Originally Posted by pcgnome
Your making some good points, and I think this is a good guide line. but why would you check/call after there is a second queen on the board? If he had AQ, I would be way behind. I'm scared of that queen, and he missed a good chance to take the pot after the turn.
The best possible hand is quads, and next there are a few boats out there.
I wont argue that betting the turn here is wrong. I think a Turn bet is fine. For me however I would prefer to check in this particular situation. The reasons why are:
1) if he does not have a made hand we can only hope to get a call from him on the river. If he has weak 2 pair or AK type hands he may fold to a turn bet which is not what we want. He may call a 1/2 pot bet on river however with any 2 pair.
2) He may catch a strong flush on the river and then with our nut flush we get all of his stack!
3) he may bet out on turn since we showed weakness.
4) by Checking turn and if he checks behind we can disguise our hand and make it look like a bluff on the river.
5) he could have a Q or a flush right now but if so we still have lots of outs. We are only afraid if he has a full house but is not highly likely. If he does ve a Q, flush, or FH already we want to minimize the amount of money we put in the pot.
Essentially we get into a situation on the turn where he may fold the hands we beat and calls or raises the hands we are behind. What is awesome is if he does bet we still have some outs and there is almost no way we are drawing dead (I know QQ but very unlikely he has that).
By checking the turn I think we maximize the amount of money he will be willing to put in the pot if we have him beat while lowering the amount we loose if we are behind or dont catch what we need.
The only downside to checking the turn is if he catches a draw that beats us. However at most has 6 outs (67 off suite for OESD, subtract 2 of 8 outs as the 4 or 9 of clubs would give us the flush) which equates to about 12% equity. Likely he has more like 2-3 outs with 2 pair or ISSD. With these hands I give him the sense that I am weaker than I am so to increase the likelyhood he will put $ in the pot on the river.
Maybe at this level ISSD will call a turn bet with 2 Q and 3 to the flush on the board but for your own play I HIGHLY SUGGEST YOU FOLD when you have his hand on the turn and river. His Rare hand should have become extinct on the flop.