$4 NLHE Full Ring: JJ vs 3 TAGs prob facing full house

rowhousepd

rowhousepd

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/14/3.8

I'm playing at a pretty tight table in this hand against three tags. Villain in SB is 17/14/3.8 & 3bets 8%, a little high; others are similar.

Merge Network $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
Hand History Converter
BB: $2.94
UTG: $4.25
UTG+1: $3.67
MP1: $7.84
MP2: $6.44
Hero (CO): $4.08
BTN: $4.28
SB: $4.27

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is CO with J
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J
diamond.gif

4 folds, Hero raises to $0.16, BTN calls $0.16, SB raises to $0.59, BB calls $0.55, Hero calls $0.43, BTN calls $0.43

First off, do I call preflop w/ all that action? I'm thinking this might get ugly, and w/ these other tight players stacks may be going down w/ PP vs PP.​
Flop: ($2.36) 7
spade.gif
4
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4
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(4 players)
SB bets $1.25, BB folds, Hero calls $1.25, BTN folds

Paired flop makes me think I'm ahead of a lot here. Most AK/AQ type hands missed, medium pairs missed their sets (except for 77, but that's iffy.) The 4's don't scare me. So I call. I'm probably facing 88+ and maybe AsKs who's semi-bluffing (or is that loose?). If that's the case my equity is ~48%.
Turn: ($4.86) 4
diamond.gif
(2 players)
SB bets $2.43 all in
Hero???

Turn, he shoves. Looks like he had a PP and now a boat. Question is which one's better. I think I have to call here. But should have have folded the flop? or even folded preflop for that matter vs three TAGs?​
 
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baudib1

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Don't think I've ever open-folded JJ from any position in any game.

This is a ridiculously standard spot.

raise flop

snap call turn

Turn is a simple pot-odds/equity calculation.

We are getting exactly 3-1 on a call. Impossible to put villain on a range here where we don't easily have 33%:

1. He is tight and in the SB, so 4x for quads is unlikely.
2. He 3-bets a fair amount and is OOP vs. a LP raiser (you) and a BTN flat, which is very weak. He should be 3-betting most hands that beat us almost all the time pre (QQ+).
3. Villain can easily be value-betting a worse hand such as A7s, 88-TT.
4. There's a non-zero chance he has a random bluff like AQ.
5. The most likely hand that beats us is 77, which would make sense given his preflop flat. However, he might not always play 77 this way, and that's two combos anyway.

If villain's shoving range is 77+, A7, A4, we have 48% equity. I think this is incredibly unlikely, as he would 3-bet QQ+ most of the time and rarely show up with A4.

More realistically:

Board: 7s 4s 4c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.993% 80.07% 01.92% 916 22.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 18.007% 16.08% 01.92% 184 22.00 { JJ-77, AsQs, A7s }

Here he's value-shoving full-houses that we're ahead of except 77, plus 1 combo of a bluff (AQss). We're destroying his value range, only worried about 77, and his random bluff has 7 outs. Fistpump call. Villain will also show up with the occasional worse pp like 55-66, thinking you missed this flop and then "ZOMG FULLHOUSE."
 
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RVladimiro

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A $2.43 bet into a $4.86 pot is just 1/2 pot bet really. If you were leading, you'd probably bet more than that, so the fact that he shoved is just psycological no?

If he got a boat, so did you, let's see who has the bigger one. I think I would call there although that PF 3bet makes me wonder who is dead beat. He may have AQs or AKs or even AJs and that shove is just semi-bluff. There are so many hands we beat here that I think calling is quite easy.

...but that PF 3bet... hmmmm...
 
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baudib1

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oh

F me, I didn't see preflop 3-bet.

my bad.

4-bet ship it in preflop ainec.

This is JJ vs. top 5%


Board: 7s 4s 4c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.909% 49.80% 01.11% 986 22.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 49.091% 47.98% 01.11% 950 22.00 { 77+, AKs, AsQs }


If you take out the unpaired hands we still have 46%


Board: 7s 4s 4c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.761% 45.51% 01.25% 801 22.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 53.239% 51.99% 01.25% 915 22.00 { 77+ }

Also I think, because he 3-bets a reasonably wide range, he'll have A4s more often than when he flats, but we still call.
 
rssurfer54

rssurfer54

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oh

F me, I didn't see preflop 3-bet.

my bad.

4-bet ship it in preflop ainec.

I was reading your other post and had to go back to make sure I read it right :)

This though.
 
O

orangepeeleo

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oh

F me, I didn't see preflop 3-bet.

my bad.

4-bet ship it in preflop ainec.

This is JJ vs. top 5%


Board: 7s 4s 4c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.909% 49.80% 01.11% 986 22.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 49.091% 47.98% 01.11% 950 22.00 { 77+, AKs, AsQs }


If you take out the unpaired hands we still have 46%


Board: 7s 4s 4c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.761% 45.51% 01.25% 801 22.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 53.239% 51.99% 01.25% 915 22.00 { 77+ }

Also I think, because he 3-bets a reasonably wide range, he'll have A4s more often than when he flats, but we still call.

But he doesnt call a shove with 77. You can't just say, heres the equity vs 77+ because he doesnt call a shove with that whole range, and when he folds we've let him avoid mistakes, bar his 3b/f turning into a bluff etc etc
Which makes this a really shit spot with the BB calling along, nothing we beat calls a shove pf, we're either flipping or crushed if called.

I dont actually know what the best line is, if we flat we're effectively set-mining b/c its gonna be hard to continue after facing a cbet on a flop with overs
 
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baudib1

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that's our equity on the board vs. 77+

villain is pretty aggro for FR and 3-bets wide, there's a ton of dead money already in. shipping JJ as LP raiser vs. wide 3-bettor in blinds is pretty standard imo.
 
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orangepeeleo

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I think i'd like to know his fold to steal stat and how many hands we have on villain before snap-shoving JJ pf, that 8% 3bet could mean nothing over a small sample

EDIT: Also need to know how the BB plays really.
 
ChuckTs

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+1 to sample size being important. In general there's enough money in squeezed spots not to fold JJ pf but villain's tightness in 3bet/4bet spots is important. I generally stack here given the read over any sample bigger than like 50 or 100 hands.

But he doesnt call a shove with 77

Just a point on this line of thinking: If it is converged properly, then there's a point to make: JJ can be profitable to stack vs any range %6.5 or wider, regardless of how he plays vs your 4bet. That's not to say it's the best play, but it's mathematically profitable. I'm a bit lazy to do the maths right now, but that means he could be 3betting all air, and fold it all vs your 4bet, and you'd profit [the profit comes from purely the dead money he leaves on the table]. He could also be 3betting just purely for value, the top %8 of hands, and you'd still profit.
 
rowhousepd

rowhousepd

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Aaaah. I'm confused, guys. But lemme respond to a couple these....


A $2.43 bet into a $4.86 pot is just 1/2 pot bet really. If you were leading, you'd probably bet more than that, so the fact that he shoved is just psycological no?

If he got a boat, so did you, let's see who has the bigger one. I think I would call there although that PF 3bet makes me wonder who is dead beat. He may have AQs or AKs or even AJs and that shove is just semi-bluff. There are so many hands we beat here that I think calling is quite easy.

...but that PF 3bet... hmmmm...

As I suggested in my op, I think I'm my eq is ~48%, so the shove of half the pot seems like a coin flop. But maybe that range wasn't accurate to begin with. I think more or less that's like { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+ }. Am I off there? So on the flop there's basically those three PP that are beating me now (AA, QQ, JJ) which = 18 combos, correctt? Could someone help me with the math here -- what do I do exactly with that number?

4-bet ship it in preflop ainec.

This is JJ vs. top 5%


Board: 7s 4s 4c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.909% 49.80% 01.11% 986 22.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 49.091% 47.98% 01.11% 950 22.00 { 77+, AKs, AsQs }


If you take out the unpaired hands we still have 46%


Board: 7s 4s 4c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.761% 45.51% 01.25% 801 22.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 53.239% 51.99% 01.25% 915 22.00 { 77+ }

Also I think, because he 3-bets a reasonably wide range, he'll have A4s more often than when he flats, but we still call.

Ok I may be way off here, but after SB's reraise and BB's call (forgetting about Btn behind me), I'm definitely facing 2 villain. SB w/ 8% and let's say the tight BB calls w/ ~10%. Stove says my eq is 39% in this situation. Does that seem right? :confused:

I dont actually know what the best line is, if we flat we're effectively set-mining b/c its gonna be hard to continue after facing a cbet on a flop with overs

Yeah, I think I was essentially set mining, which I believe was not a good idea. If I need about 20x bet sizeto call (pretty standard set-mine rule I believe) that would mean I'd need a possible $8.60 prize to make it worth it. Yes, no?

Just a point on this line of thinking: If it is converged properly, then there's a point to make: JJ can be profitable to stack vs any range %6.5 or wider, regardless of how he plays vs your 4bet. That's not to say it's the best play, but it's mathematically profitable. I'm a bit lazy to do the maths right now, but that means he could be 3betting all air, and fold it all vs your 4bet, and you'd profit [the profit comes from purely the dead money he leaves on the table]. He could also be 3betting just purely for value, the top %8 of hands, and you'd still profit.
Uuug. Help. Brain hurts. :eek:
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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My post was just about making the point that if his true (ie with a large enough sample size) 3bet % is over %6.5, you will profit by stacking preflop 100bbs deep. There is no way to argue against it.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Math proof I wrote up from another thread/forum for those so inclined, which also happened to be with JJ, albeit not a squeeze spot:

100bb stacks, sizing for open/3b/4b is as follows:

3bb-11-25

Assume villain 5bet shoves or folds to our 4bet.

EV(fold)+EV(allin) = EV(total)

P(fold)*O(fold) + P(allin)*O(allin) = EV(total)


Assuming villain stacks QQ+, AK (%2.6).

2.6/6.5 = %40

0.60*(11+3+0.5) + 0.4*(200*0.362) = $37.66 [$200 should be $200.5, insignificant difference obv]


Assuming villain stacks AA only (%0.9).

0.9/6.5 = %13.8

(1-.138)*(11+3+0.5) + .138*(200*0.186) = $17.6326


Assuming villain has %100 air in 3b range:

1*(14.5) +0*(whatever) = $14.50


Assuming villain has completely depolarized range and never folds to 4b:

0*(11+3+0.5) + 1*(200*0.54) = $108
 
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Gunner57

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your playing .02/.04 and giving these players way too much credit. IMO. Unless I have played someone at these stakes for a few hundred hands, see tight stats, recognize them, and played with them in more than one or 2 sessions I do not give them the respect you are showing. Yes they could have QQ, KK, AA but that is ALL you are loosing to. If they have it pay them off in the long run you will be good.

PreFlop- you should 4 bet it and get Ax and small pocket pairs out. If you dont raise BTN has odds to call a wide range. Or if you really think SB pr BB has QQ-AA just fold it.

Flop- you raise all in. Are you really going to fold at this point? Calling here is a HUGE mistake IMO. All you do is put more money in a pot and give him a chance to catch up or bluff you out of a pot. If he has AA-QQ then too late to turn back now as the flop really should not have improved anyone or you just have somone with a high flush draw.

Turn- Call here with a boat of your own. He could be raising here with AQ-AK. Also he could have A4, 77 (unlikely, but again reason why you 4 bet the flop to get A4, and 77 off of set mining) 88-AA is likely what he has.... I call. (also have to figure at least one A and/or K is out due to BB and BTN calling pre they had to have had at least some high cards to call pre.

They could have a better hand however I dont think you can really fold here. If you would fold at anytime after the flop, you should have folded preflop. See him turn over the cards and expect to win at least 50-70% of the time.
 
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