his range. He short and bad so it's pretty wide but I'd say it's something like TT+,AQs+,ATs,KJs+,AQo+,KQo that calls your shove (AQ shouldn't but it did so I included it). Against that range that calls your flop shove (hate it btw) you have about 42% equity, which is certainly more than enough considering dead money and his stack size. I hate the shove because if we shove he might fold a few hands we have really great equity against but if we check he'll almost certainly bet his entire min-3betting range (assuming there is such a thing). So by shoving we're getting it in against only the strongest part of his range but by checking we get to play for stacks against all of it.
 
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fx20736

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Did you know his cards when you shoved? No. So you need to figure your equity vs his range. He short and bad so it's pretty wide but I'd say it's something like TT+,AQs+,ATs,KJs+,AQo+,KQo that calls your shove (AQ shouldn't but it did so I included it). Against that range that calls your flop shove (hate it btw) you have about 42% equity, which is certainly more than enough considering dead money and his stack size. I hate the shove because if we shove he might fold a few hands we have really great equity against but if we check he'll almost certainly bet his entire min-3betting range (assuming there is such a thing). So by shoving we're getting it in against only the strongest part of his range but by checking we get to play for stacks against all of it.

No, his range was so wide that really I figured it could be anything. I figured 99+ Ax K9s KTo+ (PFR range was 9.84 but not a big sample). I really haven't memorized my equity vs hand ranges yet but am working on it.

This is probably an example of where I don't want to get to the river and miss and have to make a difficult decision- maybe when I am more experienced I'll be more comfortable making these decisions. As a poker newbie I would rather get it in and not make a bad decision.

If I check and he checks behind and the river is a blank then I probably need to shove anyway. Against a big stack or a better player I'm not shoving here.

As it is the turn was blank...


Turn: ($2.08, 2 players) 4
River: ($2.08, 2 players) K
Hero shows A J (Flush, Ace High)
BB shows A Q (One Pair, Kings)
Hero wins $1.95
 
WVHillbilly

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He almost never checks behind with anything here and the range I stoved was the range that calls when you shove, not his opening range.
 
pokerman27

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Did you know his cards when you shoved? No. So you need to figure your equity vs his range. He short and bad so it's pretty wide but I'd say it's something like TT+,AQs+,ATs,KJs+,AQo+,KQo that calls your shove (AQ shouldn't but it did so I included it). Against that range that calls your flop shove (hate it btw) you have about 42% equity, which is certainly more than enough considering dead money and his stack size. I hate the shove because if we shove he might fold a few hands we have really great equity against but if we check he'll almost certainly bet his entire min-3betting range (assuming there is such a thing). So by shoving we're getting it in against only the strongest part of his range but by checking we get to play for stacks against all of it.

OP read this, then read it again. And by read it I mean really read it and understand it. I'm not having a go, just saying that there is too much of a tendency sometimes to justify actions based on the outcome of the hand. Irrelevant. You won the hand, which is good of course, but you want to be comfortable with analysing similiar situations when they come up again.

I, along with a lot of players am guilty of reading some posts in the HA section without truly understanding the concepts - once you get out of that mindset then you will really get a lot more out of here.

Of course, I'm not saying take everything as read, by all means argue points, that's what it's here for. GL.
 
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