$4 NLHE 6-max: Classic Delimma, Semi-Bluff or Draw?

c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Villain is more competent than your average 2NL player. I've been 3-betting him small a lot, and raising his flop c-bets. So game flow wise, my image probably isn't the best.

Also, please take note of the stack sizes.

poker stars $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Hero (UTG): $13.64
CO: $2.08
BTN: $6.26
SB: $4.96
BB: $11.54

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with 5 8
Hero raises to $0.08, 3 folds, BB calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.17) 7 3 2 (2 players)
BB bets $0.14, Hero raises to $0.67, BB calls $0.53

Turn: ($1.51) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero can't decide
 
ALL IN CLUBS

ALL IN CLUBS

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cant decide?? SHeeesh how many outs do you have at least 17 good outs weeeeeeeeeeeeeee ship it....at least value bet pot i would think:D :D :ridinghor ..
 
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No Brainer

No Brainer

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Villain is more competent than your average 2NL player.


C9 giving a 2NL player credit? Not sure if I like this.

I seem to get a little confused in similar spots to this, I'm not usually 500bbs deep but.


Villains range after calling flop raise could consist of any spades, any decent overs, any connectors within that flop.
66-44,ATs+,As9s,As8s,Ac7c,Ad7d,Ah7h,As6s,As5s,As4s,As2s,KTs+,Ks9s,Ks8s,Kc7c,Kd7d,Kh7h,Ks6s,Ks5s,Ks4s,Ks2s,QTs+,JTs,Ts9s,9s8s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s,ATo+,A7o,KTo+,K7o,QTo+,JTo

River

Rather than looking straight into the turn I would decide what I would be happy with when the river hits.

4 (non spade) - We have the nuts. There are not many of villains hands that this will improve to get stacks in though. 34 or 44 we might get a decent amount from him - Build the pot

9 (non spade) - We have second nuts but I don't think he would have gotten this far with T8, maybe T8 of spades depending on how loose he is and your aggressive image. Wont do much for villains hand but if he has 2 pair or a set he is less likely to put us on the straight. - Build the pot

8 (non spade) - We may well be good here over any A7, K7 hand but no good against any connectors that could have gotten here (67, 78) - We want a small pot here.

Any brick - Our hand will never hold up. If it is a scary card (another 7 or maybe even Q,J or T) and we decide we have some fold equity we would rather have a smaller pot to bluff into rather than a pot that is suddenly 150bbs. - Small pot

Any spade - How often do we see him with a higher spade draw here? I think it will make up about 30 or 40% of his range. How much fold equity do we have on this turn against his spade draws? Will a 2/3 - 3/4 pot size bet get him off them? If so we should be betting to fold them out. If not we should be checking and calling a river bet if one hits. - 50/50


So there are 8 straight cards in the deck that we want to build the pot for, 29 bricks that we want a small pot for and 9 spades that depends on the player and our image etc. I think its only the four 9s in the deck that we could get stacks in with so the implied odds are not great.

Turn
You have said that you have raised his flop bets a lot, I guess he has been folding to your raises a lot.

I don't really think he will fold much on this turn that he called your flop raise with. Any A7, K7, 78, 88-99 even some middle pairs like A3, 34. Obviously any 45, 67 won't be going anywhere.

Whats our plan if he check raises? The pot will be around 300bbs but I think we will still have the odds to draw as he will be doing this most of the time with a made straight or a set and we could discard all of those Ax, Kx spades hands that we had him on on the river and our implied odds will be huge.

End
In the end I think checking behind here is the best option as I don't see him folding to a turn bet all that often, there are only 4 cards in the deck that give us good implied odds on the river and even if we hit our flush we really don't want to be playing around a 300bb pot with an 8 high flush.

This is all from a full ring Nit BTW...
 
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baudib1

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wtf, bet pot and shove the river obv.

nh
 
WVHillbilly

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wtf, bet pot and shove the river obv.

nh

If we bet pot and he shoves over it are you folding or calling? If you're calling I don't think you find yourself in a lot of +EV spots because he's going to have overpairs, sets and bigger FDs most of the time.

Our hand against a range of 77+, 33-22, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s (really any 4 over spade draws will do here) has 27% equity. How many outs do you REALLY think you have if he wants to play for stacks?

I think we have too much equity to bet/fold and not enough to bet/call so I check behind.
 
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baudib1

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who flats the NFD or sets OOP vs. UTG?
 
WVHillbilly

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who flats the NFD or sets OOP vs. UTG?

1st I'd like to point out I made a mistake in Stove originally and our equity against the range I gave him earlier is actually 31% not 27%. That out of the way.

Like I said it doesn't have to be the NFD. Any 2 over spades works just as well and if we start adding lots of them to him range (I only included 4 originally) our equity doesn't get any better. Remove ALL sets and FDs from his range and our equity against just overpairs (88+) is 33%.

So if we pot it and he shoves what exactly do you expect him to show us?

If we pot it and he calls what do you expect him to fold to a river shove assuming we miss?

If we pot it and he calls do you expect him to call with worse when we hit our FD?

If our image was better maybe we get folds on the river but C9's image is never clean and it sounds like he's been exploiting this guy in particular.
 
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Personally I like the check behind to see where we are on the river. I don't see it being a good idea to build a pot on a draw...albeit a very strong one...against someone who is also very deep. I may be way off base and missing a lot of value in that, but I am nitty

Plus if we miss and he checks again, you can always take a stab at bluffing the pot.
 
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baudib1

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1st I'd like to point out I made a mistake in Stove originally and our equity against the range I gave him earlier is actually 31% not 27%. That out of the way.

Like I said it doesn't have to be the NFD. Any 2 over spades works just as well and if we start adding lots of them to him range (I only included 4 originally) our equity doesn't get any better. Remove ALL sets and FDs from his range and our equity against just overpairs (88+) is 33%.

So if we pot it and he shoves what exactly do you expect him to show us?

If we pot it and he calls what do you expect him to fold to a river shove assuming we miss?

If we pot it and he calls do you expect him to call with worse when we hit our FD?

If our image was better maybe we get folds on the river but C9's image is never clean and it sounds like he's been exploiting this guy in particular.

we can jam any face card, too, of which there is a lot, so 33% equity is fine.
Let's say we have 14.5 outs and we shove any J-Q-K-A. He only has to fold half the time for us to win.

Checking back turns our hand pretty much face up as a flush draw so forget our implied odds if we actually hit.
 
bgomez89

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we can jam any face card, too, of which there is a lot, so 33% equity is fine.
Let's say we have 14.5 outs and we shove any J-Q-K-A. He only has to fold half the time for us to win.

Checking back turns our hand pretty much face up as a flush draw so forget our implied odds if we actually hit.
.

Bet this turn
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Still hate betting the turn here. Yes the turn helps our actual hand BUT it does not really help our UTG range and villain should know that. We're too deep with too little equity to be comfortable stacking.
 
cjatud2012

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I assume As5s would be a pretty easy bet here? This is a little more tricky as the value of our hand is way less. Other than that I want to lean towards betting so that if we do hit we can potentially get our stack in (which may or may not be what we want, because like I said our equity isn't as great as it is with a hand like As5s).
 
cjatud2012

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bump for more good discussion hopefully
 
KardKlub

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Well IMO I think we now have the lead and we've just turned added equity so a turn bet is good. I wouldn't call a raise if that happened as I'm not shipping 500bb with 7 high. I don't want to justify And make right his raise with aq s etc
 
No Brainer

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Well IMO I think we now have the lead and we've just turned added equity so a turn bet is good. I wouldn't call a raise if that happened as I'm not shipping 500bb with 7 high. I don't want to justify And make right his raise with aq s etc


Are you betting here as a semi bluff? What hands is he going to fold on this turn that he called with on the flop?

Also will you bet out again on the river when it bricks? If a spade hits and we bet out and get raised are we calling that? I think a river raise would be around 150-200bbs if we had bet out on the turn where as it should only be around 75 - 100bbs if we had checked.
 
KardKlub

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Are you betting here as a semi bluff? What hands is he going to fold on this turn that he called with on the flop?

Also will you bet out again on the river when it bricks? If a spade hits and we bet out and get raised are we calling that? I think a river raise would be around 150-200bbs if we had bet out on the turn where as it should only be around 75 - 100bbs if we had checked.

1. We are betting as a semi bluff and to build a pot if we hit a good river card

2. What is he folding? Hopefully nothing we can beat with a good river card.

3. If I get to a brick river I'll check behind, but I expect him to bet any nut hand as no one is good enough to check turn and check river.

4. I'm building a pot with a good semi bluff, if I hit and get cr then I'm folding my flush and jamming my straight. I'm more than happy to have a big pot as I can lay my hand down when I think I'm beat
 
vanquish

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i'm favoring a bet like $0.60 or something here. we give ourself odds and if he c/r's, we can still call and stack sets/2 pairs/w.e else on the river. beyond this, he'll most likely call with draws that have more SD equity vs. us, and will fold them OTR (things like KQss)


edit: maybe a little bigger, like halfpot, but underbetting is fine too imo, because we leave ourselves tons of room to maneuver and can experiment with underbetting in spots like this with various ranges
 
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baudib1

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I really think everyone is overestimating the times he's going to check-raise the turn after flatting the flop.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Turn: ($1.51) 6:diamond: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.15, BB raises to $10.79 all in, Hero folds

Final Pot: $3.81
BB wins $3.63
(Rake: $0.18)

Results Oriented Thinking: I'm not super pumped about building a pot with an 8-high flush, and I'm not sure how much fold equity I have after he calls a raise out of position. Betting the turn is likely +EV, but only slightly. We know that checking back and hitting our draw 30% of the time is very +EV.
 
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