$4 NLHE Full Ring: Set on flop vs flush possibility on river AI

Where do we go from here? Should I have even opened on that river?

[P] 3Bet range {QQ} (1)
[P] Called 2Bet from blinds range {TT,ATs,T7s,ATo} (4)
[P] Limp and called a raise {86s} (1)
[F] Donks flop with top pair or better (2)
[T] Played turn draw aggressively (2)

A couple notes that PT4 had on him. If they help, they help.


Merge - $0.04 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): $3.96
UTG+1: $6.85
MP: $2.92
MP+1: $3.46
CO: $2.78
BTN: $6.30 VPIP: 42 PFR: 18 AF: 1.6 Hands: 115
SB: $3.96
BB: $10.14

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.06) Hero has

Hero raises to $0.12, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.12, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.30, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.08, BTN calls $0.08

Turn: ($0.46, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.24, BTN calls $0.24

River: ($0.94, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, BTN raises to $5.86 and is all-in, Hero ????

1. Bet way more on flop unless you like being sucked out on by flush draws or losing value, I would make it ~$0.23 and hope he has a king.

2. Bet way more on turn to around ~$0.38

3. Now he hit his flush and you are in a horrible situation. Also why do you bet the most on the river on the worst card that came? Usually the river bet is lower in pot ratio than turn/flop. Anyway river bet is actually a decent size and okay. Once he shoves unless he is shoving Two pair hands, K/X type hands here then I am always folding that river. Looks like he hit his flush seen as you gave incredibly good pot odds for him.

Also if he is a fish then betting more than I have said on each street is also fine. I am also betting that river unless I have a good read on him that he has the flush.

I realize I should've bet more on flop but honestly was hoping to keep him in here with worse and not see a 3rd spade. And don't come to conclusions. I never said he hit for the record.

Blobweird123 said:

I realize I should've bet more on flop but honestly was hoping to keep him in here with worse and not see a 3rd spade. And don't come to conclusions. I never said he hit for the record.

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Not jumping to conclusions at all, what else is he shoving on that river? there are lots of combinations of flushes that a villain with VPIP of 42 can have here and you're probably dead on the river too often to make the call. Also saying that you wanted to keep him in is a pretty poor argument, you want to get value from all the hands that lose to you and seen as his VPIP is so high and at these stakes he is probably a fish so betting low is just leaking money everywhere. If he has anything lower than a king and you bet big; yes he probably will fold but it will make up for the time that when he has a flush draw or a king he will pay you off on every street...

If I was betting on this hand I would bet big money that you were dead on the river.

Also it is worse the you are OOP, if he has the flush draw and you bet when the flush card comes and he raises you're going to be in a much worse situation than if you were IP and he was drawing as he would probably donk bet the river to get value from his flush and then you can just call.

Value.bet.bigger.

Leading river is fine.

Start with a full stack. Bet bigger everywhere. I'd probably pot the flop tbh. Because if he's likely to call .20 he's probably not folding for .30. Your goal should be 3 comfortable bets to get all-in by the river. Betting .08 will NOT accomplish that.

With the pot being so small compared to your remaining stack when he shoves the river as played you can't call profitably unless you think he's bluffing/betting worse almost 50% of the time. Hint: he's not.

Bet way more more everywhere, fold river as played for the reasons WV has given.

Yoshi said it well. Bet more OTF, dont worry about keeping him in.He aint going anywhere if he wants to continue anyway - IMO - so he is calling of folding most bets you make here. And bet more OTT.

As played I am folding the river.


EDIT_ LOL, I opened this thread over an hour ago and there was only Yoshis post and Blobs reply. Just got around to answering it and I was like "where did all these other posts come from?"

16c preflop, 30c OTF, near pot turn, shove river.

He's 42/18, you're not worried about him folding. Bet big to get big value.

WVHillbilly said:

Start with a full stack. Bet bigger everywhere. I'd probably pot the flop tbh. Because if he's likely to call .20 he's probably not folding for .30. Your goal should be 3 comfortable bets to get all-in by the river. Betting .08 will NOT accomplish that.

With the pot being so small compared to your remaining stack when he shoves the river as played you can't call profitably unless you think he's bluffing/betting worse almost 50% of the time. Hint: he's not.

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I have it set to auto rebuy under 100bb's so really unsure as to why it left me a bb short that hand.

ChuckTs said:

16c preflop, 30c OTF, near pot turn, shove river.

He's 42/18, you're not worried about him folding. Bet big to get big value.

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Believe it or not, the entire table would do nothing but fold to most bets I made.

And I like 3x pre. OTF I usually come out with 0.18 with the pot .24-.28. But this guy was folding to me all night. Maybe I took some money off him another night? lol dunno.

42/18s call more than they fold. Value bet them wide, and value bet them big. It doesn't mean squat that he's been folding to you 'all night' (you have 115 hands on the guy and he's still 42/18.....). The board is wet, villain is bad, his range is wide, and he's going to call a ton. Get value.

If you're not willing to keep your mind open to advice, don't post in the advice designated for asking advice!

ChuckTs said:

If you're not willing to keep your mind open to advice, don't post in the advice designated for asking advice!

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Whoa man. The only thing I disagreed with is the preflop raise. Why? Because I always raise 3x and wasn't asking how my preflop action was. So why the attitude?

chuck is 4x your standard or just at super soft tables?

Blobweird123 said:

I realize I should've bet more on flop but honestly was hoping to keep him in here with worse and not see a 3rd spade. And don't come to conclusions. I never said he hit for the record.

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Blobweird123 said:

Whoa man. The only thing I disagreed with is the preflop raise. Why? Because I always raise 3x and wasn't asking how my preflop action was. So why the attitude?

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Sorry, I misread the first post in conjunction with your reply to me as basically 'I like my sizing, I'm not listening', which we get often in HA forums.

If I come off blunt it's because I don't have much patience for those who ask for advice then are too stubborn to take heed of it when it's given. If that's not you, then that's not you, sorry if I came off short.

duggs said:

chuck is 4x your standard or just at super soft tables?

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My standard is completely situational. Generally it's 3x everywhere, 2.5x co/btn, but that changes often with table conditions. Especially when there are massive fish yet to act. I'll raise as big as I feel they'll call. Sometimes that means 6x+ if their range is inelastic enough.

makes sense, i just imagined that 4xing wouldnt go down so well at tougher tables

duggs said:

makes sense, i just imagined that 4xing wouldnt go down so well at tougher tables

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It's not really that exploitable, and most don't exploit the little vulnerability there is. It's a function of several factors, not just my hand strength. I'm not opening AA for 6x and KQ for 3x when there's a fish behind me, I'm opening for 6x with both.

If I'm on the BTN, huge fish in the blinds, and a reg opens for 5x in the CO, I'm just assuming he's going for value vs the fish. I'm not going to be 3betting him that wide because most of my value range is going to be flatting to induce the fish to tag along, so my 3bet is actually going to be mostly light and thusly very exploitable in itself.

ChuckTs said:

Sorry, I misread the first post in conjunction with your reply to me as basically 'I like my sizing, I'm not listening', which we get often in HA forums.

If I come off blunt it's because I don't have much patience for those who ask for advice then are too stubborn to take heed of it when it's given. If that's not you, then that's not you, sorry if I came off short.

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No worries man. Definitely here to learn. Just meant as far as my open bet size its always 3x+1 for every limper.

Otherwise im ready and willing!

ChuckTs said:

It's not really that exploitable, and most don't exploit the little vulnerability there is. It's a function of several factors, not just my hand strength. I'm not opening AA for 6x and KQ for 3x when there's a fish behind me, I'm opening for 6x with both.

If I'm on the BTN, huge fish in the blinds, and a reg opens for 5x in the CO, I'm just assuming he's going for value vs the fish. I'm not going to be 3betting him that wide because most of my value range is going to be flatting to induce the fish to tag along, so my 3bet is actually going to be mostly light and thusly very exploitable in itself.

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couldnt we 4bet him with a wider value range because of this? since he will have a dominated flatting range and a wider than normal 4b/fold range?

WVHillbilly said:

Start with a full stack. Bet bigger everywhere. I'd probably pot the flop tbh. Because if he's likely to call .20 he's probably not folding for .30. Your goal should be 3 comfortable bets to get all-in by the river. Betting .08 will NOT accomplish that.

With the pot being so small compared to your remaining stack when he shoves the river as played you can't call profitably unless you think he's bluffing/betting worse almost 50% of the time. Hint: he's not.

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Ditto

duggs said:

couldnt we 4bet him with a wider value range because of this? since he will have a dominated flatting range and a wider than normal 4b/fold range?

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Actually, no, not with that sized open. If we open for 6x for example and someone 3bets to 18bbs, then we can't effectively 4bet bluff since the size we'd need to 4bet would just be too big and too committing.

Too drunk and tired to write a full response about the polarization of the 3bet/4bet ranges and all the sizing issues and the math and the leveling (it would be tough even if I were sober).

It comes down to the fact that your isolating range for opening that big is very strong, and most don't **** with your opens when you size them like that.

edit: I just realized you said value range, not bluff range. Not sure what your second sentence means - vs a 3bet we have a dominated flatting range? Assuming the 3bettors range is going to be very polarized, why would that be so? And why does the opener have a high 4bet bluff % now?