$4 NLHE 6-max: river overbet/Jam

J

Jarud

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iPoker, Hold'em No Limit - €0.02/€0.04 - 5 players
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This is a spot I have found myself in on a few occasions, By the river I believe this particular villians range is pretty narrow, infact in this specific hand I managed to deduce villians range to either JJ or QQ, but still got scared. villian plays a pretty standard game at 23/18,2 vpip/pfr/Ag, opens wider on the button as standard an always bets 3xBB regardless of player type in the blinds,
I elect to 3bet/fold pre flop as I usually get a decent amount of fold equity from this guy, and aren't to bothered if he calls, this players 4bet range is capped to KK AA.
I cbet with the intention of taking down the pot, when he calls his range to me looks like ATs JJ,QQ maybe JTs and a few broadway flush draws, unlikely to have any gutters as I have said this player type would have probably folded those, and rasied any sets.
when he checks back the turn his range shrinks to QQ JJ in my eyes.
so im left with a weird spot on the river where I either bet big, or cut my loses and lose a fairly big pot.
can any one help me out with the math? how often does a pot sized bluff here need to get through?
how are my assumptions with villains ranges?
Thanks
 
Aballinamion

Aballinamion

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iPoker, Hold'em No Limit - €0.02/€0.04 - 5 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

This is a spot I have found myself in on a few occasions, By the river I believe this particular villians range is pretty narrow, infact in this specific hand I managed to deduce villians range to either JJ or QQ, but still got scared. villian plays a pretty standard game at 23/18,2 vpip/pfr/Ag, opens wider on the button as standard an always bets 3xBB regardless of player type in the blinds,
I elect to 3bet/fold pre flop as I usually get a decent amount of fold equity from this guy, and aren't to bothered if he calls, this players 4bet range is capped to KK AA.
I cbet with the intention of taking down the pot, when he calls his range to me looks like ATs JJ,QQ maybe JTs and a few broadway flush draws, unlikely to have any gutters as I have said this player type would have probably folded those, and rasied any sets.
when he checks back the turn his range shrinks to QQ JJ in my eyes.
so im left with a weird spot on the river where I either bet big, or cut my loses and lose a fairly big pot.
can any one help me out with the math? how often does a pot sized bluff here need to get through?
how are my assumptions with villains ranges?
Thanks

Hello Jarud, thank you very much for sharing with us, lemme try to help you a little.

Well, if you know your 3-bet calling range of your opponent is very narrow, perhaps you should not try to bluff it. Weak players are ever easily folding JJ+ in spots where SB 3-bets vs BTN.
Plus, your c-bet flop is way too expensive, meaning you are trying to make BTN to fold in a situation where BTN will not find many folds. I would go for 1/3 c-bet 50% of times and check 50% of times on spots like this.
You gotta bet OTF having already planned what you are going to do on later streets, when it comes a Kx, a Qx, an Ax, or it completes a flush, etc, what are you trying to represent OTF betting 1/2 pot and what this action is going to reflect on Turn X and River Y.
OTT it completes a flush of diamonds and here, if you had the King of diamonds you could continue bluffing, representing the nut flush, but you don't own the King of Diamonds, so check turn and check river is not the end of the world.
Consider that many TAGs, NITs, etc are never going to fold QQ postflop, in spite of the the board texture, so I believe you played the hand very well.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
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quant1986

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You need 50% folding frequency to be profitable (if your hand has 0 equity) when using a pot sized bet. But you don't really have that many value combos to balance as played so likely you will overbluff with the exact hand if using that bet size.

Sometimes you just need to give up. I think villain could have some Ax,9x,88 in his turn checking range.
 
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gustav197poker

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I think you played profitably for NL4. If you have an idea about rank V, it is appropriate to take advantage of this information. As your description was, now the turn is bad for hero since the rank V can have many hands that work as bluff catchers, so we have no reason to protect the river, since everything came there for the villain.
Greetings.
 
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fundiver199

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I think, you played the hand well.

Preflop
Definitely on board with 3-betting KQs against a regular as a resteal.

Flop
Also on board with C-betting. You have a gutshot with two overs, and if you can get even A high to fold, its a great result.

Turn
You did hit kind of the perfect scare card for barreling, because its scary for him, but you dont hold a diamond. So checking is probably the most GTO line, but I can see barreling as well against someone, who float a lot on the flop but then give up on the turn.

River
As played I dont see any merit to bluffing the river. You dont block any strong hands, and you dont represent much either.
 
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