$4 NLHE 6-max: Is this an obvious value bet?

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Goathair

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/16/3.7

Have been struggling with value betting spots, and am trying to get better at recognizing these situations. Is this an obvious value bet, and if so , how much are you betting on the river?

Villian is opening UTG @ about 12%, but we are 4 handed.


Hand Converted by Ace Poker Drills Poker Training Software

NL Holdem $0.04(BB)
SB ($5.06)
BB ($2.2)
CO ($7.5)
HERO ($6.38)

Dealt to Hero Q:diamond: A:heart:

CO Raises To $0.12 , HERO Calls $0.12 , SB Folds , BB Calls $0.08

Flop ($0.32) 8:diamond: Q:heart: K:club:
BB Checks , CO Bets $0.25 , HERO Calls $0.25 , BB Folds

Turn ($0.82) 8:diamond: Q:heart: K:club: 9:club:
CO Checks , HERO Bets $0.58 , CO Calls $0.58

River ($1.98) 8:diamond: Q:heart: K:club: 9:club: K:diamond:
CO Checks , HERO ??????


Ace Poker Drills Poker Equity Calculator
Board: 8d Qh Kc 9c Kd

equity Win Tie Hand Range
72.1739% 68.913% 3.2609% [ QdAh ]
27.8261% 24.5652% 3.2609% [ 55+(100), A4s+(100), AJo+(100), KQs(100), KQo(100),KTs-KJs(40), A2s-A3s(40) ]
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

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I raise AQ pf but as played, check behind on the river. I think you're actually ahead here in most cases but you gain nothing by betting. Nothing is calling that you don't already beat and nothing is folding that you don't. I can see alot of Kx hands that play it out this way and their calling a river bet every time.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I'm fine with this preflop. People rarely call 3-bets OOP as often as they do when you're in the blinds 3-betting a button raiser. So flatting here is good.

I think both streets are easy value bets. There are tons of pair + draw combos on the turn, and there's no way villain ever checks trips or a straight on the river. Easy bet/fold for whatever looks bluffy ($1.25?).
 
Yoshimiii

Yoshimiii

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I'm fine with this preflop. People rarely call 3-bets OOP as often as they do when you're in the blinds 3-betting a button raiser. So flatting here is good.

I think both streets are easy value bets. There are tons of pair + draw combos on the turn, and there's no way villain ever checks trips or a straight on the river. Easy bet/fold for whatever looks bluffy ($1.25?).

Actually lots of the passive fish at low stakes check-call monsters. Anyway with this hand I would 3 bet pre. Check the turn as he could be checking a weak king on the turn and value bet the river to get calls from weaker queens. Not an obvious value bet here, going for two streets of value imo is best here, but once he calls the turn bet that you did I would value bet the river 80% of the time as him checking trips/fullhouse is very unlikely.
 
TylerN

TylerN

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Actually lots of the passive fish at low stakes check-call monsters. Anyway with this hand I would 3 bet pre. Check the turn as he could be checking a weak king on the turn and value bet the river to get calls from weaker queens. Not an obvious value bet here, going for two streets of value imo is best here, but once he calls the turn bet that you did I would value bet the river 80% of the time as him checking trips/fullhouse is very unlikely.

Why would u 3b pre? Checking the turn is terrible for reasons c9 stated. Hands like T9, QJ, QT, fd's we can get value from and river is also a value bet
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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yeah I think i'm ok with something weird like $1.12 on the river
 
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Goathair

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Thanks for the responses guys. Hopefully will have some more spots to post soon.
 
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