25NL FR Steal, Whiffed CBet, Turned top pair facing river bet

Villain just joined table so no stats. Do I call this river bet?

Stacks:
* Styllus with $13.80
* BTN with $34.05
* SB with $7.00
* BB with $13.75
* UTG with $4.65
* UTG+1 with $25.35
* MP1 with $58.75
* MP2 with $26.90




Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: pokerstars
Dealt to BTN:K♣ 4♠
Preflop:
* * 5 players fold.
Hero raises $0.50 to $0.75
* * 1 players fold.
* * BB calls [$0.50]
* * Total folds this street: 6
* * Potsize: $1.6
Flop: J♠ 6♣ J♣
* * BB: checks Hero bets [$0.75]
* * BB calls [$0.75]
* * Potsize: $3.1
Turn: K♠
* * BB: checks Hero: checks
* * Potsize: $3.1
River: 3♥
* * BB bets [$3]

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Your c-bet size sucks fer rizzle dizzle. I'd usually c-bet this for like $1.25. Snap call the river bet as well vs. an unknown.

Why does the CBet need to be larger? On this board there aren't many draws, and I think 75 cents does the same as $1.25 so why not make the bet smaller and therefore making the bet have to work less often for it to be profitable.

rileyl said:

Why does the CBet need to be larger? On this board there aren't many draws, and I think 75 cents does the same as $1.25 so why not make the bet smaller and therefore making the bet have to work less often for it to be profitable.

Click to expand...

Because when I have an actual hand, I bet 1.25. I guess its okay against idiots, but this is the #1 tell I look for when playing people. And I think a larger c-bet actually has more fold equity. Plus, betting large is way more fun.

a small conti bet like that often makes ur alarm bell go "player doesnt have a hand"... btn raise could also be slightly bigger... call river, see what he has, make some good notes

As long as you're c-betting half pot when you flop AJ as well, I'm happy with the bet sizing, especially given that BB only has a half stack to begin with. I've made a point in making smaller c-bets since I'm generally bluffing when I make them and that accomplishes two things:

1. I give myself better odds on my bluffs, and
2. When I have something decent, calling a check/raise isn't quite as expensive.

This has to be weighed against the risk that we fail to get full stacks in when flop a monster, and with the risk of giving draws good pot/implied odds to call us. Knowing a little about the opponent goes a long way here; their call-flop-cbet-% is valuable, as is their willingness to go to showdown.

But betting halfpot on a dry board isn't necessarily bad, depending on how it fits in with the rest of our strategy. Clearly OP is stealing a lot, and then making small c-bets can very well be the way to go.

I see your points about making the same bet whether I have the made hand or not and obviously against decent competition that becomes much more important. I don't think it's a very big deal at 25NL and that not many players would catch on if I did end up making a bigger bet with the bigger which in this spot I don't think I would have anyways.

Looking at some ev calculations for the two CBets:

0=1.6(1-x) + 0.75x
x=.68

Villain must fold 32% of the time to break even.

0=1.6(1-x) + 1.25x
x=.56

Villain must fold 44% of the time to break even.

Are there really that many more hands that he calls the 75 cent bet with? Of course I'm ignoring the fact of giving off betting tells if I decide to bet bigger with a made hand as I don't think it matters at this level.

What's more important, is that 12% advantage enough of an advantage that it mitigates the downsides of betting small (slightly less FE, giving off tells or not getting $ in the pot with a big hand)? I wouldn't think so.

And I do actually look at bet-size when I decide wether I'm going to float or check raise a player. Its not a very complex thought process to go "Gee, that bet is small, he must not have much." And I give any decent TAG credit for that level of thinking, even at 25NL.

You've shown weakness after an stealy looking raise by making a weak c-bet on the flop, then checking behind the turn. If the villain had a hand he wanted to get some value from, he probably would bet less than pot, as this one did. I think you should call.

I think you should call that river bet, just so you can see what he's holding (If shown). The bets not so big that it will cripple you and this way you can see if he's able to make that bet with nothing. Just the same, if he shows a jack to take it down, just consider it paying for some information.

Oh, I guess never said anything about the river. Yeah, the river is a snap-call. That's the whole purpose of checking behind the turn is to induce bluffs. The river has to be called, or else we should have bet/folded the turn.

Ya I was pretty sure river was a quick call. The part of this hand that pissed me off is that I had like 1 sec in my time bank and it ended up that I timed out so my hand was folded lol.

This hand generated some interesting discussion on CBet sizing and I still like the size of my flop bet. I think the decision is really strategy based as FP said. Basically I steal alot so the smaller bet with better odds is probably better for me. In this specific case the difference in FE with the two bet sizes is slim to none imo. I also think that if I did have a Jack I would still be able to stack the villain with this bet size, especially since the only real hands in his range that stack here are Jacks and 66 and I think I will be able to get the money in either case regardless of the flop bet. I guess to each his own, but bigger isn't necessarily better!