$2NLHE 6-max: Set facing river flush

$2NL HE 6-max: Set facing river flush

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 44/9/1.5

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($3.27)
UTG ($2.34)
MP ($1.83)
Hero (Button) ($3.18)
SB ($2.83)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q , Q
UTG calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.10, SB calls $0.09, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.32) 4 , 6 , Q (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.20, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.72) 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.60, UTG calls $0.60

River: ($1.92) J (2 players)
UTG bets $0.44, Hero ???

I realise I should have bet a bit more on the flop but other than that - call, fold or raise on the river?

Snap call.

I wouldnt raise, if he has the flush he wont fold.

But the likleyhood is slim.

Really the only hands that he could have are AQs KQs 78s.

3 of the Qs are accounte for so of those hands 78s is the most likely.

You crush everything else in his range.

I wouldnt bet here, but could be wrong. I just dont see him calling with much that you beat.. I think the lead out on the river is a small blocking/bluffing bet.

Maybe he has something like 99/TT and just wants to see a showdown.

I partially agree with stu,
but I have to say raise here with the trip Q's

There is a very slim chance that he has you beat, and if he does then
so be it, he got very lucky then.

Against a 44/9 I'm raising.
If the diamond flush card came on the river only then would I call but the club flush is much less likely and there's all sorts of rags this guy will call our raise with.

yea about that. before I reveal the results how would your answer change (if at all) if the river card was the Jack of diamonds?

jyow said:

yea about that. before I reveal the results how would your answer change (if at all) if the river card was the Jack of diamonds?

Click to expand...

Just call.
Normally I'd consider raising even the diamond flush but you hold top set which takes out most the toppairs and two pairs.
The diamond flush is a very chunky part of his range especially now he's took control of the betting, so I would merely call. You certainty shouldn't fold due to bluffs two pair and the "omg we have a set" factor.

jyow said:

yea about that. before I reveal the results how would your answer change (if at all) if the river card was the Jack of diamonds?

Click to expand...

If anything in the game has indicated this player bluffs on the river then its a snap call.

Forget about if he has a flush or not.

the call costs you 0.44 and the pot is 2.36 giving you odds of 5.3:1

This means that a call like this only has to catch a bluff once every 6 times to be a break even play. If you catch them more than that, you are actually profiting.

This means that the only way you can fold here is if you know that this player absolutely doesn't bluff the river. If he does, then its bound to be of a frequency greater than 15% which is the situation you have right now.

Think of it as betting against the chances of him bluffing rather than value betting your hand.

Oh dear god I didn't see how small the bet was.

Folding this now becomes abominable in my eyes and raising is not as bad but I'd still prefer calling.

Btw, did anyone look at the size of that river bet?

It looks like please don't raise me, and im betting 44 cents because if I check I would have to pay more to show down my hand.

If he really hit that flush, he knows how strong you are considering the way you've been betting and he says oh no way he's folding his strong hand and bets big.