re: Poker & $25NL, KK in position
I was suprised that ppl advocated value betting this. Only a complete idiot is flat calling you to the river with 88 or something. There are, and never were any draws out there. So pocket 4s and a 9 is the only thing calling your value bet i think (and both are shoving).
Idk i just get very suspicious when somebody is only flat calling a bet with a flop like that. They aren't on a draw, and they can't have something like an underpair, because they would have to raise the flop or fold (unless they are a terrible calling station). It is a typical flop where somebody is likely to miss, but if they hit they hit big.
I realise this seems a little stupid after you posted the results, but i really was thinking this is an automatic check as i was reading through the posts.
You are either putting him on a 4 or 7s/8s or Qx etc, and he would only flat call any of those to the river if he is a terrible player.
Originally Posted by NineLions
Related question: if you had stats on someone, what stats would lead you to shut down at some point in this hand? Or, would you have called a shove say on the turn? Or is this a hand/board that you're paying someone off almost no matter what?
I'd value bet vs a calling station type player, i would check the river vs anybody else.
I just can't see what hands you could put the villain on that we can beat. Nothing with a Q or J makes sense to stick around with (maybe AQ), only a terrible player is flat calling with a small pp (raise or fold on flop...you don't have any other options), and there are no draws out there.
I'm always fairly wary of players slow playing on paired flops if somebody calls my c bet. Value betting the river just seems like such a -EV play here unless you know he will call with total garbage.