$4 NLHE 6-max: is the implied odd right to call

Is the implied odd right for me to call the turn?
Also is it right to check raise or maybe I should just flat call.


Merge, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP: $4.67 (116.8 bb)
CO: $4.06 (101.5 bb)
BTN: $4.87 (121.8 bb)
Hero (SB): $3.96 (99 bb)
BB: $2.37 (59.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K Q
MP raises to $0.12, CO folds, BTN calls $0.12, Hero calls $0.10, BB folds

Flop: ($0.40) T 6 J (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.26, BTN folds, Hero raises to $0.87, MP raises to $2.07, Hero calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.54) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $2.48 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results: $4.54 pot ($0.22 rake)
Final Board: T 6 J 2
MP mucked and won $4.32 ($2.13 net)
Hero mucked K Q and lost (-$2.19 net)

There are no implied odds here, you're simply facing an all in bet. You're really asking should you be calling here and you're calling $1.77 to win $6.31. You need to win 28% of the time for the call to be profitable and you probably have just the 8 outs to the str to actually win the hand assuming he doesn't have a flush draw he picked up on the turn. So roughly ~15% to win.

The long/short answer here is no, even though you've already committed over half your stack.

*edit* once he 3b's your raise on the flop I would have released this hand.

What implied odds? MP shoved, you have no implied odds. I assume you mean pot odds. Pot odds are the odds of you winning the pot as is, implied odds are the odds of you getting more money from callers and betters, since MP shoved you have no implied odds.

Anyhoo, let's work out the odds:

Pot odds = 6.31:1.77; roughly 3:1

Assuming he has AJo, (the best possible hand he could have for you) you have a 30% chance of winning on the turn. Therefore

EV = (6.31 * (30%)) - (1.77 * (70%)) = +0.657

Every time you make this call you gain about 66 cents.

However, AJ is not the only hand he could have. He could also have a set, in which case you lose about 6 of your outs. 8 outs gives you a 16% chance to hit the straight on the turn.

EV= (6.31 * (16%)) - (1.77 * (84%)) = -0.4756

The three bet worries me tbh. Unless he's loose he's got a monster, AJ, JT, an overpair (which lowers your equity), or a set. So you're probably 70% behind on the flop, which makes it a fold once he three-bets.

I don't think you are getting the odds to make this call on the river, unless you think that hitting a K or Q would also make you good. If you think the villian would bet this strongly with a pair of jacks on the flop, then you may be able to call since you would have 14 outs instead of just the 8 to hit your straight.

Personally I think I would probably have just flatted his flop bet. Not a huge fan of the check-raise. I think I prefer leading out on the flop compared to a c/r, but I don't know if anyone would agree with that.

Doomasiggy, where do you get 7 outs from?

Sori said:

Doomasiggy, where do you get 7 outs from?

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If he has AJ, we have 13 outs because we can hit a K or a Q. If he has a set or two pair, we lose those outs and have to hit a straight to win.

Unless I've counted that wrong.

3 K, 3 Q, 3 A, 4 9's.

Ah, yes, I have counted that wrong. If he has a set or two pair we have 8 outs to make the straight because there are 4 aces and 4 9's. Sorry, it's like, half twelve in the morning over here.

Right, but we have 8 outs to hit our straight (four 9's, four aces)

Sori said:

Right, but we have 8 outs to hit our straight (four 9's, four aces)

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Yeah I just realised, sorry, early in the morning and I'm tired.

haha not a problem I was just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing something here

Really not a fan of how this hand played out. Every action has an alternative that you should at least be considering. Such as:

-Squeeze preflop. Not the most typical line, but if MP is able to raise wide UTG, I like squeezing here.

-Just call the flop. When we raise, we typically make our pair outs (K's & Q's) a lot less likely to be clean. Plus, we don't have a lot of fold equity on a JTx flop, where just about everyone has a pair or a draw.

-Once you raise the flop, you need to stack this hand. Because when you flat the flop 3-bet, you allow yourself to make the mistake you made on the turn...

-On the turn you have to call $1.77 into a pot of $6.31. You're getting pot odds of 3.5:1. You have 14 outs against AJ, 11 against QQ, 8 against KK. This is in the 3.5:1 ballpark. Folding could have easily been a mistake here.

c9h13no3 said:

Really not a fan of how this hand played out. Every action has an alternative that you should at least be considering. Such as:

-Squeeze preflop. Not the most typical line, but if MP is able to raise wide UTG, I like squeezing here.

-Just call the flop. When we raise, we typically make our pair outs (K's & Q's) a lot less likely to be clean. Plus, we don't have a lot of fold equity on a JTx flop, where just about everyone has a pair or a draw.

-Once you raise the flop, you need to stack this hand. Because when you flat the flop 3-bet, you allow yourself to make the mistake you made on the turn...

-On the turn you have to call $1.77 into a pot of $6.31. You're getting pot odds of 3.5:1. You have 14 outs against AJ, 11 against QQ, 8 against KK. This is in the 3.5:1 ballpark. Folding could have easily been a mistake here.

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this ainec

Sorry for the misunderstanding. I mean the implied odd on the flop. Not the turn

c9h13no3 said:

Really not a fan of how this hand played out. Every action has an alternative that you should at least be considering. Such as:

-Squeeze preflop. Not the most typical line, but if MP is able to raise wide UTG, I like squeezing here.

-Just call the flop. When we raise, we typically make our pair outs (K's & Q's) a lot less likely to be clean. Plus, we don't have a lot of fold equity on a JTx flop, where just about everyone has a pair or a draw.

-Once you raise the flop, you need to stack this hand. Because when you flat the flop 3-bet, you allow yourself to make the mistake you made on the turn...

-On the turn you have to call $1.77 into a pot of $6.31. You're getting pot odds of 3.5:1. You have 14 outs against AJ, 11 against QQ, 8 against KK. This is in the 3.5:1 ballpark. Folding could have easily been a mistake here.

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Brilliant thoughts. This make my every thoughts wrong:

"Squeeze" honestly have not thought about that.

call the flop. Yes I should do that. I am just addicting to semibluff. And never notice the board text.

Stack oh!!! why I do not think about that. I just thought if the implied odd is ok here. Maybe I just too scare that he has at least two pairs to make this strong move continuely.

Call the turn. I did not do that. Again I am afraid he has strong hands at least two pairs. Why should I think about other possible hands.

Thank you very much I learned a lot here

puke said:

Call the turn. I did not do that. Again I am afraid he has strong hands at least two pairs. Why should I think about other possible hands.

Thank you very much I learned a lot here

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If you think he has two pair you should fold the turn. You're 70% behind against two pair or a set.

-On the turn you have to call $1.77 into a pot of $6.31. You're getting pot odds of 3.5:1. You have 14 outs against AJ, 11 against QQ, 8 against KK. This is in the 3.5:1 ballpark. Folding could have easily been a mistake here.

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Against those hands, stove puts us at 25% equity on the turn. We need over 4:1 equity for shoving to be equitable. Not to mention our equity decreases to 22% if you include JT, TT or JJ. Prefer folding here.

I fold to the flop raise.

I doubt he is rebluffing us here so lets give him 22 which is the worst made hand possible. All in on the flop we are 55%. I doubt he has 22 here but most likely has hand that he wants to stack off with. Against any hands that are willing to stack off here we are an underdog. We will end up with about 40% equity and i think thats generous. Only hand we beat is 98 but i dont give him credit for that opening in MP and going all with with unders and low end straight draw.

I think calling the flop raise was the worst option. Id rather raise and get it in on the flop than call and get it in or try to hit.

On the turn its an easy fold.

I think your biggest mistakes were committing yourself when you were not willing to commit and calling a large raise when you are going to be folding the turn most of the time.

dooydoo said:

I fold to the flop raise.

I doubt he is rebluffing us here so lets give him 22 which is the worst made hand possible. All in on the flop we are 55%. I doubt he has 22 here but most likely has hand that he wants to stack off with. Against any hands that are willing to stack off here we are an underdog. We will end up with about 40% equity and i think thats generous. Only hand we beat is 98 but i dont give him credit for that opening in MP and going all with with unders and low end straight draw.

I think calling the flop raise was the worst option. Id rather raise and get it in on the flop than call and get it in or try to hit.

On the turn its an easy fold.

I think your biggest mistakes were committing yourself when you were not willing to commit and calling a large raise when you are going to be folding the turn most of the time.

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I disagree with pretty much everything here.

If we're raising the flop, it sure as hell isn't to fold.

dooydoo said:

On the turn its an easy fold.

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No.

bgomez89 said:

No.

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you guys cant just say 'no' and ' i disagree'. You need to explain why you feel that way. How else is anyone going to learn?

Heres why i think its a fold after the raise on the flop.

1. its multiway and the villain cb into 2 ppl. He also opened in mp so i give him credit for a hand here. I doubt he will be bluffing on that flop vs 2 other players.

2. when we raise, we show strength. We are repping a strong hand here or a big draw of some sort. We are never bluffing because the villain opened in mp so he has a tight range and he cb into 2 ppl on a bad board to bluff.

3. when the villain reraises us he is committed to the hand. I dont think theres any way he will fold if we shove here. If he is committed, he has a strong hand and its going to be equal or better than ours.

4. since we are flipping or most likely way behind, and have no fold i think its better to fold.

Heres why i think calling is the worst option on the flop.

We commit ourselves by putting in so many bbs but we arent trying to commit ourselves. I think raising is better than calling because if we call we commit and if we miss the turn we are still commited but our equity gets cut in half. If we shove we get our money in better than we would on the turn and we were committed anyways so why not just shove the rest in now.

Heres why i think the turns a fold.

The river is a blank and he shoves it in. We already determined that we were behind on the flop and now our equity is cut in half. If we call we are behind 95% of the time and chopping the other 5%.

Im happy folding even though you committed a lot of chips because we are behind and wont hit often enough.

3bet or fold pre. Check raising the flop is fine here but you have to either fold or ship when he 3bets you. Calling and then folding the turn is disastrous for your winrate. I would never call the flop 3bet here but if I did I would be auto jamming the turn.

I can't see how this can be a fold without a better read that he's a total nit. This is a pretty pessimistic range and we have 23%


Board: Th Jc 6d 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.908% 76.15% 00.76% 13167 132.00 { TT+, AJs, KdQd, KJs, AJo }
Hand 1: 23.092% 22.33% 00.76% 3861 132.00 { KQo }


This gives him just 1 combo of a semibluff, no spazzes with 98/Q9 that we're ahead of or random stuff like 99 that we have 15 outs against.

Why on earth would we ship the flop?
Do you really think we have the fold equity to do so?

Terrible call pre, terrible raise post flop because we have to call now can't fold to a raise here. Never feeling good here unless I'm running good and expect to spike my cards. Not sure what you was thinking here but you are crushed nearly every time. Should of just folded pre unless you have some read then only 3betting is the only real option out of postion here. Even then, it's marginal, you are often crushed.

dwbrown7680 said:

There are no implied odds here, you're simply facing an all in bet. You're really asking should you be calling here and you're calling $1.77 to win $6.31. You need to win 28% of the time for the call to be profitable and you probably have just the 8 outs to the str to actually win the hand assuming he doesn't have a flush draw he picked up on the turn. So roughly ~15% to win.

The long/short answer here is no, even though you've already committed over half your stack.

*edit* once he 3b's your raise on the flop I would have released this hand.

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Ditto

The flop we're calling $1.20 to see the turn. Assuming villain is always shoving the turn we've 5 to 1 to hit. We need to make $6 on average to make the call.

There is $3.50 in the pot, villain has $2.50 left. We need to stack villain every single time we hit for this call to be breakeven. We're going to get it in pretty close to that as he's rarely bluffing but his twopairs/sets will hit fullhouses on the river > 0% of the time.

Other than the flop call which isn't terrible by any means I think OP played the hand fine. Well depending on the MPs stats I may fold pre but again it's far from terrible.

I like this hand! Its generating some serious discussion. Thanks for posting it puke.

dooydoo said:

you guys cant just say 'no' and ' i disagree'. You need to explain why you feel that way. How else is anyone going to learn?

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I did explain myself. Read post #10. Plus, Baudib explains it fairly well with his equity sim.

Deco said:

Why on earth would we ship the flop?
Do you really think we have the fold equity to do so?

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I like your last series of posts, we certainly don't have any FE when we get 3-bet on the flop. But there's $2.14 in there on the flop and we've got $2.97 behind. Surely we have at least the 37% equity we need to blindly put our chips in the pot (no matter how).

So yeah, we shouldn't 4-bet the flop, but we're too committed to fold. I kinda like the call/call line here after we're 3-bet on the flop.

The two interesting decisions in this hand are preflop (raise/call/fold) and whether to check/call or check/raise (or donk?) the flop. And on the flop decision, I think check/raising is pretty gross since it commits us to stacking in a marginal spot like this. Plus villain raised from UTG and bet into 2 players, so I'm not sure how much fold equity we have against his c-bet.

Lastly, there's a lot of bad posts in here, giving bad advice. Think before you spew verbally guys.