$4 NLHE 6-max: TPTK vs. river raise. Learn to bet-fold?

ManicLombax

ManicLombax

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 37/14/1.15

Hi folks. I normally play tournaments, but thought I'd try to improve my cash game and grind some micros.

Based on his stats over 64 hands, CO's calling range is going to be pretty wide. Even so, on the flop, I doubt he has a two, possibly A2. I'd say calling here he probably has a small pocket pair, ace high, or is slow playing 33. After the turn call his range is probably weighted more toward an ace. I'd expect he'd 3-bet TT+,AQ+ preflop, but probably not enough hands to get an accurate 3-bet stat (it was about 5%). I'd think he's raise A2,33 on the turn, but not necessarily.

The river raise is gross though. It's only $1 more to win $4 roughly, but even getting 4:1 I can't figure out what I beat. I doubt he's doing this with AQ or worse. Maaaybe AK. Maybe he's spazzing with a mid pocket pair or something. On the other hand I can't find many hands that beat me in his range either. A3,A2,AJ,33? I think he'd 3-bet JJ preflop almost always.

Learn to bet-fold, or crying call here?


Revolution Gaming Network - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $4.73
BB: $9.58
UTG: $2.21
Hero (MP): $3.91
CO: $2.93
BTN: $6.23

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has K:spade: A:spade:

fold, Hero raises to $0.12, CO calls $0.12, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.30, 2 players) 3:heart: 2:spade: 2:club:
Hero bets $0.20, CO calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.70, 2 players) A:heart:
Hero bets $0.47, CO calls $0.47

River: ($1.64, 2 players) J:spade:
Hero bets $1.10, CO raises to $2.14 and is all-in, Hero sighs...
 
B

beerzy

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After all the action, I'm not to excicted about it but it's clearly a call...
Not even considering a fold there even knowing that I'm beat like 60% of the times after his line.
Prob against AJ, or some A, jacks would have played it more agressive imo.
 
TylerN

TylerN

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only need 17%. call


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

30 games 0.000 secs 6,000 games/sec

Board: 3h 2s 2c Ah Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.333% 73.33% 00.00% 22 0.00 { JJ, 33, AQs-AJs, A2s, K2s, AQo-AJo, A2o, K2o }
Hand 1: 26.667% 26.67% 00.00% 8 0.00 { AsKs }


---

if you put in all his value hands (K2 is very unlikely but w/e) and just add in AQ we have clearly enough
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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54 is probably also in villain's range?
 
ManicLombax

ManicLombax

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54 is probably also in villain's range?

You'd think if he were going to raise with 54 he'd have done it on a previous street where he had some fold equity. But I suppose this is a $4 game, so possible.
 
JCgrind

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not a fan of value betting the river, but ye as played its a call for sure. i agree that were virtually always beat, but were relying on villain being enough of a retard to make this a profitable call most of the time

completely different board, but the message here is the same;

poker stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1935319
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $26.17
UTG: $42.00
Hero (CO): $38.66
BTN: $25.12
SB: $14.85

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with 9
spade.gif
J
spade.gif

1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 7
club.gif
J
club.gif
4
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $1.11, BTN calls $1.11

Turn: ($4.07) K
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $2.13, BTN calls $2.13

River: ($8.33) 9
diamond.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $4.25, BTN raises to $21.13 all in, Hero folds

Final Pot: $16.83
BTN wins $16.07
(Rake: $0.76)

its as simple as 'we really dont beat anything'
 
ManicLombax

ManicLombax

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not a fan of value betting the river, but ye as played its a call for sure.

Not arguing with you, but can you explain why you wouldn't value bet here? I know TPTK isn't a monster, but seems like everything missed, and we might get a worse ace to call often enough. As I said, trying to get better at cash, but this doesn't seem all that thin to me.
 
JCgrind

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i assume youre talking about your hand, in which case..

SB: $4.73
BB: $9.58
UTG: $2.21
Hero (MP): $3.91
CO: $2.93
BTN: $6.23

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has K<font color='black'>♠</font> A<font color='black'>♠</font>

fold, Hero raises to $0.12, CO calls $0.12, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.30, 2 players) 3<font color='red'>♥</font> 2<font color='black'>♠</font> 2<font color='black'>♣</font>
Hero bets $0.20, CO calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.70, 2 players) A<font color='red'>♥</font>
Hero bets $0.47, CO calls $0.47

River: ($1.64, 2 players) J<font color='black'>♠</font>
Hero bets $1.10, CO raises to $2.14 and is all-in, Hero sighs...[/QUOTE]

if we wanna get a worse ace to call, we have to assume that he called the flop with a worse ace. since theres no FD, how does he have a worse ace (apart from when hes a total tard.) if he has an ace, he obv calls the turn when it peels, but then does he really min the river when you x3 barrel?

like obv you havent provided stats so i cant comment super accurately, but i cant see villain playing a random ace like this unless i have stats to encourage me. apart from that, checking with the intention of calling gives us the added advantage of picking of spew bluffs OTR
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I'd bet/fold this river a little smaller. Its going to be tough to get medium pairs 44-TT to call us, but there are also worse aces in his range. The smaller bet will allow you to fold easier, and it'll make those weak hands with showdown value have a bit of an easier call.

We're not good 1 out of 5 times on this riv when we're raised. Pretty simple bet/fold if villain isn't loopy.
 
ManicLombax

ManicLombax

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i assume youre talking about your hand

Yep

If he has an ace, he obv calls the turn when it peels,
but then does he really min the river when you x3 barrel?

That was my question in the OP, but you were telling me to check the river.

like obv you havent provided stats so i cant comment super accurately, but i cant see villain playing a random ace like this unless i have stats to encourage me. apart from that, checking with the intention of calling gives us the added advantage of picking of spew bluffs OTR

Stats are at the top of the post (this is only 64 hands):
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 37/14/1.15
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Yeah, really if we're good here 17% of the time, its because villain has turned 44 or something into a bluff. And at 4NL I'm giving them zero credit for that sort of play. This is going to be 54, 2x, 33, AJ, JJ the vast majority of the time.
 
ManicLombax

ManicLombax

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You'd think if he were going to raise with 54 he'd have done it on a previous street where he had some fold equity. But I suppose this is a $4 game, so possible.

Oops. 54 is definitely in there. I was thinking you were saying he's missed a straight draw and was bluff raising the river. 54 got there. Duh, my bad.
 
JCgrind

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yeah those totally arent the stats we need for this hand, they give us nothing. for this i wanna see how often he folds to Cbets OTF and OTR as well as his river aggression. c9 pointed out to me a little while ago that donks often have a normal looking AggF, but if you check it str by str its really passive up until the river where it then becomes huge. obv really relevant when were trying to pick off bluffs.
 
ManicLombax

ManicLombax

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yeah those totally arent the stats we need for this hand, they give us nothing. for this i wanna see how often he folds to Cbets OTF and OTR as well as his river aggression. c9 pointed out to me a little while ago that donks often have a normal looking AggF, but if you check it str by str its really passive up until the river where it then becomes huge. obv really relevant when were trying to pick off bluffs.

Ah ok, makes sense. I'm sure I have those stats but they're going to be irrelevant with the sample size I have for this guy.

Thanks everyone for the analysis.
 
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