Originally Posted by jeffred1111
You have to make the right play against villain's range, not against one hand picked from his range (unless you know this hand is much more likely than others, wich, @ this point, is not).
But that's the thing, I think villain's range is leaning more towards overs + a flush draw if he flat calls our flop raise, and checks to us on the turn.
I put villain's range as such:
1) JJ+ <-- likely to lead out a bit stronger than just 30% of the pot
2) 99 or less <-- less likely to 3-bet pre-flop
3) Unpaired overcards <-- probably not calling a raise on the flop.
4) Unpaired overs + club draw. (AcKc, AcQc)
Because of the reason's above, I'm leaning more towards group 4. And besides, group 2 is unlikely to fold if we fire on the turn.
Also, if we raise the flop to $7.50, we only have 13$ left behind in a $16.85 pot. Villain has the same issue as well (being pot committed). If we check behind on the turn, we also invite a bluff, which will come in the form of his whole stack rolling into the middle. Would you really prefer checking behind & calling a shove on the river to just pushing ourselves on the turn if checked to? Or worse yet, we check the hand down to showdown, and he shows a draw we could have possibly gotten more value out of by shoving the turn. A turn shove would give a 2:1 draw 2.3:1 on his money... We might see calls from all of villain's range even if we do shove the turn.
Also, we have to dodge a club, an ace, or probably a king if we legitimately want to call a shove on the river. And those are the most likely cards that our villain will shove on if we take the line that you discussed.
However, this is probably a mute point. If we raise the flop bet, we're probably ending the hand, or having villain's range come over the top of us.