$4 NLHE 6-max: JTs rivered top pair, bet for value?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/15/39

Villain not super aggressive, and seems to be capable of making laydowns. Not a big sample obviously, but I checked his stats on the flop and he'd folded to a river raise 2/2.

Flop was dry, so figured a check-raise might take it down pretty often. Leading out on the turn maybe not a great idea after being called, plus not a great card to barrel at. Given the action, can we place this guy pretty squarely on a 9 and bet for value on the river? Should we c/c in case he wants to bluff at it? As far as things we can't beat, he could have T9, sometimes 87 maybe, or possibly JJ+?

Revolution Gaming Network - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $1.72
Hero (BB): $6.34
UTG: $3.75
MP: $4.44
CO: $5.74
BTN: $4.78

SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has T:heart: J:heart:

fold, MP raises to $0.12, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.26, 2 players) 6:heart: 9:spade: 2:spade:
Hero checks, MP bets $0.16, Hero raises to $0.40, MP calls $0.24

Turn: ($1.06, 2 players) 6:club:
Hero bets $0.53, MP calls $0.53

River: ($2.12, 2 players) T:diamond:
Hero ?

Pretty close, I like b/f 99 cents.

have you ever thought what are ur opponents holdings?cause it looks ur beat.hes tight he was raised and he called.unless he has a busted ak draw and called twice hes rather holding an overpair or better.Unless hes a calling station but u said hes not.

baudib1 said:

Pretty close, I like b/f 99 cents.

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Why, though are we planning on bet folding if we believe they are more than likely to raise us on the river? Would we not if we plan on folding the river be better off checking and seeing what they decided to do on the river?

Villains c-bet% and FCB% is pretty crucial when deciding to checkraise, seems like a decent flop to do it when not that much has hit and we have two backdoor draws.

I check/fold the turn, it's a pretty rubbish barrel card, what folds now that doesn't fold the flop?

As played check/call the river. There is not enough value to bet, {6x, 99+, 78} far outnumber 9x combos which are likely to fold anyway. The only thing we have going for us is busted flush draws bluffing us and even then it's pretty close there are so many combos that beat us and flush draws aren't guranteed to bet it may even be a check/fold.

Looks like a good hand to stove, I think this may well be a check/fold as there's at least 40 combos that beat us which value bet and can't be anymore than 20 combos of flush draw which are only ~50% to bet.

Good post Deco, thanks. Agree my turn barrel was not well thought out. Better off c/f the turn for sure.

Deco said:

As played check/call the river. There is not enough value to bet, {6x, 99+, 78} far outnumber 9x combos which are likely to fold anyway.

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Agree before the flop these combos outnumber random 9 hands. After the flop and turn action though, I think we can narrow it down a bit. I don't have stats in front of me unfortunately, but as I said this guy isn't a total station, so I don't see him calling the flop check raise with any random 6. Possibly a 6 with a flush draw. Also don't think he's often going to get this stubborn with 78, unless it's 7:spade:8:spade:. But yeah 99+ all make sense to me. He might have 3-bet the flop with QQ+.

So stoving that, if I let him have any 9 with an 8 kicker or better (maybe that's a little wide, but at 4NL people do call a lot with top pair)...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.773% 64.77% 00.00% 57 0.00 { JhTh }
Hand 1: 35.227% 35.23% 00.00% 31 0.00 { 99+, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 98o }

I'm good 65% of the time with this range, so I think baudib's right, b/f is probably a good idea. I ended up checking as I had showdown value now, but I'm trying to work on spots where I can get value on the river without a super strong hand.

nidal55 said:

have you ever thought what are ur opponents holdings?

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Well gosh no I never thought of that. Do you think I should?

naruto_miu said:

Why, though are we planning on bet folding if we believe they are more than likely to raise us on the river? Would we not if we plan on folding the river be better off checking and seeing what they decided to do on the river?

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b/f does not mean we bet expecting that in all likelihood we will be raised. That would of course be stupid. b/f mean we think we are good enough of the time to make a value bet profitable, but our hand isn't strong enough to call a raise.

C/c > b/f OTR IMO.

This hand is a mess though. I hate the cold call pre and everything after the flop.

So stoving that, if I let him have any 9 with an 8 kicker or better (maybe that's a little wide, but at 4NL people do call a lot with top pair)...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.773% 64.77% 00.00% 57 0.00 { JhTh }
Hand 1: 35.227% 35.23% 00.00% 31 0.00 { 99+, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 98o }

I'm good 65% of the time with this range, so I think baudib's right, b/f is probably a good idea. I ended up checking as I had showdown value now, but I'm trying to work on spots where I can get value on the river without a super strong hand.[/QUOTE]



I'm curious to why you think b/f is the best option if you are good 65% of the time? Is it because he will only be raising with the top of his range but a call means you should be gaining value? Do you think its b/f > c/c> b/c?

Sorry if this question is stupid or doesn't make sense, I'm just starting to mess around with pokerstove more and want to make sure I am understanding and using the data appropriately. Thanks.

Don't really like c/c, I mean I think it's OK but I'd lean more toward c/f than c/c. Villain mostly has showdown value hands like 9x, 88, 77...hands that have us beat other than 87 are pretty hard to make, like 99, 66. Very rarely he'll have a flush draw that he might bluff, but we're losing value because he's checking back a ton of his range.

ManicLombax said:

{ 99+, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 98o }

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You've left out 78, 6x and 22.

You've also got way too many nines there:
Even if villains complelty unpositional he's not openeing most those offsuit nines from the HJ. In fact within a 15% opening none of those offsuit nines are present!
This also assumes 9s always call here when unless villain is a moron they will be folding most the time. The suited nines villain can have should be heavily negated.

This is the range I've come up with unnegated:

Board: 6h 9s 2s 6c Td

Hand 0: 70.175% { 99+, 66, 22, A9s, A6s, J9s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A9o }
Hand 1: 29.825% { JhTh }

Your equity will be far less than this as the nines need to be heavily negated. I was going to include the negations below in the stoving but I've an exam tomorrow I should really be revising for (driving theory test).

Negations:
A9o - 50% - May not open.
9x - 50% - May not call river (really generous to assume villain snaps off 9x here 50% of the time after a raise, turn barrel and river bet)
sets - 50% - May 3bet flop
Overpairs - 75% - May 3bet flop
6x - 75% - May ship turn

But ye this isn't a value bet and it isn't at all close. When I said this hand would be good for stoving I meant to decide whether we should c/c or c/f.

baudib1 said:

Don't really like c/c, I mean I think it's OK but I'd lean more toward c/f than c/c. Villain mostly has showdown value hands like 9x, 88, 77...hands that have us beat other than 87 are pretty hard to make, like 99, 66. Very rarely he'll have a flush draw that he might bluff, but we're losing value because he's checking back a ton of his range.

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Well yah, I'm check folding the turn, villain has us crushed here unless he's an absolute mong

Even if villain is so unpositional his HJ open range is far greater than his overall PFR it won't help much either. Sure we add in 89o maybe J9o but we also add in T9o/78o.

Deco said:

This is the range I've come up with unnegated:

Board: 6h 9s 2s 6c Td

Hand 0: 70.175% { 99+, 66, 22, A9s, A6s, J9s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A9o }
Hand 1: 29.825% { JhTh }

Your equity will be far less than this as the nines need to be heavily negated. I was going to include the negations below in the stoving but I've an exam tomorrow I should really be revising for (driving theory test).

Negations:
A9o - 50% - May not open.
9x - 50% - May not call river (really generous to assume villain snaps off 9x here 50% of the time after a raise, turn barrel and river bet)
sets - 50% - May 3bet flop
Overpairs - 75% - May 3bet flop
6x - 75% - May ship turn

But ye this isn't a value bet and it isn't at all close. When I said this hand would be good for stoving I meant to decide whether we should c/c or c/f.

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+1,000,000. Absolutely agree with all of this and extra props for taking the time to do all the stoving

If you don't think you get called by 77, 88, 33-55 pretty often I'd say you're crazy. Have you played 4 NL lately?