€4 NLHE 6-max: AA 3bet on river

Hi everyone

villain 18/13 58 hands so shaping up pretty nitty. And i think his range is pretty capped at 22-TT mid and low pairs maybe a few suited connectors.The turn and river i think are the decisions,is it an explopitable turn fold ? or call turn fold/call river ? the flops so dry but i guess people still raise with sets.Thank you.

BTN: €4.00 (100 bb)
SB: €5.28 (132 bb)
Hero (BB): €6.38 (159.5 bb)

SB posts €0.02, Hero posts BB €0.04

Pre Flop: (pot: €0.06) Hero has A:spade: A:heart:
BTN raises to €0.08, SB calls €0.06, Hero raises to €0.40, fold, SB calls €0.32

Flop: (€0.88, 2 players) 6:heart: 2:spade: 8:club:
SB checks, Hero bets €0.26, SB raises to €0.52, Hero calls €0.26

Turn: (€1.92, 2 players) T:spade:
SB bets €1.00, Hero calls €1.00

River: (€3.92, 2 players) T:heart:
SB bets €3.36, Hero?

Yeah what a gross spot.
Do you have check raise stats or aggression factor?
If AF is over 2 I'm probably calling. If check raise stats is over 7% I'm calling here as well.

I dont ever use the Af stat and 58 hands isnt enough for the flop raise stat or Af stat to be useful in the hand really. But for the check raise stat i think 10-12 is about average so 7 might actually be edging towards the tighter side.

As you have only the preflop stats to go on I would be tempted to call here if his preflop stat do not indicate that hes either a rock (lets say <15% VIP) or a passive player (lets say VIP - PFR > 10).

Reason here to call is that the board is so dry (except for the TT and it is not likely he has a T) that this is a very good bluff board and you have the best bluff catcher in your hand. You could even be up against an overvalued KK.

why this size bet on the flop its just weird from u? u did get a raise so why not a re pop on the flop and go all in if necessary i dont see any reason to fold just go for it.
i would go all in on the river i dont see any reason for hesitation there

I think running Ts on the turn and river are actually good for your hand. Without more detailed stats for villain's flop play, I would tend towards a call on the river.

micromoi said:

why this size bet on the flop its just weird from u? u did get a raise so why not a re pop on the flop and go all in if necessary i dont see any reason to fold just go for it.
i would go all in on the river i dont see any reason for hesitation there

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I think 1/3p is fine in a 3bet especially on such a dry flop.It allows villain to continue wider while getting commited to the pot and still allows me to set up river shoves.And there isnt any reason to put in another raise on such a dry flop i dont think.It just norrow villains range to better hands.It allows them to fold worse 1 pair hands and removes any bluffs/semi bluffs because there aren't any draws for them to continue with.

vs unknown I think need to call down once but I really hate it, even random 97s get there.

Sucks for that sizing, but think you still need to call river (its close) You're correct in that your opponents range is' going to be small/mid pair heavy. And honestly, the only reason I'm calling here is because sometimes these nits call pre with JJ+ and then call 3-bets under repping their hands. Because other than those hands, there's no reason for the sizing, and it's unlikely he has bluffs in his range since you have two aces. Unlikely he has KQ/Kx hands.

So sets, and an under repped hand like QQ/KK could be in there enough to justify a call. There won't be much air in his range based on how he played it.

Yeah the runout here is pretty sucky as opp has quite a few Ts as played...but calling is good...you are right more than not