$4 NLHE 6-max: Standard Loose Passive Villain on wet-ish flop, Line Check

$4 NL HE 6-max: Standard Loose Passive Villain on wet-ish flop, Line Check

I'm playing $2NL without a HUD at 'Stars with some random money I have lying around, so don't ask for HUD stats cuz you ain't gonna get 'em. But I'm playing only 1 table while I read some fantasy sites, check my email, and chat with randoms on AIM, so I've got at least a few reads.

Reads

-Limp/calls a ton, essentially never folds preflop. Has also min-raised/called my really big 3-bets a lot.
-I've played two hands against him where he check/min-raised the river. I looked him up once and he had the 2nd nuts (on a hit gutshot).
-I'd guess he has folded to my flop c-bets about 2 out of 8 times.
-Has a bronze star.

Key Decisions

-C-bet this flop?
-Barrel this turn?
-WTF to do on the river?

I think almost all these decisions are pretty close, and you could make a good argument for just about anything. So the key here isn't what line you suggest, but why.



This converter is going to be a cash cow...
pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players

SB: $2.87
BB: $4.01
UTG: $10.37 (Hero)
UTG+1: $3.63
CO: $3.28
Button: $4.80

Preflop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with T♦ A♦ (6 players)
Hero raises to $0.08, 3 folds, SB calls $0.07, BB folds

Flop: ($0.18) 7♠ J♦ Q♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.14, SB calls $0.14

Turn: ($0.46) 6♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.46) J♣ (2 players)
SB bets $0.22, Hero is all like wtf man?

Meh from your reads he sounds like a typical loose/passive drooler. That said I'd check behind because those look like cards that he'd play, if we hit a non-spade(or maybe even a spade) A/K and he bets then we can raise and either take it there or he'll call and we get so extra value from the hands we beat. Then on the river our decision is probably easier.

As played checking the turn is fine and i hate it, but id probably fold river.

I probably don't c-bet the flop (other than out of habit or frustration - this mf'r haasss to fold this time kind of mentality). The fact that he seems to float (used very loosely) a good amount would probably stop me since I can still hit a gut shot, ace or back door flush draw. Without much fold equity on the flop I take the free card.

For turn I like the check behind. The 6 is a blank so I'm not sure what he calls on the flop with that c/f's the turn when a 6c hits.

I'm not sure what to do on the river, which would probably cause me to fold in the heat of battle. It would come down to whether or not there are more missed draws/bluffing hands vs. hands he's betting for value that we can push him off of. If I had to guess I would assume there are more missed draws he is betting since he seems to love calling and playing every hand...i.e. we can't push him off much. For me river would go Fold>Call>Raise.

I double barrel the turn here a lot (perhaps too much) against someone who calls too many cbets. He'll often give up his draws on the turn and occasionally even fold 2nd pair. Also if he calls the turn bet he'll basically never bet the river with a hand our Ace high is good against.

As played I fold the river.

Like I said, I think this is close on every street, so I'll lay out some reasoning here.

Flop - I think this is a check back, but its kinda close. Because I have the gutshot, I don't need the c-bet to work as often. However, if I get check/raised, I'm going to be forgoing a lot of turn cards that could help me. But then again, he's pretty passive, so he won't likely check/raise, but he also won't likely fold. I honestly really can't decide, which is better. If he were deeper, I'd like a bet more, so we have a better shot at cramming it all in if we hit a K or a backdoor flush.

Turn - I don't think we can bet the turn for fold equity. I've seen him call the turn with gutshots before, so AT, AK, Jx, and probably 7x are calling. So the question mostly becomes, can I v-bet ace high here on the turn?

Given this simulation, I'd say no. Maybe if I had turned a flush draw, I'd have enough equity to fire, but bleh, I really think trying to bluff this guy multi-street is pretty ugly. I think at 100NL, the fish usually have learned not to call multiple streets with a gutshot or 2nd pair, so this might be better at the stakes you play WV. But in this spot, I really dislike a 2nd barrel, especially since one of the gutterballs he calls with (89) also turned an open ender, and I don't beat two of the gutshots (AT & AK).


River - Given his play before, I expect him to try and slowplay Jx, or any full house. So when he bets, the only hand I expect a passive guy like this to bet for value is Qx. So given his bet size, I need him to be bluffing 32% of the time to be break even.

I ran a simple simulation here, and grouped Qx with all the hands he could get to the river with that have air. And even if he has Q2 in his range, I pretty much have enough equity to call. Now his VPIP is probably around 60%, so he doesn't likely have the off-suit Q2/Q3/Q4 type hands in his range. So if I remove Q2-Q7 off suit hands, I get 41% equity. So I think the river is probably a call, but that might be results oriented since he showed down 89o. Plus some of his spades will have a pair (like 56s) that he won't turn into a bluff as well, and he'd likely min-raise AK and AQ preflop at least, so we can probably discount those as well.

Course, this assumes that he acts logically and bets his air & queens on the river. I wouldn't be surprised if villain just decided to bet 67 in this spot, because "I haz pair!". So I don't think its a slam dunk to call or anything, and a fold probably has a lot of merit. But I think its fairly close.

There's equity on the flop with the gutshot, overcard, even the Ace high against this guy so almost anything is reasonable imo. bet/check flop, bet/check turn regardless of flop action. Two barreling is an option as his flop call means little either than the pot is getting bigger. If you do two barrel the river is more of a fold than as played because it's more likely that he actually has something.

As played I probably lean slightly toward calling river. It looks like a value bet, but when you bet flop/check turn against this player it's possible he reads that as you have nothing and will fold river to any bet. It also looks like a bet with a missed flush or straight draw. Folding river isn't bad either though.

Yeah, originally I wanted to put a note that only people with like 300 posts or less should reply. But I forgot, and you regulars hit all the high points of the discussion pretty quickly .