25nl. tricky spot with AKs

kingme620

kingme620

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Villian is 51/12/5.3 (73) Easy fold?

Stacks:
MP2 with $16.45
CO with $11.95
BTN with $14.10
SB with $33.80
BB with $19.15
UTG with $5.10
MP1 with $21.95

hand.pl


hand.pl

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
Site: full tilt poker
Dealt to SB:A♥ K♥
Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
1 players fold.
MP1 calls [$0.25]
MP2 calls [$0.25]
2 players fold.
Hero raises to $1.25
1 players fold.
MP1 calls [$1]
MP2 calls [$1]
Total folds this street: 4
Potsize: $4
Flop:
10♠ K♠ 2♠
Hero bets [$3.50]
1 players fold.
MP2 raises to $15.20, and is all in
Hero...?

 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Ewww. I call just because a 5.3 AF is friggin' huge, so this is a draw like 90% of the time.
 
jewboy07

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A or even K of spades? Easy call?

you couldn't have the K of spades cuz its on the board, but with the A of spades i call


otherwise i just fold because even though it could be a draw its just such an icky situation
 
The Shrog

The Shrog

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Looking at his stats, when he donks into you, you could very well be ahead here. I'm thinking an AJ with the As or some weak flush & straight draw.
 
B

baudib1

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With A of spades I can't wait to shove my chips in the middle.

Even though I think this is usually a draw, he could also do this with sets or two pair or made flush, I think, and I don't think our equity is good enough with TPTK to call. There are a lot of donk hands in his garbage range like QsTx or QsJx that are favorites against us.
 
X

xCipx

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ya definitly a fold, he could easily have the flush already, or he might just have a K of spades, and hit a spade and the turn and you would just be drawing dead anyways
 
pedroman7

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It looks like they could have limp/call with suited connectors and made a flush
or with 22 and hit a set. But with those stats you might can add a few hand like KT, KJ, KQ. I think I just fold here, his raise says he can beat top pair
and the size of the raise looks like he is try to protect a small flush, set of 2's, or KT.
 
frisellan

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So you folded correct?
If not how far behind were you?
or was it a bluff?
I hope you folded
 
D

Dr_Dick

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Given villains stats I call here. While there is a possibility of villain flopping a low flush and not wanting to see another spade, his range is huge here. Would a solid made hand really push here with you raising pflop and making a cbet? If I already have a high flush I'm smooth calling or minraising, not pushing to get you off the hand.

I say semi-bluff and your good here.
 
shinedown.45

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Given the previous posts, I would call here.
I had it in my mind to call here when I first read this thread based on villians stats but didn't respond due to my lack of not being able to read HUD stats properly but the the previous posts just solidified my thoughts and also showed me that I know I am reading the stats properly.
Based on the above this is an easy call with villian having a 12% PFR(IMO, is quite high but I could be wrong in the read).
 
Tygran

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For me it comes down to observations beyond the stats.

A high aggression factor like this could mean someone who tries to buy every pot he's in by aggressively betting anything and everything hard and heavy.

It could also mean a much more common donk type where they simply donk out a minimum (or close to minimum) bet every time they get the opportunity.

The later type rarely shoves like this without having something significant. The later type also tends to be more common.

I also find that in general at this level (this is by no means an absolute) the type that is aggressively bluffing big often tends to have a much higher PFR number. Something like 60/40/5 or in that ballpark.


Over 73 hands you should have observed enough to see if this player is the type to aggressively bluff often and big. If you have not observed this trait I lean towards a fold here as someone like this is going to have it or have a draw that is mostly flipping with us at this point. His range is also not limited to 2 spades, but it would include I think 2 pair hands, sets and possibly JQ (esp if one is a spade). The donk small types tend to not go nuts with a single pair..they might not fold it but they don't shove it like this either.
 
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baudib1

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That was my thinking, if we're not drawing dead here we're flipping.
 
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