$4 NLHE Full Ring: Gutshot draw vs Straight flush draw HELP WITH EQUITY

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27unsuited

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Hi,

I'm newbie with equity and all the stuff, so I practice exercices at my home with cards and simulate hand that Villain can have against me. I check my answer with poker stove to see if i'm right on the spot!

Here my last exercice, and I don't understand why I cannot arrive to the right equity:

Hero: 10s 9h

Villain: 4s 5s

Flop: 2d 8s 6s


If I count my outs, I have 7 outs (so with 4/2 rules, it's above 28% equity).

And Villain have 18 outs. (72%)

Why the good equity is :

Hero :40%

Villain :60%

I understand that the 4/2 rules it's approximative but.....

Thank you for the help

P.S.

I really love poker and I want to randomize many situation each days to catch the game and level up my game.
 
PaxMundi

PaxMundi

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Ten high is ahead on the flop so doesn't need to hit any outs.But if the turn and river are both dealt it's basically a coin flop as 45s has a double gutshot flush draw and pair outs.
 
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Gildog89

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I think with 2 cards remaining the equity is actually

hero 46%
villain 54%

a coin toss.

Yes, hero is currently ahead on the flop, so you don't need to hit outs to win. There is also a runner runner better flush possibility that has to be accounted for where villain goes ahead, then hero wins the hand. Also, villain has 17 outs (you hold one of the spades). There are scenarios where you both hit outs, and hero has a better hand (like turn 3c, river 7h). They all factor in to equity calculations.
 
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