$4 NLHE Full Ring: Overpair + OESD, call or shove?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 25/15/2

I've been playing a fairly loose-aggro player for about 100 hands; nothing too fancy, no big reads. He's ~25/15/2.0 and he's got position on me and got me covered.

Merge Network $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players

UTG: $2.51
Hero (UTG+1): $4.12
MP1: $7.73
MP2: $4.00
CO: $5.55
BTN: $4.29
SB: $6.95
BB: $0.79

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is UTG+1 with J♠ J♣
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.16, MP1 calls $0.16, 3 folds, SB calls $0.14, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.52) 8♦ T♥ 9♦ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.39, MP1 raises to $1.04, SB folds,
Hero...???

Nice flop for me. I've got TP's hands (AT and maybe JT) beat, but with his raise he could easily have a set, or possibly two pair (T9 is feasible), or a pair + a FD. And worst case he has a made straight.

Here's what Stove says for what I think is a realistic continuing range for the villain: pairs, sets, and some broadway draws minus premium PP which he probably would have 3bet with preflop:

Board: 9d 8d Th
Hero: 48.97% { JsJc }
Villain: 51.03% { TT-88,ATs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,KdTd,QdTd,ATo,QJo,JTo,T9o,9 8o }

Do I shove? Do I just call?

It's a horribly connected board that hits villain in a lot of different ways but seeing as he's so lag then 50/50 looks about right although I would guess we're slightly ahead and he's unlikely to fold any of his combo draws. Either way I just shove and if he's got 2pr+ then good for him.

Call, fold turn to anymore reasonable aggression unless u hit ur straight. he can have a combo draw, or a straight/flush draw but even then we are only 65/35~ to win if he has nut flush draw, if he has a set/two pair/straight/overpair you are a worse underdog.

Yoshimiii said:

Call, fold turn to anymore reasonable aggression unless u hit ur straight. he can have a combo draw, or a straight/flush draw but even then we are only 65/35~ to win if he has nut flush draw, if he has a set/two pair/straight/overpair you are a worse underdog.

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Pretty horrible plan imo. We're against a guy who could well play any 2 this way and will be more than willing to get it in with a lot worse. He's also pretty unlikely to slow down on the turn regardless of what he has. Easy shove for value.

ba/wb spot. Someone wants to build a big pot. Don't.

ChuckTs said:

ba/wb spot. Someone wants to build a big pot. Don't.

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He seems a bit too loose and aggro to be giving him this much credit imo. I could see him doing this with AT or 77 plus all of his draws as well as 2pair+.

ChuckTs said:

ba/wb spot. Someone wants to build a big pot. Don't.

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We have quite a lot of equity against his range.

rowhousepd said:

Board: 9d 8d Th
Hero: 48.97% { JsJc }
Villain: 51.03% { TT-88,ATs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,KdTd,QdTd,ATo,QJo,JTo,T9o,9 8o }

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This looks like a pretty fair distribution and includes all the villains 2pr, set and straight hands. Folding feels weak, calling will more often than not just make the hand harder to play and wont necessarily offer us any extra equity with regards to getting away from better hands or getting it in better against worse hands. I think just shove and take the flip is the best of a crappy situation.

Really skimmed this one too quickly without looking at the info, sorry guys.

Yeah I'm not folding against this type of player. As soon as top pairs and random fluah draws are in his range we can't really fold. His range is probably actually wider than row's suggested one imo.

ChuckTs said:

His range is probably actually wider than row's suggested one imo.

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Yarp I agree with that. OP just in case you were wondering you would only need 42.5% equity or better for shove > fold.

Why 42.5%? Oddly specific number.

LD1977 said:

Why 42.5%? Oddly specific number.

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If you're not sure how to calculate pot odds yet, it'd be a good idea to do some reading up on it. It comes in handy.

3.57 / 8.42 = ~0.424

Current pot after MP1 raises is 1.95 (0.52 + 0.39 + his 1.04 raise).

If we shove for 3.57 and villain calls for the difference of 2.92 (3.57-1.04+0.39) it is going to be:

1.95 + 3.57 + 2.92 = 8.44

Right?

LD1977 said:

Current pot after MP1 raises is 1.95 (0.52 + 0.39 + his 1.04 raise).

If we shove for 3.57 and villain calls for the difference of 2.92 (3.57-1.04+0.39) it is going to be:

1.95 + 3.57 + 2.92 = 8.44

Right?

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That's correct. If we end up all in then it's (our remaining stack / assumed final pot total) then x100 if you want % instead of decimal.