re: Poker & 33 in MP. where does the madness stop?!
QQ possible considering he's 50/1. He 'never' raises PF anyway. JJ very unlikely - is he really going to 3-bet JJ on that flop and turn with you showing so much strength?
22 for a lower set - also possible, but he'd probably reraise the flop
Q-anything. Betting and raising QT or QK or something like it. Fairly possible, but his bets show too much strength for this to be really plausible.
Q2/Q3/Q6 for two pair. He'd likely reraise the flop with the first two, and having 50% VP$IP, I wouldn't be surprised if he limped utg with any of the three.
QJ for top pair and flush draw, then 2pair on the river. I think this is pretty likely.
45s - Likely aswell. You said that you don't see this guy limping UTG with it, Tammy, but you have to keep in mind that this guy is 50/1. He's pretty damn loose. His betting explains it perfectly IMO.
Complete bluff - I don't think we can apply the minimum of %10 bluff here that Harrington suggests. Sure maybe a busted flush draw, but in LHE, you really have little chance of bluffing
a capper out of a pot, and I don't see it happening here.
I'm not going to do an EV thing on this, but I think they're all roughly equal in terms of probability that they're what OP is holding. With 4 possible situations that you can beat out of 6, I think this is a cap.