Originally Posted by Bombjack
Don't want to sound too harsh, but I think you played it pretty weakly. You allowed him to dictate the action, didn't give him the opportunity to fold his draw or get money in when you were ahead on the turn, then paid him off on the river. If he hadn't minraised the flop, how much would you have bet on the turn? - a bit more than 1/4 pot I expect. Also your flop bet is probably a bit small. You should be getting two streets of value here at least.
I dunno; would he have folded his 8 outer on the turn? Maybe if I shoved, but at that point I'm really dead if he checkraised the flop with QT and had the 8 outer at the flop (which, as a hand, would have made more sense as a hand for him to raise the flop with), or in a risky situation against T8 too.
If he's got any other hand than something with a ten in it or 99/J9/44 I could see him folding if I led at the turn, but my thinking was that the flop raise meant either he's ahead of me on the flop or he's semibluffing with a draw, and on the turn one of the draws may have come in.
But I can see your point about the turn size. If he had not minraised I would have been leading the turn with more than he bet. I may have been too concerned about already being behind and therefore just wanting to see showdown cheaply.
Originally Posted by jeffred1111
C/R turn or bet yourself because playing it passively here:
a) Gives a chance to a drawing hand to fill up
b) Makes us lose value by not having villain pay enough for his draw
The way you played it, villain was betting 100% of the time on the turn, thinking you got caught c-betting and thinking he would make you fold with a weak bet. Please to be raising this next time, this is JJ, 99 or 44 like never after a small turn bet: he would be as much worried about drawing hands as you did with such a hand.
Hmm, my thinking on the turn is either he's already filled, or he's still ahead from the flop, or he's got something but behind me from the flop. If he's still drawing I expected a check on the turn to see the river. Since he bet small, I narrowed that to either ahead letting me call down cheaply, or behind (KJ/QJ or some sort) and making a weak attempt to continue to rep something. If he's behind I don't mind him continuing to bet into me.
I think you're right about sets; it'd be a dangerous play to keep me in it if I'm drawing. What I didn't expect is what he had; a stab at the flop with overcards/runner-runner draw, that only improved on the turn, but didn't yet fill.
Plus, I'm hesitant to keep building a pot with one pair that hasn't improved unless I suspect he's still drawing, which isn't what I suspected, especially after he bet.