$25NL, I Ponder Floating.

F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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6-max 25NL. Guy posts BB in the CO, it's folded to him, he checks, I raise on the button with QTs.

Blinds fold. He calls.

Flop is A-K-7 rainbow. The pot is $2. He bets $1.50, he has $22.50 behind and I have him covered.

Under what conditions is this flop floatable? What do I need to know about my opponent in order to make that viable?
 
ChuckTs

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What do I need to know about my opponent in order to make that viable?

A few things like flop aggression, tendency to donk-bluff (I see this a lot and note it a lot), and vpip in conjunction with those stats probably helps too.

Against a 'significant' bet like this (ie not <1/2 pot), I'm usually giving up without a very good read that my opponent donk bluffs or gives up easily to aggression. I find the smaller bets (minbets, small probe bets) are usually complete bluffs or weak kings, and that significant ones are often legitimate hands.
 
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dj11

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I'd be tempted to call here if either villain was a maniac, or the dealer winked at me.

Maybe too much TV poker where Keith always reminds Vince that daddy always told him not to go broke chasing a gut shot.;)
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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Seeing as he's just posted in the CO I guess we don't actually have any info on him. Readless, I probably just toss this and wait to get a handle on villain.

But that wasn't the question! :)

Random musings:

- It's a decent flop for floating. By calling we're telling him we have some sort of made hand. The antithesis of this is that there are no real scare cards we can represent as having helped us on the turn, however this actually helps us in position as the fact that no scare cards can fall means that if villain thinks he was ahead on the flop, he will have little reason to think otherwise on the turn. Hence, if he checks the turn it tells us he's actually not so sure of his hand, and we stand a good chance of taking the pot with a bet.

- Your average villain is not likely to donkbet here with a huge hand. 2 pair+ invariably slowplays and tries to milk some money from your Ace-something hands here. Villain's most likely holdings are Ax/Kx hands which are fishing for information.

- We have 4 outs to the nuts, which is a small consideration, but it's a nice potential fallback to have.

I initially said I toss this readless but I've almost talked myself around to the opposite line of thinking, heh. Obviously knowing how often villain two-barrels (and what his rough two-barrelling range is - i.e. is he capable of firing again as a bluff, will he fire again with marginal hands or does he have to have a strong holding to fire again) is somewhat important, as is other stuff I haven't thought about yet.
 
Four Dogs

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I'd be tempted to call here if either villain was a maniac, or the dealer winked at me.

Maybe too much TV poker where Keith always reminds Vince that daddy always told him not to go broke chasing a gut shot.;)
He's not chasing. He's considering forcing the other player out of the pot on a later round. If the guys a maniac then you're not going to consider floating him at all. Implied odds might make a call reasonable then, but your not likely to get him to fold a better hand.

Were talking about an advanced play here which will only work against a player you have reason to believe will fold the best hand. We know nothing about this player other than that he's not even patient enough to wait for the BB at a short table.

To be a viable candidate for a float I think were looking for a low showdown rate. Under 20% sounds about right. I think you'll need a 100 hands to know if he fits the bill.
 
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Dorkus Malorkus

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yeah, if villain is a maniac he's more likely to make a turn bet that we can't play back at, so why you'd be tempted to call against a maniac i really don't know. :eek:
 
tenbob

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I really don't like floating unknowns, and bad players.

If I have seen some prior history that lets me know that I can get him off a hand KJ on a safe turn card then yea its worth it. The thing is that most of these donks if they call a raise with a rag ace then they will play it for stacks once it hits. The interesting part of this hand I think is the gutshot, and it makes things a little more interesting. We have a fall back to a nut draw if the float fails, so we can extract value and try to stack said weak ace if we do hit.

Again its one of these very marginal situations that in the heat of the moment we can play either way. My style is nittier than most though and all in all, I don't think its worth it here.
 
Irexes

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My (still emerging) approach here is to fold. I'd need a lot more to go for the float or consider the implied odds to the nuts.

(that was my first contribution to a ring HH thread. See how I skillfully added nothing to the discussion :) )
 
F Paulsson

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What if his stats are something in the order of 30/15 preflop, and his postflop stats resemble those of someone trying to play well?

If he raises many hands preflop, AK, AA and KK don't really fit the pattern. Weak aces might, though, and that's the problem holding in this scenario.

The reason this hand stood out as interesting is because of the implications of his bet. With a read like the one I supplied, he's doing one of three things:

1. He's bluffing.
2. He's betting a hand like KQ to see if I'll fold (because he sure isn't happy about stacking off with it)
3. He's betting out with a big hand (i.e. 77) hoping that I'll raise.

In case 1, well... I dunno. It's a risky board to bet a second barrel into a guy who raised preflop.

In case 2, he'll - presumably - check/fold the turn. A decent player isn't going to call a bet on the turn with second pair on an ace-high board.

In case 3, I will have a decent chunk of implied odds. Clearly, though, I will fold to a turn checkraise if he goes for it since checking behind for a free river is something that defeats the purpose of floating.

Oh, and I agree that it's close. But I find that I learn so much from the close decisions. :)
 
NineLions

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I like the question, FP. Though him posting in the CO but you having stats on him is contradictory unless you've played at other table before. If so, then he also has info on you. Whether or not he uses them at $25NL is another matter.

If he does have reads and he has 77, what does he expect us to do with this flop? One train of thought would be to assume we have hit the flop and he wants to start getting the money in, because if we haven't hit the flop he isn't going to get a whole lot anyway (isn't that an Ed Miller idea? I've been reading some of his stuff lately and it sounds recently familiar). The other would be to assume we're going to at least c-bet and he can at least get our flop c-bet if he would check to us on the flop.

KQ check preflop is a bit weak for CO at 6 max, isn't it? Still, even KJ/KT, or what about QJ could be potential float targets, and are statistically more likely that 77. I dunno about A7/K7s.
 
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