3/6, AJo in the BB. River decision.

Pre-flop: (4 players) FP is BB with A♦ J♣
UTG folds, Button raises, SB folds, FP calls.

Flop: 5♦ 3♥ 2♥ (4.33SB, 2 players)
FP checks, Button bets, FP calls.

Turn: Q♦ (3.17BB, 2 players)
FP checks, Button checks.

River: 2♣ (3.17BB, 2 players)
FP bets...


How's my hand reading holding up?

I think he has a higher kicker than you, like a A, K. I think you're beat here. He made a bet on the flop after you checked becuase he thought he could win the pot right there. The queen obviously didn't help him or he would have bet. I'm not well trained in limit but that's my take.

t1riel said:

I think he has two cards.

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FYP. ^^ Villain's range is huge here.

Looks reasonableish to me. I may 3-bet preflop but maybe that's more of an NL thing because you have about 3497683 times more fold equity. Still, villain's check on the turn followed by the blank on the river means the pot is essentially there for the taking.

The only problem is, despite villain's range being huge I don't see many better hands than yours that are folding the river, or many worse hands that call. In fact the more I think about it, the more I'm tempted to check/call river.

Sorry. I'm a littel slow today. what does FYP mean?

Fixed your post.

I think if you check the turn than betting that river is bad. check-call river. a more optimal way to play the hand would be 3-bet preflop and bet flop+turn.

Dorkus Malorkus said:

The only problem is, despite villain's range being huge I don't see many better hands than yours that are folding the river, or many worse hands that call. In fact the more I think about it, the more I'm tempted to check/call river.

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Yeah, that was my other option. Here's my thought process though:

1. He does not have a a high pocket pair. He would not have checked through the turn if he did.
2. He definitely doesn't have AQ. No way he checks then.
3. I discount AK somewhat because he checked the turn. AK is a strong enough hand that most of my opponents tend to fire at least two barrels with it uncontested.
4. Being that he checked the turn, he's opening himself up to being bluffed at. If he realizes this, the range he will call with on the river suddenly increases, adding in mostly any A-x hand.
5. Given that he checked the turn, I doubt he will bet many hands on the river that I can beat ("Hi, I have nothing. Oh wait, okay, I forgot, I have something." - doesn't look believable).

F Paulsson said:

3. I discount AK somewhat because he checked the turn. AK is a strong enough hand that most of my opponents tend to fire at least two barrels with it uncontested.

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I disagree. With AK and no hand, his bet on the flop got him a free card on the turn. Sklansky actually describes this play in a chapter of one of his books (SSHE or HPFAP, forgot which). He saved $6 and took a chance that you would check the river, also. With your bet, he would have to decide whether he had enough value to call with Ace-high, top kicker.

Having said all that, I put him on a pocket pair of Tens or Nines and the Queen scared him. I'll say he ended up calling the river and winning.

He is value betting with a weak a,x... you should almost have him beat unless he has a,2... unlikely but not improbable.

MrSticker said:

I disagree. With AK and no hand, his bet on the flop got him a free card on the turn. Sklansky actually describes this play in a chapter of one of his books (SSHE or HPFAP, forgot which).

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That's a good point, but it's generally more of a move that's used in a multiway pot. Heads-up, he's very likely to be ahead still and needs to bet to protect his hand. Check out that board; me having a naked ace is not at all impossible. Why wouldn't he bet again?

And with that straight draw on board, would he really offer me a free card on the turn if he has a pocket pair?