re: Poker & $2NL - TT preflop, line check
Originally Posted by spore
Oh, and the difference between shoving pre-flop and calling the 4-bet is that if he has something like AK he may check/fold it on the flop enough to give you a little more EV in this spot.
If he's going to check-fold AK when he misses the flop (I'm not certain he does, BTW, but for the sake of the argument we'll say he does), wouldn't we have been better to get his money in preflop?
If we limit opponent's range solely to AK, we're 56:44 against him preflop in a $2.05 pot, giving us about $1.14 EV.
If we flat call here it's an 81c pot on the flop. He check-folds the 70-odd% of the time when he misses the flop, we bet and take down the pot. The 30-odd% of the time when he connects... what, we assume we're not folding and get it all in, likely leaving us with two outs in a $2.05 pot?
Unless my math is wrong, that gives us a rough EV of (0.81 * 0.7, when he check-folds
) + (2.05 * 0.02, when we get all in and hit our set
) - (2.05 * 0.28, when we get all in and his hand holds up
) = 0.56 + 0.04 - 0.57 = +0.03.
Not only is that significantly lower than the AIPF EV, but it has us losing to rake (which will be 3c or more on the hand).
What if don't put any more money in on boards where an ace or a king flops? Then our EV is (0.81 * 0.7, when he check-folds
) - (0.81 * 0.3, when we check or fold to an ace or king
) = 0.56 - 0.24 = +0.32. Better than the call-anything case, and still positive, but not as good as the AIPF case.
The problem with the above though is it only
takes AK into account. What's our action if the flop is 49Q and the villain leads into us? Do we need to be as worried about a queen as we do an ace or a king? It wouldn't affect us if we get all in preflop, because we perform the same against AQ as we do against AK. Nor does it really change the second case, as we're getting all in regardless. But it significantly reduces our EV in the third case if we have to check or fold to any ace, king and
None of the above was a factor in my decision, BTW, but it's interesting to think about. Keen to hear any other persepectives on this.