$3000 NL HE Full Ring: River Decision
10/20 NL Effective Stacks 4k
One limp we limp 9
and the button (unknown player) bumps to 120. Limper calls we call
Checks to PFR who bets $200
Limper (loose bluffs a lot, floats even OOP calls down very light...but respects my game) looks like hes about to fold but then calls....we decide to call here
I realize the call on the flop is kinda goofy, but im pretty convinced by players body language that the loose player has something like 66 and im not sure about the unknown yet, thus im treating it as a simple cbet call on my part without much regard to the loose player at this point. My question is not about the flop so flop play assume as is
Turn comes : 7
giving us an up and down SF draw to go with our pair of 8s. Disaster happens though bc the loose player leads out for $600 and leaves us squeezed in between.
Player COULD have a Ten (or worse 77) but will make this play with a bazillion hands as well (borderline maniac aggressive). Our default would be to fold quickly here but bc of this particular opponent I end up calling....im still not too happy though bc like i said we are squeezed...PFR just calls the $600 fairly quickly
Im trying to put PFR on a hand here that doesnt raise and just calls (I expected him to fold)
River comes 8
Ok so we only lose to a ten now.... Loose player checks after a moment, I check and PFR immediately bets $2000. Loose player folds right away and decision is on me
Player is an unknown and the hand has been played very very strange by all 3 of us up to this point (i really expected the river to go check check check scoop me).
Does he really have a Ten here? Does his turn action with his river bet (/bet sizing) make sense? Can we call? What hands can he overcall the turn with and bluff the river with (J9?, AhKh? Overpair turned bluff?)
I realize this could be avoided by folding earlier, but bc of player types and reads, I've gone this far
So whats our play?
Is the superior play to make a defensive bet of like $750 to protect ourselves from being bluffed rather than checking? (checking lets PFR play pretty well he can check back overpairs as well as make big bets that we don't wanna call, where if we bet raising us becomes dangerous/expensive and thus is a T almost always)