$4 NLHE 6-max: 99 on KKJxx board vs. triple barrel

ManicLombax said:

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/18/65

Villain seems decent taggy type. Hadn't seen anything extraordinary from him.

I've really been trying not to make hero calls on the river at 4NL. At this level it seems like they almost always have it. Fold river to 3rd barrel? I don't think he's leading out if he hit a J on the river, and probably not double barreling with JJ. Which probably leaves AA and Kx as his value range, or possibly some weird backdoor flush. Possibly 55 but 3-bet pre seems unlikely.

Fold river? Also, is the hand ok up to the river?

Revolution Gaming Network - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $3.95
Hero (UTG): $5.82
MP: $4.10
CO: $2.92
BTN: $4.00
SB: $5.28

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has 9<font color='red'>♦</font> 9<font color='black'>♣</font>

Hero raises to $0.12, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.28

Flop: ($0.82, 2 players) K<font color='red'>♥</font> 2<font color='red'>♦</font> 5<font color='black'>♣</font>
BB bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.02, 2 players) K<font color='black'>♣</font>
BB bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00

River: ($4.02, 2 players) J<font color='black'>♣</font>
BB raises to $1.95 and is all-in ...

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JCgrind said:

Don't be so sure, I'd play JJ-AA like this for sure and a huge range of air. Raise the flop and save yourself the drama

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ManicLombax said:

That's really interesting, and brings up a question I've been thinking about a lot over the last day or two. Just thinking, if one thing's been pounded into my head learning to play poker, it's you bet for one of two reasons:
- to get a better hand to fold
- to get a worse hand to call

Are we raising the flop as a bluff, or for value? bluff Seems like nothing worse will call, so probably not value. But he's probably not folding a K unless he happens to have KT or something and was 3-betting really light and can find a fold when raised.He's 3bing 8%, not that many hands that can call in that range. Board is rainbow and no realistic straight draw so it's the perfect board to apply pressure when IP. hands villain can play back at you with=AA,KK,AK,KQ and KJ if you're super unlucky. A rainbow K high board is optimal for making plays on villains IMO as it kills lots of their value 3b range Other better hands we're probably getting TT-QQ to fold As well as a bunch of random Ax hands and possibly sc's and lower Pps if he 3bs them too- although that's unlikely since he 3b a UTG raise so his range is mostly strong. Which poses the next question, why do you wanna call or play back at a strong range after you miss your set OTF? (read; I fold flop)

Raising the flop seems to fall under old-school "bet to protect your hand" or "raise for information" lines. Not saying you're wrong, just wondering if you have any thoughts on that.Fold > raise > call if he 3bs a tighter range v UTG open (which he should). If not, raise > fold > call, since he probably 3bs no different vs a UTG open coa he's a micronoob. I just didn't bother with this in my OP since you seemed to be pretty set on at least seeing a turn

Saw a similar hand linked up on youtube in the Verneer PDF. Wasn't a 3-bet pot, but Verneer raised 77 in position on a K9x board vs a c-bet. The guy he was sweating with thought it was a bit unusual too, but hey, he's way better than I am.

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ManicLombax said:

Thanks Rodney.

He was 3-betting about 8%, so somewhat light. Honestly I didn't even consider folding 99 in position here, but yeah I absolutely should have thought about it. If he were 3-betting say 2-3% I'm almost always crushed.

You're right, if he's any good, he knows he's not repping much by barreling the turn.

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ManicLombax said:

Now you've got me confused. You say we're raising 99 as a bluff, but if we're raising to get the Ax, sc's and lower pp's to fold, that's not a bluff.

We aren't. We're raising to fold out PPs < KK, since theres a ton of thise hands in his range and they all beat us, with the added advantage of also folding out any hand he 3b and totally missed with that might outdraw us

Folding is certainly an option, but if we're going to fold on such a dry board when not hitting a set, we might have well have just folded pre. Not really getting the right odds to set mine in a 3-bet pot.

So yeah, maybe Rodney is right. He's 3-betting an UTG raise, so just fold pre?

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JCgrind said:

..

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JCgrind said:

^ hero is IP in this hand

just stoved this cos im on my comp again now. 8% range is AJ0+, ATs+, 88+ KTs+ QJs

so, hands that call a flop raise; AA, KK, AKs, AKo, KQs (maybe KJs)= 2.6%
hands that fold to flop raise; AJo-AQo, ATs-AQs, 88-QQ, QJs= 5.4%

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JOEBOB69 said:

First off eff stacks are $3.95
Second flopping a set closer to 8.5:1
Are we set minning --hell no we are in the pot for value pre, bluff catching post flop.
What hands does villain triple barrel with here AK,KQs,JJ,KK(if he 3bets small pair which i doubt)22,55 and sometimes QQ,AA(but i think villain would be scared of the K on board with 2 previous streets called and ch/c the river).Which leaves a super bluff heavy range for villain on the river.

I like the hand if you called the river.

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JOEBOB69 said:

First off eff stacks are $3.95
Second flopping a set closer to 8.5:1
Are we set minning --hell no we are in the pot for value pre, bluff catching post flop.
What hands does villain triple barrel with here AK,KQs,JJ,KK(if he 3bets small pair which i doubt)22,55 and sometimes QQ,AA(but i think villain would be scared of the K on board with 2 previous streets called and ch/c the river).Which leaves a super bluff heavy range for villain on the river.

I like the hand if you called the river.

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ManicLombax said:

He was 3-betting about 8%, so somewhat light.

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JCgrind said:

Yeah vils 3.95 + our 12c open = 4.07, that's the amount were looking to win since its not ours anymore. Actually i believe i forgot the SB So 28c to win 4.09 seems better, w = x14. I guess I could be completely wrong but this seems pretty damn right to me.

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