Originally Posted by Arjonius
When you count outs, you might want to factor in how clean they are. Outs to improve your hand are not the same as outs to win it.
Very good point.
At the turn:
So how would you discount the flush outs? ten high flush isn't especially strong and a strong flush draw would fit his betting if he's a thinking-aggressive player(not suggesting he is).
Straight outs? I think these are pretty clean. A Jack on the river only really improves K10 over me but that might be worth discounting and a 6 gives me the near nuts (j10 is tje nuts on turn).
Also help me with the shove math. I have 3.20ish behind after matching his turn bet, which is twice the pot so he needs to fold 2/3+ of the time for instant profit(really high), but say my outs are 80-90% clean(so call it 25% at showdown) then ev is $2.00 at showdown($8 pot if called) for -$1.20 if called.
Turn shove math:
(% fold to shove)(1.60)+(1-%fold to shove)(2.00-3.20)=ev, folding is ev=0 so shove is profitable if he's folding a little less than half the time(40% fold puts us about breakeven before rake off top of my head). So what would he need to fold in order to fold half the time? He's not folding any sets, overpairs, tp, j10, and some pair+straight draw. So I'd say this line isn't profitable. But then again sets(except 88), overpairs, and tp probably get check-raised and discounting those probably still doesn't give me the odds to shove here. But raising his bet could flirt with profitability.
River shove math is insta profit math: He needs to fold roughly 2/3+ his hands to be profitable which is really tough. So what does his range look like? I don't think any queens belong in his range because he'd keep firing and same with J10 and any full houses. So If he folds all mid pairs, counterfeited two pairs, and air, we might be good but he's crazy so he's liable to call down all sorts of crap which is probably enough reason to just give it up. Not that he cares(more reason not to shove) but my range could certainly have a weak queen in it that rivered trips, probably not the straight and defo not a boat because I'd have raised one of the other streets with trips/2pair.