25NL - Nut fd, gutshot on turn

slycbnew

slycbnew

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Total posts
2,876
Chips
0
New to table, no reads on Villain.

Does the call on the flop make sense, or is it just dumb? Now that I'm on the turn, what do I do in response to Villain's bet?

I think I already know the answers, looking for validation... Thanks

Stacks:
* BB with $25.00
* UTG with $4.75
* UTG+1 with $24.95
* MP1 with $20.10
* MP2 with $27.20
* MP3 with $0.85
* CO with $25.00
* BTN with $4.30
* SB with $24.75

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to MP2:A♠ Q♣
* * Sklansky group 3
Preflop:
* * 2 players fold.
* * MP1 calls [$0.25]
* * Hero raises $1 to $1.25
* * MP3 calls [$0.85] [ all-in ]
* * CO calls [$1.25]
* * 3 players fold.
* * MP1 calls [$1]
* * Total folds this street: 5
* * Potsize: $4.95
Flop:
* * K♠ 9♠ 10♦
* * MP1: checks
* * Hero: checks
* * CO bets [$4]
* * 1 players fold.
* * Hero calls [$4]
* * Total folds this street: 1
* * Potsize: $12.95
Turn:
* * 6♠
* * Hero: checks
* * CO bets [$8]
* * Hero ???

Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
Bleh. We're getting 21:8 or 2.6:1 on our 12 out draw (3:1). So we're getting close to pot odds to call, but we have almost zero implied odds. Villain is also rarely bluffing, since he bet into a nearly dry sidepot with a player already all in.

So if we could never get paid any money when we hit, and villain can't be bluffed off of his hand (he seems strong leading into 2 players, with a sidepot), then the best move would be to fold. But calling is such a small mistake, and we have a weee bit of implied odds against a hand like KQ (if a J hits the board), so I go ahead and call.

This is a real goofy spot btw. If there wasn't a player all in, I might prefer just c-betting this board & barreling the turn. And I really don't like the flop call, since even when the turn hits about as good as it can (next to a Jack), we're still left in crappy spots like these.
 
Last edited:
NineLions

NineLions

Advanced beginner
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Total posts
4,979
Chips
0
Yeah, c-betting the flop may also serve the purpose of a blocking bet since there's a lot of possible useful turn cards, like the one that came. On the other hand, if you're not going to bet because you missed the flop, because it's multiway and because of the flop itself, I'd be inclined to fold flop. So c-bet/fold to raise or check/fold to bet unless it's ridiculously tiny which this one isn't.

On the turn, pretty much as c9 says.
 
Tygran

Tygran

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 4, 2007
Total posts
1,757
Chips
0
Bleh. We're getting 21:8 or 2.6:1 on our 12 out draw (3:1). So we're getting close to pot odds to call, but we have almost zero implied odds. Villain is also rarely bluffing, since he bet into a nearly dry sidepot with a player already all in.

If we really are getting nearly zero implied odds I tend to agree. I also agree villain isn't pure bluffing (often).

However, I think you might be underestimating the implied odds here... We will get value from JQ, lower FDs, set/2 pair hands... Villain willingly bet out on a flush scare card as well here, so we obviously had implied odds. Hell, there are enough villains that will stack off AK even on the flush straight board there at $25... At $25 NL FR I've seen some villains suddenly go nuts with a mediocre hand with a short stack AI like that...


EDIT: I'm not crazy about the flop call either (I don't think it's horrendous either though as pot odds are roughly what they need to be) but just wanted to comment on the implied odds bit
 
Last edited:
Tygran

Tygran

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 4, 2007
Total posts
1,757
Chips
0
Bleh ok so yeah. Completely ignore my post above this one. I misread the hand.


What c9 said was dead on.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Total posts
2,876
Chips
0
I knew the flop call was bad. I didn't like calling the turn, barely having odds to do so. At the time, I also didn't like folding the turn, which I agree was the correct play.

I shoved. I know it's dumb at 25NL, but I felt I had some fold equity with the 3 flush board and the pf raise. I'm 26% to hit one of my 12 outs on the river, and thought there was a good chance he'd fold with any single pair, maybe even two pair. I also knew I wouldn't get paid off if I called the turn and rivered a flush.

What percentage of the time would I need Villain to fold for this to be +Ev? Is there a limit or context where this would be +Ev (I realize that 25NL is not the place for this play)? Thanks
 
Top