$4 NLHE Full Ring: QQ in pos are we getting this allin on flop??

$0.02/$0.04 No Limit Holdem (8 players)
SB: $4.66
BB: $3.86
UTG: $4.17
UTG+1: $4.03 VPIP 20% PFR 15% AGG 43% CBETS FLOP 100% hands 20
MP: $2.13
MP+1: $5.33
CO: $4
BTN Hero: $4

Pre-flop: ($0.10) Hero is BTN and dealt
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $0.12, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.46, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.34

Flop: ($1.02) (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1, Hero He has $2.57 left ?? Are we getting it all in here or what should we do???

yeah shove

What is your reason for 3 betting pre?
Why 3 bet pre if you are not shipping this flop?

cardriverx said:

yeah shove

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why? What worse does this guy call a shove with? What is his preflop 3bet call range and what is his donking range?

bgomez89 said:

why? What worse does this guy call a shove with? What is his preflop 3bet call range and what is his donking range?

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I believe he said he only had 20 hands on villain so all stats are out the window.Given the preflop action the only hand that beats us that makes sense is JJ since there is so much more than that in his range we flat here.Hope he donks the turn,if not we value shove his stack on the turn.

JOEBOB69 said:

I believe he said he only had 20 hands on villain so all stats are out the window.Given the preflop action the only hand that beats us that makes sense is JJ since there is so much more than that in his range we flat here.Hope he donks the turn,if not we value shove his stack on the turn.

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well what do you think is range is?

Hard to say,given no real stats i'll say given his position prob top 8% of hands.88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+ an if he likes to donk i'll take the risk of letting his dumb ass bluff off the turn.Even though a lot of turns give us the worst hand and kill our action but i'll take the risk with this donk(bettor).

im hating that range so much.

While we don't have many hands I think we have some clues on this player:

1. His stack size. It's 100bbs, fish usually have less because they don't have auto-rebuy on.

2. His stats over 20 hands seem decent. He's not playing that many hands and he's raising most of them. Regs obv have a close vpip/pfr.

By using that information I think we can conclude that he is a somewhat competent player and he knows at least some aspects of playing "correctly."

Most competent players in full ring, correct me if i'm wrong, will not open AJ/KT/KJ/QJ/ATs from UTG1. I'm not sure about pairs but id think that 88+ seems like a good raising range for those.

After we 3bet, I think his range is MUCH tighter than the 8% of hands you said because it's FR and we just 3bet an EP raiser which, again correct me if i'm wrong, is a really ballsy move which means our range is strong. I'm thinking TT+ AK/AQ. With such a strong donk bet and because he flatted our 3bet I can only see TT+ making such a move(honestly i want to take TT out) which puts at 33% against that range

tval35 said:

The guy has has like j-10 suited. Hes not donking with a set or AJ. He's betting to fold to a shove.

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why? how do you know this?

bgomez89 said:

im hating that range so much.

While we don't have many hands I think we have some clues on this player:

1. His stack size. It's 100bbs, fish usually have less because they don't have auto-rebuy on.

2. His stats over 20 hands seem decent. He's not playing that many hands and he's raising most of them. Regs obv have a close vpip/pfr.

By using that information I think we can conclude that he is a somewhat competent player and he knows at least some aspects of playing "correctly."

Most competent players in full ring, correct me if i'm wrong, will not open AJ/KT/KJ/QJ/ATs from UTG1. I'm not sure about pairs but id think that 88+ seems like a good raising range for those.

After we 3bet, I think his range is MUCH tighter than the 8% of hands you said because it's FR and we just 3bet an EP raiser which, again correct me if i'm wrong, is a really ballsy move which means our range is strong. I'm thinking TT+ AK/AQ. With such a strong donk bet and because he flatted our 3bet I can only see TT+ making such a move(honestly i want to take TT out) which puts at 33% against that range

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Well it's 4nl so i'm assuming villain is bad untill proven other wise.Yes his range should tighten up after we 3bet.I can see him donking this flop with 88,99,1010,QJ,KJ,AJ, like i said the only hand we are behind that might be in his range now is JJ.So like i said i flat flop,and try to get it all in on the turn.
You can take out KK,AA out of his range 4nl player would 4bet with these QQ prob aswell an giving hero's hand unlikely.

shove your only lossing to AA/KK but i think he 4bets with theses hand JJ which is more likly because he only calls your bet 22 55 and how often do coolers like that happen?

20 hands and villain is vpip of 20 at an eight handed table...equivalent is 17+ at a full table using standard vpip formulas, so while villain is not tight, he is not loose either. We have to give him some credit for having something.

Our fear is, of course jj in his hole. BUt it is reasonable to add in bigger pair, but more likely with AK, AQ, AJ and the 88+ pair, thro in a few suited aces and at this point it looks good for us.

DO you want to ship it here and risk the potential overcard hitting? Villain bet in a traditionally tight position (UTG+1) suggesting the higher end of his potential range. SO maybe we drop the suited aces, maybe even up his pairs to TT+, leaving those pairs and the Broadway aces.

I would milk him, rather than put him on such a tight spot to easily fold to a shove. But then I lose often doing that when the overcard hits but I think I am +ev even so. I would milk him by raising his minish bets, or when he checks throwing a minish bet at him. Of course as the pot increases, so does the minish size, so if he checks, maybe he looks for a 1/3 pot bet (normal might be 1/2 pot).

After your first raise, he believes you are serious about this hand, his natural thinking will have him believing you have a Jx, at this point you are praying he has Jx and the x is a suited connector. You want extra bets out of him, and as many as he will provide. U shove, he folds, you lose value....

Milk him I say.

That villain has similar stats to the ones I had in 2NL FR. Assuming he is competent based on those stats and looking at the way I played in FR, his opening range should not include AJo UTG. On the other hand I don't think that he has AA and KK unless he put up a trap. If he is competent... he might have done that. I would've flatted JJ to a 3bet and go from there, maybe the villain did the same thing.

On the other hand we don't know if he is in fact competent. And shoving AK, TT or calling a 3bet with 55 or 22 and getting lucky is one of those things.

If he trapped with KK+ or flatted JJ and shoved the set, he outplayed the OP and was competent. If not he was like most micro players are and did one of those things micro players do.

Cutting thru the analysis above, most correct, I would discount higher pr... so he has a set or is behind. Me I would shove here for value because if turn is a brick he will fold to a bet there. Very hard to get away from QQ so I would shove and hope he calls on a draw with overs... if he has a set so be it.

DJ asks "DO you want to ship it here and risk the potential overcard hitting?" I understand, but also don't want to risk A or K hitting and then be faced with a tough call situation if he shoves... would rather make him take the risk with his 6 outs on the overs...

Makwa said:

Cutting thru the analysis above, most correct, I would discount higher pr... so he has a set or is behind. Me I would shove here for value because if turn is a brick he will fold to a bet there. Very hard to get away from QQ so I would shove and hope he calls on a draw with overs... if he has a set so be it.

DJ asks "DO you want to ship it here and risk the potential overcard hitting?" I understand, but also don't want to risk A or K hitting and then be faced with a tough call situation if he shoves... would rather make him take the risk with his 6 outs on the overs...

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^ good point about making the spot hot for him, and preventing a furture hot spot for us. At this point the QQ is very likely ahead, but villain undeniably has outs. So while on Tuesdays, Thursdays and alternating Sundays I might milk the villain, the rest of the time I might shove for that very reason.

However, to bolster the milking scenario, villain will very likely give us some information if we flat the flop, and come along cheaper. This is giving villain some info on purpose. Perhaps timing can induce the perception that we are trapping him. And we do have position on him.

2.5 orbits (20 hands) isn't long enough to get much of a read on anyone, but it is all we have. That and a pretty nice hand. Villain has seen 4 flops, and c-bet 100% of them. This will be his 5th flop seen in 21 hands. Normal flow of cards might (but not so much at only 20-21 hands) suggest he only see about 2 flops, so he is been proactive..

So it really boils down to how much you want to be gambling vs how much you want to play the game of poker. Are you? Were you? Are you always in the same frame of mind at the table? Rationally, either way will work, shove or milk him like a cow. Results over time will favor you shoving in this situation. The milk him concept is my way of keeping bad beats stresses from overwhelming me.

Mathematically, you should probably shove and just win the hand, Problematically, that is probably going to net you less over time.

Why are we really debating what villain could have in his range over 20 hands!


20/15 over 20 hands could easily turn out to be a 40/30 or a 10/8. Lets stop assuming he knows about position etc and think what happened.

He donked after we put down some big aggression PF, i really cant see many people doing that on a dry board with a set here.

AJ we can surely put in an unknowns UTG opening range yeah? sorted, now we can happily call and get it in on the turn or just shove over his donk bet and be happy whatever he has.

Seriously the way villain plays this we cant just assume he has JJ and not be happy getting it in, im sure he could donk with more hands than AJ that we crush too so even if AJ and sets are the only thing in his range we're still ahead as theres 12 combo's of AJ out there and 9 combo's of sets he could have. (if he even plays 22 from utg... )

There's never, ever a fold here. You want to get his whole stack here. As much as I would think flatting gets you value from Jx, I don't see him folding this hand either. I shove and try to get max value from a hand he won't fold.

I don't want to just call and risk an overcard killing the action... I'm not worried about an overcard hitting his range. If that happens, oh well. That's why you don't play underolled.

acky100 said:

Why are we really debating what villain could have in his range over 20 hands!


20/15 over 20 hands could easily turn out to be a 40/30 or a 10/8. Lets stop assuming he knows about position etc and think what happened.

He donked after we put down some big aggression PF, i really cant see many people doing that on a dry board with a set here.

AJ we can surely put in an unknowns UTG opening range yeah? sorted, now we can happily call and get it in on the turn or just shove over his donk bet and be happy whatever he has.

Seriously the way villain plays this we cant just assume he has JJ and not be happy getting it in, im sure he could donk with more hands than AJ that we crush too so even if AJ and sets are the only thing in his range we're still ahead as theres 12 combo's of AJ out there and 9 combo's of sets he could have. (if he even plays 22 from utg... )

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thank you, this +10000000

why call? villain already donked out, so he has 50% of his stack already in the pot? Shove over villain, you have less than a pot-sized bet left on the turn. Villain has so many Jx hands in his range, its 4nl, hes probably raising J8+ UTG...

agreeing w/joebob, bc as for this whole "he knows position, hes a reg etc.." he just called a 3b oop, then donked at the flop, hes terrible

I dont understand how flatting a 3bet OOP and donking this flop automatically make you bad.

bgomez89 said:

I dont understand how flatting a 3bet OOP and donking this flop automatically make you bad.

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ok, ill explain what i mean

that is such a -ev play...what hands is he pushing out of pot by donking? AK maybe? AIC's whole 3b range is still solid on this flop, his 3b range is ahead of villains calling range by far...the only hands villain can have that is ahead of op's range is sets, AA, KK...I doubt villain flats a 3b oop w/AA, KK, so the only hands ahead of op are sets. By donking out on this flop, villain is pretty much saying he doesn't have anything. If by a small chance villian has the set, well thats a cooler.

I cant see anyway your not shoving on flop? Calling to get stacks later is plausible, but if an A comes on turn..your behind almost every time

bgomez89 said:

I dont understand how flatting a 3bet OOP and donking this flop automatically make you bad.

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4NL is a hyper passive game so when someone 3bets its usually with a narrow range. You are an unknown to him so he should assume your 3bet range is narrow and strong.

There is virtually nothing you can flat against that range.

Trapping is stupid too, why flat AA here when you likely have a hand you will stack off with anyway?

Donking here is silly because you will cbet 100% of your range. If he wants to bluff he should let you bet first.

All that donking allows him to do is to push you off your own made hands when you miss.. but hang on your 3bet range is so strong that most of your range hits and what dosent will peel.. so if this is a bluff he has 0% fold equity.. so its kind of dumb to do as a bluff and kind of dumb to do for value when you would bet anyway.

RVladimiro said:

That villain has similar stats to the ones I had in 2NL FR. Assuming he is competent based on those stats and.......

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Noone at these stakes is competent.

Stu_Ungar said:

4NL is a hyper passive game so when someone 3bets its usually with a narrow range. You are an unknown to him so he should assume your 3bet range is narrow and strong.

There is virtually nothing you can flat against that range.

Trapping is stupid too, why flat AA here when you likely have a hand you will stack off with anyway?

Donking here is silly because you will cbet 100% of your range. If he wants to bluff he should let you bet first.

All that donking allows him to do is to push you off your own made hands when you miss.. but hang on your 3bet range is so strong that most of your range hits and what dosent will peel.. so if this is a bluff he has 0% fold equity.. so its kind of dumb to do as a bluff and kind of dumb to do for value when you would bet anyway.

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thank you stu

dj11 said:

DO you want to ship it here and risk the potential overcard hitting? Villain bet in a traditionally tight position (UTG+1) suggesting the higher end of his potential range. SO maybe we drop the suited aces, maybe even up his pairs to TT+, leaving those pairs and the Broadway aces.

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Why would you be worried about an overcard comming after you ship?

If your shove was a correct +ev decision it dosent matter what cards come next