$4 NLHE 6-max: Would you fold the river

888 Poker - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 55.75 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, hands: 2)
UTG: 125 BB (VPIP: 17.43, PFR: 14.68, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 109)
CO: 50.25 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
BTN: 35 BB (VPIP: 25.50, PFR: 11.41, 3Bet Preflop: 1.89, Hands: 153)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T:club: 8:club:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (4 BB, 2 players) 5:diamond: T:heart: T:spade:
Hero bets 3 BB, BB calls 3 BB

Turn: (10 BB, 2 players) Q:heart:
Hero bets 7.5 BB, BB calls 7.5 BB

River: (25 BB, 2 players) 2:heart:
Hero bets 18.75 BB, BB raises to 43.25 BB, fold

BB wins 59.5 BB

some notes:I belive that i should have raised more in the SB;
at the flop i think i shouldve bet around 15/16c;
turn bet maybe 34/36c;
river i think I shouldve called,given i was getting around 3.5:1 odds but he could be calling flop and turn with a 10x hand.a flush i dont really believe it but it could happen.i also had only 2 hands on this player.what do you think?

With not enough read on the villain,it was a good fold.

O man Taco, that's brutal.

I've been staring at your post for an hour and I've decided it's an easy fold. lawlz :marchmell

First: If we are putting faith in this idea that we need to know a little about an opponent before we can play properly, then why play him OOP from the blinds? Either raise more or fold.

Then,
Any ten would raise flop, and if they didn't, they'd raise turn for sure. Also, there is just the fact that the fourth ten from the deck is hard to have. So he didn't have a ten.

The only hands you beat (that could have taken that call,call, raise line) really are only KK and AA... a lot of players like to be trappy with them and they do the suspicious all-in river bet... and a lot of players cant help but to get it in with these types of hands.


so 12 combos you beat for aces+kings. This could be less likely since people tend to re raise at some point in the hand earlier than the river.
12 combos to which you lose for the set of 2s that made a house, and the 9 combos of suited cards that include , which would be the most logical flush that hit.

So you win 12 for 12 losses, or 12 of 48 losses depending how you look at it if he went hog wild with a back door flush draw

Then there are your pot odds. 62.5 BB, and the bet to call is 24.5

So if my math is right, it looks like a call. Then again, I suck more at math than I do at poker, which is an impressive amount of suckage. I hope to dear god I'm not spreading misinformation, so if anyone can double check or correct my logic please let me know.

But that's just the math of it. In reality, it'd be a fold, most people wouldn't bet 2 pair like that if one of those pairs is on the board already. Lol. Nice to think about though.

I like the analysis by the Colonel. Personally I would call here. The two reasons are that you are getting agood price and there are plenty of hands that you beat here. Any Qx hand might consider raising here just figuring you are barrelling. Its hard for him to put you on a ten.
The second reason is for information on the player on your immediate left. If you are sitting down for a while and he was across the table i may fold but here i want to know what he has. 6 handed there will be a lot of blind on blind action with him.
That information is worth paying for. Another reason to call is that it shows you are sticky which means he will bluff you less. At these stakes he could turn over almost anything. Sure he might have a backdoor flush if he does then he made a mistake calling the turn with the wrong odds. You dont want him floating you all day. Also dont show him your fold here otherwise be prepared to be bluffed mercilessly.

I tend to call here.

Aside from pot odds as you mentioned above, there are many hands we can beat.