$4 NLHE 6-max: What could LAG have here?

$4 NL HE 6-max: What could LAG have here?

I wake up with QQ on BTN. MP limps. I raise to 18c. SB folds, BB calls. MP calls too.

Flop is 10 8 5 rainbow. Two checks. I bet 40c into the 56c pot. BB flats. MP folds.

The turn is a 9d, which sets up a flush draw and possibly completes a str. BB immediately bets half the pot.

I've seen this guy steal a couple of pots. He's not afraid to fire three barrels to bluff. I saw him shove with a busted flush draw and 9 high.

I don't think he would bet out if he completed his straight, though QJ is certainly within his range. It's possible he was floating and since I had been playing tight, he could just be trying to steal here. He could easily have something like A10 or KJ.Then again, he could have caught a set on the flop. I really didn't have a firm idea what he had because the way he plays, he could have had a very wide range of hands here.

I have about $2.50 left. The pot is now a little over $2.

What to do here?

My gut said I was likely still ahead, but earlier in a similar situation (another table, another villain) I shoved with a set of 4s and it turns out the guy had made a straight on the flop, so I was doubting my read here.

The question is how often do you want to put your entire stack in with a pair and a gutshot, even against a lag player. Finding the balance between playing smart, not risking large amounts with low ranking hands, and not playing scared and allowing the lag to run you over can be difficult. Can't honestly give solid advise because I don't have enough info to develop a gut feeling.

dwolfg said:

The question is how often do you want to put your entire stack in with a pair and a gutshot, even against a lag player. Finding the balance between playing smart, not risking large amounts with low ranking hands, and not playing scared and allowing the lag to run you over can be difficult. Can't honestly give solid advise because I don't have enough info to develop a gut feeling.

Click to expand...

Thats about as solid as it gets.. in terms of advice.. Lags might be all over the place in terms of how they play but the fact is they still hit every now and then too. I hear play TAG all the time but in reality to me you should be playing TAG with loose tendancies... just my personal opinion.

QJ is obviously very discounted considering you hold 2 Queens.

His range is lots of pairs + draws / 2 pair/ bottom end of the straight. I think with the $$s in the pot and the fact that he likely stacks on the turn with all his pair + draw hands that I just go ahead and raise (not sure without stacks it that would just be a shove or something less).

I decided to just call the turn bet and hit Jd on the river giving me a str but made it 3 diamonds on the board. He instashoved which to me suggested he was planning to shove no matter what came on the river and was most likely trying to scare me off.

Pretty easy call for me, and he only had AK.

I am not sure if I would have called a river shove if I didn’t hit the str. I think I still would have depending on what the river card is. He had shoved on the river at least 3 times and might have done more while I wasn’t watching.