$4 NLHE 6-max: KJs on my first hand

Hand#5207021866000672 - $ Rome (6-max) 21866 -- $0.02/$0.04 NL Hold'em -- 2018/07/08 - 14:33:12
Dealer: Seat 1
Seat 1: xxxxx($5.40 in chips)
Seat 2: xxxxx($0.28 in chips)
Seat 3: xxxxxx($4.08 in chips)
Seat 8: xxxxxx($2.27 in chips)
Seat 9: villain ($5.30 in chips)
Seat 10: formertroll ($4 in chips)
xxxxxx: posts small blind $0.02
xxxxxx: posts big blind $0.04
formertroll: posts big blind $0.04
Dealt to formertroll [Js,Ks]
xxxxxx: calls $0.04
villian: calls $0.04
formertroll: raises to $0.22
xxxx: folds
xxxxx: folds
xxxxx: folds
xxxxx: folds
villian: calls $0.18
*** FLOP *** [Qh,7c,9s]
villian: checks
formertroll: bets $0.27
villian: calls $0.27
*** TURN *** [3d]
villian: bets $0.12
formertroll: raises to $1
villian: calls $0.88
*** RIVER *** [Td]
villian: bets $1.54
formertroll: is all in $2.51
villian: calls $0.97

I think at various places I screwed this up I rivered lucky, but all through I thought he was bluffing with something, but it wasn't air. I couldn't get him off the pot. I know i'm not supposed to say what he had but i'd like to analyze it from his side too. so feel free to tell me where I screwed up (he had 7-7) and what the normal line would be for him to play had I been a better player.

That turn card was absolutely horrible for you and you still raised? However, what I don't understand about this hand is how that the villain is sitting on a set, and bets $0.12 into $1.02 and failed to 3-bet you there? Plenty of broadway hands which would make up most of your range are on straight draws.

I feel like your flop action was fine but the turn was a bit too aggressive.

JKs and you're in the cutoff, you make it 6xBB to play and guy decides to continue out of position. That's my first little red flag, which I'll give more weight to depending on the guy's stats/skill level. I'll put him on any pocket pair, AJ-AK, and maybe QJs-KQs. I suppose some 910s type hands might continue also. I won't get into your open raise bet sizing.
Flop comes, we miss but and although Cbet is still the right choice, that flop kind of hits villians range. We bet, he calls. Second red flag.
Turn is a dud, and villian makes a weak bet out of position. Interesting. wtf? 3rd red flag... Honestly, I'm probably wanting to fold here, thinking AQ or KQ - but the pot odds are good for me to continue drawing. We have just about 30% equity in this pot against his predicted range, have high implied odds if we hit our 7 outer to improve to better than top pair (Around 6 to 1), and 4 of those outs make us a straight that will be 2 pair and sets. The villain bet was .12 into 1.02 which means you're getting 1-to-8 on your money if you call. I honestly would probably just call, and I think the math works out.
If this takes place, you call, you make your straight and when he spew bets the river like he did, you can make the same play... but you're not wasting .88 the 5 times you don't improve your hand.
And honestly, now that I look and see that he had a set... you're only really, what, 10-to-1 to improve, but I see donks make similar moves with KQs and AQ here.

I think you should let it go early there. Calling that much on just a gutshot is just bad math. From your point of view, you would need a 10 to get the nuts. 4 outs give you a 9% chance of hitting. If you play like that every time, you would lose the 88 cents you called on the turn 9 out of 10 times.

I think you should isolate smaller, maybe 0.16. However, if the fishes in your player pool is calling 0.22 with trash then you should continue doing that.
Flop is good, BD FD and SD, seems like a perfect hand to CBet with.
The turn I don't really understand, I would probably just call and fold if we don't hit pair or straight. The raise without any notes on the player seems bad. River played it self.

pokijh said:

I think you should let it go early there. Calling that much on just a gutshot is just bad math. From your point of view, you would need a 10 to get the nuts. 4 outs give you a 9% chance of hitting. If you play like that every time, you would lose the 88 cents you called on the turn 9 out of 10 times.

Click to expand...

He didn't call, he raised

I play a lot of these type hands in micro. I find playing very fishy and allowing aggressive players to overbet their edge to be profitable.

Just to explain what I would have been thinking. I would have smooth called with my 7's. When I hit my set I would have checked expecting a raise. Now with the straight draw showing I may have shoved with my set. Likely though in 6 hand I would have just called. On the dud turn I would have lead out with a small raise to imply a bluff. I know this wasn't me in the hand because I would have definitely shoved on the turn versus the raise.

Of course depending on my player notes I may play differently. Watching betting patterns and how players react to checks, calls, raises and reraises is really the key.

you didn't get lucky, you got very very very lucky. Villain's mistake is not to reraise you on the flop but your agressive play with K high and a gut shot is very loose in my opinion. Mainly when you see Villain is calling you easily.