€4 NLHE 6-max: AA river shove decision

Hey all, HH here:

iPoker - €0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BB): 229.25 BB
UTG: 230.25 BB (VPIP: 36.99, PFR: 28.77, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, hands: 77)
CO: 55.5 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
BTN: 169.5 BB (VPIP: 34.39, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 2.44, Hands: 159)
SB: 231 BB (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 12.55, 3Bet Preflop: 2.61, Hands: 516)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ah Ac
UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 11 BB, UTG calls 8 BB

Flop : (22.5 BB, 2 players) 5s Qh 7d
Hero bets 8 BB, UTG calls 8 BB

Turn : (38.5 BB, 2 players) 7h
Hero bets 17 BB, UTG calls 17 BB

River : (72.5 BB, 2 players) 2c
Hero bets 50.75 BB, UTG raises to 194.25 BB, Hero calls 142.5 BB

Question is, can we call profitably? I think I can see him doing this with KK but Im not sure. QQ is in his range, but its not very likely, as its only 3 combos. Cant see much 7x in his range apart from 77 which is one combo precisely. 55 is possible this deep. Can we call?

55, 77, QQ can all call preflop (due to deep stacks) so he can have them all but as you said that is only 10 combos. He could even have 76s or 87s if hes very loose. But then again how many bluff combos can he have that he arrived at the turn with as there are no good draws out there other then 86 (which is highly unlikely). As for the flush draw you hold the A of hearts so that is also unlikely hand for him.

As I don't see any bluff combos I think you have to fold against his river shove. KK might have 4 betted preflop or raised on the flop. As KK has showdown value against AQ why would he turn it into a bluff?

Only afraid of really 7 combos on the river. 55 (3), QQ (3), 77 (1) Just want to make note of villains 36.9/28.7... He is playing waaayyy more hands than he should. He could totally have 55, 77 here.

Pretty dry flop, villain can definatley call/call/raise with a set.

I think this really comes down to: is he flat-calling a 3-bet with KK? If so, i think we can sigh-call, but if you think he is going to 4-bet that i think we need to fold. With KK in we beat: 6 combos of AQ, 6 combos of KK. We lose to only 7, so we can profitabley call. Without KK, it is 6 combs vs 7 so we can fold.

**note as to what Huj said, if we think he ever opens 87 or 76, we have a clear fold. But honestly i really don't think he should be A: opening those hands or B: calling a 3-bet with them.

I think you should have checked the turn to see what is his move, or check the flop, not take all the initiative. If he raised on the flop, you reraised him, and if he shoves then, it's ok to call.

This is very hard to judge, hope the call was the right move.

TenJack said:

With KK in we beat: 6 combos of AQ, 6 combos of KK. We lose to only 7, so we can profitabley call. Without KK, it is 6 combs vs 7 so we can fold.

Click to expand...

We need 31% to call.

Betting that small against lag is like waving red tunic, something that should be accounted.

I think we are going to see him flip over a set an inordinate number of times, but thats just my read. If you go with the cold hard math i think that is perfectly fine as well (probably better lol). It just smells like a set to me.

Also, i wish we could see hero's stats, as well as some form of aggro for villain. If stats suggested/we had a solid read that villain is going to be donking a lot of flops with TPTK-type hands then it is a more clear fold.

Let do some range analyses. Suppose he calls the 3 bet with the following range:
JJ-66,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs [50]AA-KK[/50],[75]QQ[/75]
(4 betting AA dn KK 50% of the time and QQ 25% of the time and not having 55 in his range)
On the turn lets say he continues with reasonable pairs below top pair (TT+) with overcards (AKo) with backdoor flush draws that connect perfectly with the Q (AKs, KJs and JTs) and top pair and better, gives him the following range after the flop.
JJ-TT,77,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-AQs,KQs,QJs-QTs,KhJh,KdJd,KsJs,JhTh,JdTd,JsTs,[50]AA-KK[/50],[75]QQ[/75]
Now on the turn he dumps all his backdoors that did not become a flushdraw and all his pairs below top pair and his two overcards. So range after turn becomes.
77,AQo,KQo,AQs,KQs,QJs-QTs,KhJh,JhTh,[50]AA-KK[/50],[75]QQ[/75]
So on the river he only has 2 real bluff combos namely KhJh and JhTh. He has 3.25 value combos QQ and 77. And he has lots od showdown value hands AA, KK, Qx.

Hero needs 1:3 odds on his call on the river, a real trappy opponent could make this move with his worst Qx hoping to get a fold form other Qx that beat him as that removes most of the possible QQ hero hands. Think Qx is better bluff hand then KK as KK is a better value hand and Qx removes some of the easy calls of the hero and Qx is probably beat on the river.

But remember you must make the assumption that the villain is capable of making huge bluffs on the river with hands that have some showdown value. On the level played there is only a very small percentage of the players making such bluffs.

All in all I still think it is a clear fold.

Small comment to Hujiko, is that somewhat big part of being lag at micros is overvaluing hand strength, they just don't realize always that they are bluffing. I might however be nit-biassed Also VPIP: 36.99 can actually call any two when facing 3bet as long as it's suited or almost connected, we should have more data.

Edit: I was not arguing about the conclusion. Also because for me this would have been fold, but I would love to call and hope that it would be possible to do.

i think u played it right to the turn, his range is pretty wild he ccout have 22+ AJs+ and even suited connectors, i think u r beat there for sure there is no need to call in the micros a river push or huge bet is the nuts or near that i guess there he have at least a 7 in his hand if not a booth.

On such small game lag players tend to overplay even top pair like kq, but a way hand is played i would put him on 55,77,QQ and fold...