Originally Posted by jyow
yea about that. before I reveal the results how would your answer change (if at all) if the river card was the Jack of diamonds?
If anything in the game has indicated this player bluffs on the river then its a snap call.
Forget about if he has a flush or not.
the call costs you 0.44 and the pot is 2.36 giving you odds
This means that a call like this only has to catch a bluff once every 6 times to be a break even play. If you catch them more than that, you are actually profiting.
This means that the only way you can fold here is if you know that this player absolutely doesn't bluff the river. If he does, then its bound to be of a frequency greater than 15% which is the situation you have right now.
Think of it as betting against the chances of him bluffing
rather than value betting your hand.