$4 NLHE 6-max: Picked up outs on the turn, shove?

I was really considering shoving the turn when I picked up a gutshot but I don't think he'd fold tp so I just called which felt super weak to me. Then when I saw his cards I was a little upset I didn't shove. I know most people fold this pre but humor me with some post flop ideas.

Villain is 48/36 agro fish with 70% donk bet(included this to show how ridiculous he is) and 65% cbet

Party Poker - $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Holdem (6 players)
Party Poker Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: $4
BB: $5.37
UTG: $4.83
MP: $5.95
CO: $4
BTN Hero: $4.07

Pre-flop: ($0.06) Hero is BTN and dealt
UTG raises to $0.12, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.12, BB folds

Flop: ($0.30) (2 players)
UTG bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.70) (2 players)
UTG bets $0.47, Hero calls $0.47

River: ($1.64) (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.64, UTG calls $1.64

What do you think of overbetting this river?

I was actually planning on Raising his cbet but I pussed out.

Flatting pre is really bad... 3 bet is an option but from an UTG open from an aggressive player its a fold. Sit tight and stack him with a hand.

As played I raise the flop, this means if called and not raised which we will be by everything but TPTK and a set etc... we can then check the turn through when checked to us and see the river for free.

As played on the flop idm the call on the turn although raise is also good i think.

As played on the turn I would give up on the river.

Call call is very weak imo

Fold pre.

Raise flop big. Fire turn as well.

As played your river bluff is rarely gonna work. He's calling with most of his range. Any q, j10, any mid/overpair, most 9s.

If you're bluffin, gotta tell a consistent story. You weren't repping the q on any other street...he's not gonna buy it now. You played it like you missed imo

I don't flat in position often but against agro fish over there I thought I'd take a different line since he was in EP.

Looking at his range, I don't think there are any queens that don't bet that river. J10 certainly would have kept firing unless he was looking to check raise but I'd taken such a passive line I can't immagine him expecting a bet from me unless I had a weak queen, which I think is totally in my range. Overpair was possible, and a big overbet might have even got that to fold against a lot of people imo.

On the river I don't have any showdown value so its gonna get bet when he checks to me. The question is whether or not I could get anything to fold and what size bet I'd need.

Raise flop and fire turn was my plan heading in, I just needed to commit and would have certainly got him off his gd bottom pair. Oh well.

Just fold pre. Wait for a better spot.

Fold pre. Not close at all.

Raise the flop. People are often scared to do this vs a fish but we get an ok amount of fold equity and set the pot up to stack villain. Don't hate the flat just because this guy may be aggressive enough to 3bet us from time to time. I usually check back the turn if I brick.

I dont bluff the river because villain is a fish. Don't show results.

Also don't bluff the river because its like the worst card to bluff on ever in the history of the planet.

This hand is kinda a trainwreck. And by kinda a trainwreck, I mean the worst hand ever. Why is it that when a LAG sits down at the table, it causes everyone else to play like a retard, and do stuff like play T7s?

c9h13no3 said:

Also don't bluff the river because its like the worst card to bluff on ever in the history of the planet.

This hand is kinda a trainwreck. And by kinda a trainwreck, I mean the worst hand ever. Why is it that when a LAG sits down at the table, it causes everyone else to play like a retard, and do stuff like play T7s?

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Ok. trainwreck granted. Worst hand ever? At least I'm in position. lol. When this aggrofish enters a pot with seventy percent donk and cbet, I pretty much assume he's gonna checkraise any real hands(30% he hits) and I'll be able to raise him off the rest. But I blew it which I can handle from time to time. I doubt its the worst hand I've ever played Besides I stacked him a few hands after this on an equally unjustifiable starting hand.

Been meaning to stop posting results. Next time.

I would fold pre. I would definitely not ship the turn. This guy is probably going to call pretty wide since he is a maniac. Run some equity analysis with your draw with one card to come versus a made hand and you will see why a shove sucks.

I would never bluff the river here. Terrible card to bluff on because he will think his pair is good all day now. And really poor choice of bet sizing also. Bad players always think a big bet is a bluff. So you should be doing the opposite, bet big with big hands, bet smaller with bluffs. But you should never be trying to bluff these types of players in the first place. Sorry if this sounded harsh. Was not the intention at all.

BlackRain i loved your book and it has already paid foritself... OP assuming he is as aggro and fishy as you say he is i like the call Pre. On the flop im raising that draw all day just cause he is a fish and my implied odds on hitting are great. Understand normally my play is -ev but i hate maniacs and try to get into big pots and break them off fast. Could be why i break even more often that not.... LOL.... No call sucks pre but i understand where your coming from. I raise post flop and if he calls i check or call turn and fold river if missed. like i said -ev but i love felting maniacs cause they get all mad and buy in and start shoving with any ace.....

CaptainKout said:

Ok. trainwreck granted. Worst hand ever? At least I'm in position. lol. When this aggrofish enters a pot with seventy percent donk and cbet, I pretty much assume he's gonna checkraise any real hands(30% he hits) and I'll be able to raise him off the rest. But I blew it which I can handle from time to time. I doubt its the worst hand I've ever played Besides I stacked him a few hands after this on an equally unjustifiable starting hand.

Been meaning to stop posting results. Next time.

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+100

This is what i mean lol.. If they dont know and dont wanna learn punish them for playing dumb. I mean look at Farha and Elizera and even Doyle they understand your style of play and do it themselves at times.

When you call pre- with T7s, it's clearly not based on the value of your hand, which means you're putting a high value on the possibility of taking the pot away by being aggressive post-flop. If so, why are you calling the flop?

You flopped a flush draw, so you decide to go passive and just call. I wouldn't say this is completely ridiculous, but it's also not completely consistent with your presumed pre-flop reasoning.

I fold pre-. If I'm not willing to play a draw aggressively, that just gives me even more reason to do so.

Deco said:

Fold pre. Not close at all.

Raise the flop. People are often scared to do this vs a fish but we get an ok amount of fold equity and set the pot up to stack villain. Don't hate the flat just because this guy may be aggressive enough to 3bet us from time to time. I usually check back the turn if I brick.

I dont bluff the river because villain is a fish. Don't show results.

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Why would we want to play a bluff aggressively against an aggro fish?

bgomez89 said:

Why would we want to play a bluff aggressively against an aggro fish?

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Because he's easier to stack when we hit. Even a fish will have alarm bells go off if we raise his bet once we hit. If we don't get the oppurtunity to raise the fish we are not getting his stack in. Give us a smaller effective stack size and then I'd favour flatting.

As long as we are not 3bet we will usually end up paying less to see both cards than if we flat villain for both the flop and turn.

Pay less.
Stack fish more often when we hit.
Get a little fold equity.

Fish will pay you off when you hit anyway, especially aggro guys who hate being played back at. I always thought you dont(or rarely) bluff these fish

bgomez89 said:

Fish will pay you off when you hit anyway, especially aggro guys who hate being played back at. I always thought you dont(or rarely) bluff these fish

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Rarely yes, with a nice draw and position on villain is one of those rare times when I'm happy to do so.
At the very least a heart coming down on the turn will cause our fishcake to not bet or fold a good chunk of his range we'd have stacked otherwise. If our fish doesn't bet such an obvious scare card we are not stacking him.

If we were against a passive fish this would be undoubtly the best line. The only thing against this line is the travesty of being 3bet but I still deem it won't happen often enough to make me flat. There is more to raising this flop than fold equity alone.

If we were against a passive fish this would be undoubtly the best line. The only thing against this line is the travesty of being 3bet but I still deem it won't happen often enough to make me flat. There is more to raising this flop than fold equity alone.

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I like this I like raising this flop cause if he is as fishy if you say if we hit a heart on the turn then we are almost always gettin stacks in. bad side perhaps he isnt as fishy as we think and is betting his draw too nad were beat. LESSON the second you raise and he raises back fold you almost always beat. always semi bluff this flop...... of course what we think are his fishy tendencies.

Matter of fact looking over it again im almost sure we could have got a fold on the flop or a check on the turn with a raise on the flop. I could be wrong but then again im known to go with a read and get felted or win huge because of it.....

Semi bluffing the turn makes sense to me but I need more convincing for raising the flop

Wow, I disappeared for a week and this thread got some serious attention. Fantastic.

I'm a little confused as to what the consensus is at this point(other than fold pre of course). So quick review.

Flop: Got a flush draw against a guy who bets every flop he doesn't checkraise. Which means raise his lead?

At the turn, I'm open-ended with a flush draw which gives me 13 outs(9 hearts, 8 straight outs minus 2 hearts already counted), might even win with a 10 or 7 against this guy but those shouldn't be counted. So I'm worse than 1/3 to win at showdown. Stacks are definitely too deep to shove but a raise gives me plenty of fold equity against a guy who's liable to have nothing at least 1/2-2/3 of the time. Which means raise or call to hit my draw?

River: He dries up. This guy never dries up so the q scared him and he wants to get to showdown unless he filled up and wants to checkraise, not because he can expect a bet(or should he, depends on my image) but because "you're supposed to check-raise monsters." Could have an overpair, busted draw, or middle pair imo. I have no showdown equity so could give up or bet? Bet sizing is bad because fish like to call bigger bets than smaller ones. He's probably not folding AA or KK or full house to anything. JJ and lower is what I've got him on and I want to know how much I could bet to get him off that? Small bet won't get him to fold. and If a big bet won't fold a middle pair then I should give up.

When you count outs, you might want to factor in how clean they are. Outs to improve your hand are not the same as outs to win it.

Arjonius said:

When you count outs, you might want to factor in how clean they are. Outs to improve your hand are not the same as outs to win it.

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Very good point.

At the turn:
So how would you discount the flush outs? ten high flush isn't especially strong and a strong flush draw would fit his betting if he's a thinking-aggressive player(not suggesting he is).

Straight outs? I think these are pretty clean. A Jack on the river only really improves K10 over me but that might be worth discounting and a 6 gives me the near nuts (j10 is tje nuts on turn).

Also help me with the shove math. I have 3.20ish behind after matching his turn bet, which is twice the pot so he needs to fold 2/3+ of the time for instant profit(really high), but say my outs are 80-90% clean(so call it 25% at showdown) then ev is $2.00 at showdown($8 pot if called) for -$1.20 if called.

Turn shove math:
(% fold to shove)(1.60)+(1-%fold to shove)(2.00-3.20)=ev, folding is ev=0 so shove is profitable if he's folding a little less than half the time(40% fold puts us about breakeven before rake off top of my head). So what would he need to fold in order to fold half the time? He's not folding any sets, overpairs, tp, j10, and some pair+straight draw. So I'd say this line isn't profitable. But then again sets(except 88), overpairs, and tp probably get check-raised and discounting those probably still doesn't give me the odds to shove here. But raising his bet could flirt with profitability.

River shove math is insta profit math: He needs to fold roughly 2/3+ his hands to be profitable which is really tough. So what does his range look like? I don't think any queens belong in his range because he'd keep firing and same with J10 and any full houses. So If he folds all mid pairs, counterfeited two pairs, and air, we might be good but he's crazy so he's liable to call down all sorts of crap which is probably enough reason to just give it up. Not that he cares(more reason not to shove) but my range could certainly have a weak queen in it that rivered trips, probably not the straight and defo not a boat because I'd have raised one of the other streets with trips/2pair.

Nothing folds that river that checks it first.