re: Poker & $4 NLHE 6-max: Overpair
I'm thinking so much about this hand and the way it was played. For the most part, I'm going to agree with dmorris68. It's usually hard not to. However, I'm not sure I would have raised any more pre. You don't want to play a multiway pot, but you don't want to give away the strength of your hand either. I would probably just stick to my standard raise which is 3x. So... But you do have to play back at this guy. There is no doubt about that.
Okay, here's my thinking. Let me guess, you've been playing tight/agressive, right? So he's probably got you on something like A-Q, K-Q, maybe A-J, and hopes you missed the flop. He's probably expects you to continue either way if he checks, which would tell him nothing. So he's going to lead out and see if you show strength by coming over the top of him or just flat call. You have to consider the hands that beat you. But you also have to consider what you think he's calling your pre-flop raise with? Do you think he's calling you with 7-8? Don't give him too much credit, not without putting him to the test. I'm asking myself questions like am I ready to lay down A-A here? No? So how much do I think this guy will bet on the turn based on what's going to be in the pot if I make this call? I'm going to take that play away from him by making it that much right now and raising to .34, maybe .40. I'm going to find out right now how serious he is.
Having flat called on the flop, I almost think you've got an even better opportunity to put some pressure on him and find out where he is on the turn. He doesn't seem too confident on the turn, based on his bet size. I'm definitely coming over the top of him here and making it at least .50.
Again, flatting tells
us nothing. On top of that, it gives him the confidence to fire out again. But when he does, he overbets the pot. You have to ask yourself why. To me it screams bluff. Maybe he wants it to look that way. Do you think he's that good? Or is it what it looks like? To me it looks like he doesn't want a call.
I guess it is a hard call to make on the river. Any number of draws could have gotten there. He could have just about anything. He could have nothing. There's really no telling, because you did nothing along the way to make him define his hand.