$4 NLHE 6-max: QJ in BB; Turned set facing agression

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

CO ($5.17)
Button ($2)
SB ($1.03)
Hero (BB) ($2.36)
UTG ($2.17)
MP ($5.13)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J , Q
UTG bets $0.06, MP calls $0.06, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.19) 3 , Q , 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.10, UTG calls $0.10, MP raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.10, UTG calls $0.10

Turn: ($0.79) Q (3 players)
Hero bets $0.38, 1 fold, MP raises to $0.76, Hero thinks about shoving but is scared that he is out-kicked...


Right here I really want to just shove every time... Is that the right move or should I maybe just call? I don't have any reads on the guy. Only been at the table a few orbits and in that time he seems pretty tight.

call and call most rivers, if you're beat it's worth a note

calling the turn would be horrible imo, unless villain is really bluffy. What's your plan on the river? Hope he checks it back? That happens about never. So would you gonna call a bet on the river, or fold? If you'd fold the river, then just fold the turn. If you'd call a bet on the river, just shove now.

There are very few combos of queens that beat us (note: we turned trips, not a set, btw), I think 4 combos of AQ and 4 more combos of KQ, right? Then there's 3 combos each of 33 and 44 that are boats on the turn... That doesn't seem like that many, I don't really know how it'd be significant, I don't know much about combinatorics lol. There are 6 combos of AA and KK that do this, maybe 99-JJ spaz here and do the same, so that's another 9, plus 4 combos of QT, maybe another 4 of Q9...

I guess what I'm trying to say is that getting it in is +EV cause there are more combos in his range that we beat than there are combos that beat us.

/ramble

Definitely looks like you could be out-kicked here. Then again he may already have a full house. But for some reason the dude is playing this kinda like he's not that good a player or something. The way he min-raised twice. It's just weird. If your beat right now you have some outs to help you catch up or to take the lead. I'd say go ahead and push and if your beat your beat. I'd rather push and lose than just call the whole time. BUT....probably shoulda folded pre-flop. A hand like yours will get you into alot more trouble than it's worth. Unless I flop a monster draw like a good straight/flush combo it's probably a loser even if you hit top pair.

sorry, i'm stationing. he's giving us 5-1 and we have 20% equity vs. QJ, KQ, AQ, 33, 44. if he has QT in his range, then we're 33%

baudib1 said:

sorry, i'm stationing. he's giving us 5-1 and we have 20% equity vs. QJ, KQ, AQ, 33, 44. if he has QT in his range, then we're 33%

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What do you do on the river is the question? By calling you're committing more chips and then you STILL have a decision to make on the river. I mean you've picked out hands that tie or have us beat right now but there are also alot of hands that we're beating here as well. As played I say get it in behind or not. We have some outs even if we are behind. Raise his butt and make him make the difficult decision.

PNJs_dad said:

What do you do on the river is the question? By calling you're committing more chips and then you STILL have a decision to make on the river. I mean you've picked out hands that tie or have us beat right now but there are also alot of hands that we're beating here as well. As played I say get it in behind or not. We have some outs even if we are behind. Raise his butt and make him make the difficult decision.

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This post is so sexy. Yeah, I think you're right. He definitely has some draws in his range too.

Well what happened is I shoved, he called and turned over 44. River was a King. Am I going to make money making that play again? I still had like 80ish BB behind me so I probably should have just let it go but with the min raises that would be nearly impossible..