$4 NLHE Full Ring: Good Application of WA/WB???

pokerman27

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$4 NL HE Full Ring: Good Application of WA/WB???

Is this the correct play here to check behind on the flop and bet when checked to again on a non-scare card?


full tilt poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 885431
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
UTG+1: $2.68
Hero (MP1): $2.35
MP2: $1.95
CO: $1.97
BTN: $0.48
SB: $2.34
BB: $2.50
UTG: $1.34
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP1 with J J
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.10, 3 folds, SB calls $0.09, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.22) Q 9 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($0.22) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.14, SB folds
 
bgomez89

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That's fine but I think cbetting isn't bad here as villain probably doesn't have a Q that much and the board is paired
 
c9h13no3

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I think cbetting isn't bad here as villain probably doesn't have a Q that much and the board is paired
Explain why this means we should c-bet (not saying you're wrong).
 
Makwa

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I like a bet on flop, he may fold overs here, check-raise means trouble... if you check he can bet turn and put you to a decision... and the 7s put a fl draw on board so he could make semi-bluff here... but would be less inclined with you as PF raiser and C better in position...

I do appreciate the wisdom of the WAWB small ball approach https://www.cardschat.com/f49/wa-wb-concept-76525/

But thinking he called PF raise w overs, I dont want to give him a free card.
 
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c9h13no3

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But thinking he called PF raise w overs, I dont want to give him a free card.
You realize there is only one hand that has two overs to our pair right? So you're essentially putting him on AK.

And even if he had AK, and he didn't 3-bet preflop, then he'd only have a 12% chance of spiking an A or K on the turn. That's certainly worth giving him the opportunity to bluff. And if we're going to let him bluff at it, I'd prefer to have him stab at the pot when we check back rather than check/raise me off of the best hand.

Do you just shoot from the hip when you write hand analysis posts? Because you could be costing people money and a lot of frustration if you give them junky advice.
 
WVHillbilly

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Well played imo. AK is very unlikely (who flats from the SB with AK?) and even that only has 6 outs. Keep him around with all his small pair type hands and you might pick up a bet or 2 on the turn/river.
 
Makwa

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You realize there is only one hand that has two overs to our pair right? So you're essentially putting him on AK.

And even if he had AK, and he didn't 3-bet preflop, then he'd only have a 12% chance of spiking an A or K on the turn. That's certainly worth giving him the opportunity to bluff. And if we're going to let him bluff at it, I'd prefer to have him stab at the pot when we check back rather than check/raise me off of the best hand.

Do you just shoot from the hip when you write hand analysis posts? Because you could be costing people money and a lot of frustration if you give them junky advice.

Ya, I meant AN over, realized the mistake and came back to fix but connection crashed... and yes chances of him catching are low (6%)... still see the C bet as viable option (he will likely bet turn otherwise, and 7s is a semi-scare card, not a brick), but checking for value on flop when he is WB (which is the case here) is better. Will shoot straighter in future...
 
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bgomez89

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Explain why this means we should c-bet (not saying you're wrong).

i knew i was setting myself up for this. I was thinking that maybe by cbetting we can get more value out of small pair hands(or if villain is feeling lucky gutshots) that wont fold to a cbet. I guess what i'm saying is that villain could call with worse on the flop so why not bet and get some value. I could be wrong, i mean im still used to playing like "raise pre, cbet on dryish boards or boards with pairs/draws etc.
 
WVHillbilly

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i knew i was setting myself up for this. I was thinking that maybe by cbetting we can get more value out of small pair hands(or if villain is feeling lucky gutshots) that wont fold to a cbet. I guess what i'm saying is that villain could call with worse on the flop so why not bet and get some value. I could be wrong, i mean im still used to playing like "raise pre, cbet on dryish boards or boards with pairs/draws etc.

In my experience people rarely call with small pairs on paired boards. If anything they fold too often to cbets when the board is paired.
 
c9h13no3

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I was thinking that maybe by cbetting we can get more value out of small pair hands(or if villain is feeling lucky gutshots)
I like your line of thinking. I don't agree with it, but I like this way of thinking a lot more than just "omg, overs could come, we need to bet".

Here's the reasons I disagree with it:

1) Not a ton of value here. I made up a range for what villain could call a flop c-bet with. You can tweak it how you like, but it seems decent to me.

Board: Qs 9h 9d
Hand 0: 45.253% { TT-55, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo-AJo, KJo+, QJo, JTo }
Hand 1: 54.747% { JdJh }

If there is value here, its very thin. And this assumes that he always calls with his gut shots (that he doesn't turn them into a bluff). We really need our opponent to be calling with ace highs and other similar hands in order to make this v-bet profitable. And we need him to never check/raise bluff this board. That seems like quite a parlay to avoid.

2) We have showdown value, and the hands we want value from will probably only give us 1 street of value. Thus, checking the flop helps us accomplish both of these goals. It sets a limit on the pot size for us, and helps us get closer to showdown.

3) Inducing bluffs gets a little extra money out of his range. Normally at 2NL, inducing bluffs isn't a great reason to do anything (because our opponents aren't much for bluffing). But if we can get our opponent to stab at this once in a while with a few extra hands that aren't included in the range above, it helps us eek out some more EV from this situation.

Board: Qs 9h 9d 7s
Hand 0: 41.477% { TT-55, AJs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo-ATo, KJo+, QJo, JTo }
Hand 1: 58.523% { JdJh }

You've got the right idea, that you're looking thin value at micro stakes. If the board was wetter, and our opponent had more 2nd pairs & draws to call with, I'd like a bet more. But in this spot, against an unknown, I'd just play it standard WA/WB.
 
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