$4 NLHE Full Ring: Bottom set vs. rivered flush??

S

Sohmurr

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$4 NL HE Full Ring: Bottom set vs. rivered flush??

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 28/3/0.2

full tilt poker Game #11143307109: Table Palatial - $0.01/$0.02 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:42:06 ET - 2009/03/14
Seat 1: Mackd4ddy ($0.40)
Seat 2: CRAZYJILL6 ($1.76)
Seat 3: BlitzKeg ($0.67)
Seat 4: PokerBam ($1.35)
Seat 5: Sohmurr ($2.65)
Seat 6: EyeFartedLOL ($2.36)
Seat 7: Dwizzlebaby ($1.98)
Seat 8: skinsfan76 ($2.07)
Seat 9: Mad Dogg McFie ($1.95)
PokerBam posts the small blind of $0.01
Sohmurr posts the big blind of $0.02
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sohmurr [4d 4h]
EyeFartedLOL folds
Dwizzlebaby calls $0.02
skinsfan76 calls $0.02
Mad Dogg McFie folds
Mackd4ddy calls $0.02
CRAZYJILL6 calls $0.02
BlitzKeg calls $0.02
PokerBam folds
Sohmurr checks
*** FLOP *** [4s Jc 8s]
Sohmurr checks
Dwizzlebaby checks
skinsfan76 bets $0.10
Mackd4ddy folds
CRAZYJILL6 folds
BlitzKeg folds
Sohmurr has 15 seconds left to act
Sohmurr raises to $0.27
Dwizzlebaby folds
skinsfan76 calls $0.17
*** TURN *** [4s Jc 8s] 6
Sohmurr has 15 seconds left to act
Sohmurr bets $0.40
skinsfan76 has 15 seconds left to act
skinsfan76 calls $0.40
*** RIVER *** [4s Jc 8s 6d] 9♠
Sohmurr has 15 seconds left to act
Sohmurr ?????

Stats were over only 38 hands, and I was multi-tabling so not very strong read on him. Villian's flop call could be a pair of J, flush draw, or maybe open ended straight draw. 2-pair and higher set is less likely because I could be check-raising with a strong draw myself and he would probably reraise me so I figure as of the flop I'm still good. The turn 6 is very innocuous as it misses the flush draw and only fills a small gut-shot straight (which is unlikely as he only flat calls my turn bet anyway). I make a heavy bet on the turn which he calls. Unfortunately the river hits the flush and puts some more possible straights out there. So, should I make a small defensive bet or check? If I check and he bets small, can I call? If he bets big? What is his betting range here? His aggression factor is low but there aren't any strong stats on his river play, making a solid read here difficult.
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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First nobody is responding because you didn't convert your hand history. Make sure you do that next time.

Secondly this is $2nl not $4nl. Again, just something to keep in mind.

Lastly, that 9 of spades is one of the worst river cards. Check and re-evaluate, hopefully he bets small and you can look him up.
 
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Sohmurr

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Yeah, I did forget to convert the hand history; sorry about that. However, when I posted the hand there was no option for $2NL so I had to choose the nearest option. I can't really be faulted for not all the blind levels being on the drop-down menu (although I may have overlooked it somehow, but I'm pretty sure I didn't). Actually, it happened on another post I made a few days or a week ago where the blinds I was playing at weren't listed although that was a limit game, not that it should matter.

Anyway, here is the converted history:

Stacks:
MP3 with $0.40
CO with $1.76
BTN with $0.67
SB with $1.35
BB with $2.65
UTG with $2.36
UTG+1 with $1.98
MP1 with $2.07
MP2 with $1.95



hand.pl

Blinds: $0.01/$0.02
Site: Full Tilt Poker
Dealt to BB:4♦ 4♥
Sklansky group 7
Preflop:
1 players fold.
UTG+1 calls [$0.02]
MP1 calls [$0.02]
1 players fold.
MP3 calls [$0.02]
CO calls [$0.02]
BTN calls [$0.02]
Hero checks
1 players folded.
Total folds this street: 3
Potsize: $0.13
Flop:
4♠ J♣ 8♠
Hero checks
UTG+1 checks
MP1 bets [$0.10]
4 players fold.
Hero raises to $0.27
1 players fold.
MP1 calls [$0.17]
Total folds this street: 4
Potsize: $0.67
Turn:
6♦
Hero bets [$0.40]
MP1 calls [$0.40]
Potsize: $1.47
River:
9♠
Hero ?????

I'll give it some more time before I show my river action.
 
Steveg1976

Steveg1976

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Bet more on the flop, the pot is .27 you can raise probably to .50-.75 and still get called by worse hands, as this guy appears to be a calling station.

So lets say you raise to .60 just for an example now the pot will be 1.47 on the turn and there is about 1.50 behind you can shove here. Now there is no tough river decision has he can no longer bluff you off the pot.

FWIW - I say never fold a set a 2nl, as the few times you do lose will be far outnumbered by the times villians show up with with weird missed drawn and 1 pair hands they tried turning in to bluffs.

As played - I check/call a shove here, I am checking to hopefully get him to bluff at the scare card, and as he is so passive he might check the straight back afraid of the flush.
 
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Sohmurr

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River:
9♠
Hero checks
MP1 bets [$1]
Hero ?????


Ok, so, I ended up checking the river. The decision is between calling and folding. The bet is about 2/3 pot and there is almost nothing I can beat. All I can beat is a complete bluff. Given my opponent's stats (especially the low aggression factor), he seems unlikely to bet here most of the time even with a hand like two pair or a pair which is pretty much all I beat. So, should I call? If I fold here, could I call if he had made a smaller bet even though I'd still likely be beat?
 
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