$2NL 6 max: SB Flush draw vs. Super Aggro BB

Reads on Villain: Quite aggro, but tight. Doesn't play every other hand like the usual 2$ NL fish. I've seen him bluff raise on a KKQ board, and he raises his draws as well. His range is much bigger than just Kx & two pair.

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Hero is at seat 0 with $2.01.
shrumey is at seat 1 with $1.46.
BB Steve is at seat 3 with $.50.
kennyloggins is at seat 4 with $1.27.
Swissican is at seat 5 with $1.19.


Hero posts the small blind of $.01.
shrumey posts the big blind of $.02.

Hero:

Pre-flop:

BB Steve folds. kennyloggins folds. Hero raises
to $.06. shrumey calls.

Potsize = $0.12

Flop (board: ):

Hero bets $.10. shrumey raises to $.42. Hero....

Potodds on Call - 2:1
Villain has $0.98 remaining, villain's pot odds on shove - 2:1

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So, we have some fold equity and villain is raising a pretty wide range. Ship it in here & semi-bluff, or fold?

off your reads it would not be a bad play for you just to re-raise all-in here you have just about the right implied odds to shove and you will probobly only get called by KA,KQ,Q6,KJ any set( 10 J hearts is possiable but that would just suck) . If he does call you will be drawing to a flush.

You open, he calls. You raise the flop, he re-raises. How can he be bluffing here? You're representing a hand and he's representing a bigger one. Maybe a semi-bluff like A/X of hears, which has you crushed?

I'd bail.

If he's doing this all the time, well, then shove. Because if he's full of BS much of the time, that coupled with your flush outs and any fold equity you might have (not sure how much fold equity plays out in these limits) probably makes it +EV.

I dont dont understand the raise pf out of postion with t3 in a small stakes game where nobody folds. But now that your in this deep i think you have to just put him all in and hope to hit the flush.

pedroman7 said:

I dont dont understand the raise pf out of postion with t3 in a small stakes game where nobody folds. But now that your in this deep i think you have to just put him all in and hope to hit the flush.

Click to expand...

I think I would just fold to the reraise, your original plan was to just steal from the player preflop with suited garbage, and take down the blinds. Now all of a sudden your in a spot where your thinking about playing for stacks with this hand. His reraise would suggest that he likes what he has and means you have may less fold equity than you may think if you shove on him.
I don't really like calling either cause your not getting the right price and your going to get shut out on the turn, and you may not even be drawing to the best hand in the first place. Just my opinion of course...

For the case of a shove (help me out with the math if I'm wrong).

Let's say your outs of 9 hearts are good to keep things simple. So that's about 35% equity in a total pot of $2.60.

So in essense after you push 0.98 your equity of the total pot is around (2.6 x 35%=) $0.91

This is about an .08 cent loss relative to folding (saving the .98 instead, you're definitely not calling I hope).

However you're pusing into a pot of $0.64, so if he folds about more than 1 in 8 times you're showing a profit.

You already said he has bluffed on boards with high cards, and this could be an easy positional play directed at your blatent attempt to steal his blinds. I would make the play and hope for the best, hopefully you're not crushed. You put him on at least 10% bluffs in the situation/position at hand and possibly queens or an underpair (7's-JJ's) that has to be better than the 12.5% you need to make this a profitable call.

I say PUSH.

p.s. I'll make a bet that I messed up somewhere in here, but I stand by my analysis.

That's kinda my though process...

Aren't all the factors there to make this a shove?

1) Villain is fairly tight preflop, so we can steal his blind fairly profitably.
2) He's aggressive postflop, willing to raise flops with a wide range.
3) We have enough equity that we only need to get folds a few times to make
this a profitable play.
4) This is blind vs. blind, and he views me as a very aggressive opponent.

This is a spot where the villain expects me to raise his blind & put a c-bet out there on any flop. So he's likely raising with just about any 2 cards here. Sure, we have T3, but we likely have the best flush draw, which gives us a for sure equity in the pot of about 35%. Folding away that equity is kinda silly, and calling is ridiculous because we're getting neither implied odds or pot odds.

FWIW, I'm in the shove camp on this one.

I'll post the results (which don't matter) in a bit, if there's anymore discussion.

I really don't like the idea of raising an aggro with t,3 oop preflop

once at this stage however, id throw the hand away. I would need an overcard aswell to consider pushing here. If a 2$nl player is re raising, you have to imagine they are going to call a shove, so we have no fold equity either. Just dump it now

Edit: This post was written before i you posted the post above, so i havn't taken what youve written into account