25NL FR: Multiway pot limped pot gets to HU river

Villain is 41/0/2.3 over 20 hands. I don't have any other prior reads on him.

He seems like he IS chasing some sort of draw here. Based on his stats and his actions in the hand, should I take a stab at the river here? or just check it down?


:: HOLD'EM MANAGER ::
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer Game#21633129289
Usurpov ($25)
tlc50 ($11.95)
MichFan423 ($8.60)
Moeppi01 ($7.80)
slayP00N ($25)
Mohr83 ($34.65)
yjqian23 ($25)
minughman ($26.50)
MrSticker66 ($23.10)

Usurpov posts (SB) $0.10
tlc50 posts (BB) $0.25

Dealt to MrSticker66 8s 7s
fold, fold, fold, call, fold,
call, call, call, check,

FLOP ($1.25) Js 8c Ts
check, check, check,
minughman bets $1
MrSticker66 calls $1
Usurpov folds
tlc50 folds
Mohr83 calls $1

TURN ($4.25) Js 8c Ts 6h
check, check,
MrSticker66 bets $2.75
Mohr83 folds
minughman calls $2.75

RIVER ($9.75) Js 8c Ts 6h Kh
minhughman checks
MrSticker66 ????

20 hands is really nothing, so i wouldnt put too much into that...

if u think he had a spade draw and he missed, then u should bet of course... i cant have Q9, cause he wouldve at least raised the turn, if not even check-raised the flop.. unless he sucks of course...

then again, u only have 2nd bottom pair, which isnt much... maybe u can get him off a T or a J.... i still think you should check, cause ur not gonna get called by anything that you have beat..

I posted this late last night, so I'll just bump it today.

Hmmm.... He could have been chasing the flush also, perhaps he has a 9, maybe with a pair like 10 9 or something. I wouldn't mind betting out $5-6 here to try and pick this up

mrjohnson911 said:

if u think he had a spade draw and he missed, then u should bet of course.

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No, if you really put someone on a missed draw, and you have showdown value (like OP does), then betting accomplishes nothing. Missed draws will either fold or bluff-raise, putting you to a tough decision.

Richyl2008 said:

Hmmm.... He could have been chasing the flush also, perhaps he has a 9, maybe with a pair like 10 9 or something. I wouldn't mind betting out $5-6 here to try and pick this up

Click to expand...

I like this advice. It's very possible he has a weak pair that happens to be better than yours (especially if he had a 9 and had the straight draw as well), and a bet might get him to fold.

I know you're asking for advice on the river, but why did you only call flop and then bet turn before he acts? Personally I raise that flop and look to get it in. You have a pair plus flush draw plus a gutshot. Now granted they're not always clean but against like AA here you have 9+5+3 = 17 outs, meaning you're actually a decent favorite here. Even against sets you have 10 outs but they have redraws.

But anyway, after we flat the flop I see no reason whatsoever to bet the turn. What kind of range are we putting him on that we only flat a flop bet then bet turn like this? Our equity has greatly decreased as now our hand is a significant dog to top pair/over pair type hands.

On the river I just check here. You're not really representing anything so I think villain could even call like AJ here, he's not folding a K. The only thing betting acheives is fold out tens and better 8's, while it's possible he's check-calling this river with a lot of other made hands checking here to try to induce a bluff from a missed draw. If he missed his draw we probably have him beat anyway, so I think river is just a check.

That replayer HH sucks. So here it is again but in regular form and I might as well post the results now.

I flatted PF and flop because all the players in there was a bit scary. But I knew my hand had multiway playability.

I bet the turn because I was in position. I guess that other HH was hard to follow in that respect.

Sounds like I should have checked the river, but I really thought I had a good read at the time. Lucky guess?

***** Hand History for Game 21633129289 *****
$25.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, October 30, 10:13:37 ET 2008
Table Ehrdni II (real money)
Seat 7 is the button
Seat 1: MichFan423 ( $8.60 USD )
Seat 2: Moeppi01 ( $7.80 USD )
Seat 3: slayP00N ( $25.00 USD )
Seat 4: Mohr83 ( $34.65 USD )
Seat 5: yjqian23 ( $25.00 USD )
Seat 6: minughman ( $26.50 USD )
Seat 7: MrSticker66 ( $23.10 USD )
Seat 8: Usurpov ( $25.00 USD )
Seat 9: tlc50 ( $11.95 USD )
Usurpov posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
tlc50 posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to MrSticker66 [ 8s 7s ]
MichFan423 folds
Moeppi01 folds
slayP00N folds
Mohr83 calls [$0.25 USD]
yjqian23 folds
minughman calls [$0.25 USD]
MrSticker66 calls [$0.25 USD]
Usurpov calls [$0.15 USD]
tlc50 checks
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ts, 8c, Js ]
Usurpov checks
tlc50 checks
Mohr83 checks
minughman bets [$1.00 USD]
MrSticker66 calls [$1.00 USD]
Usurpov folds
tlc50 folds
Mohr83 calls [$1.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6h ]
Mohr83 checks
minughman checks
MrSticker66 bets [$2.75 USD]
Mohr83 folds
minughman calls [$2.75 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Kh ]
minughman checks
MrSticker66 bets [$8.00 USD]
minughman folds
MrSticker66 wins $9.30 USD from main pot
MrSticker66 wins $8.00 USD from main pot

What is your purpose for betting on the river here? Is it a bluff or is it for value?

bw07507 said:

What is your purpose for betting on the river here? Is it a bluff or is it for value?

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I'd say bluff. Since I was calling or betting all the way from the flop, I was repping something like a strong Jack. For some reason, the King didn't scare me.

- As zach said we flopped a good hand, we should be raising (a) for value (mainly from loose/passive guy) (b) because we might push out a better flush draw or other draws, and (c) we might push out some better made hands.

- The river bet really doesn't look like a good 'bluff' to me. If we assume villain's stats are accurate (which is a flawed assumption but the best we can do given the information at hand) then he's pretty much calling with anything that beats us and folding anything we beat. Even if villain is a better player than his stats indicate, we're not really repping any hand at all here and that is likely to make him suspicious. A strong J raises flop for value, to push out possible EP draws, and maybe to isolate against the apparently bad player, a draw takes a free card on the turn, a monster doesn't flat call such a dangerous flop. If villain is an average thinking player, this uncertainty is more likely to influence a call than a fold with marginal hands (I think it was Caro who mentioned that most players are always looking for excuses to call).

Just check and expect to win the pot more often than not.

MrSticker said:

I bet the turn because I was in position. I guess that other HH was hard to follow in that respect.

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No offense, but "because I was in position" is not a good reason to bet. What hands did you hope would fold to your bet? What hands did you think would call? Everytime we make a bet we should be thinking about why and how it affects the range of our opponent, and if it's an intelligent opponent we should think about how it affects our range as well. Also we should be thinking about the purpose behind the bet. What do we want to accomplish with this bet?

I agree with Zach here. Flatting the flop and betting the turn doesn't make a whole lot of sense here. If you're gonna play it passively on the flop, take the free card on the turn.

Anyways, I definitely think we should be raising pre-flop and for sure should be raising the flop and looking to get it in. As played, on the river I just check. there's enough busted draws that your hand does have some showdown value and it's gonna be tough to fold out anything that's beating you.

zachvac said:

No offense, but "because I was in position" is not a good reason to bet. What hands did you hope would fold to your bet? What hands did you think would call? Everytime we make a bet we should be thinking about why and how it affects the range of our opponent, and if it's an intelligent opponent we should think about how it affects our range as well. Also we should be thinking about the purpose behind the bet. What do we want to accomplish with this bet?

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OK. Then how about "because I still had a multi-draw on the turn AND position"? I had a straight flush draw and possibly a draw to trip 8's, but I wouldn't count a non-spade 9 as being solid for me. What's the possibility of him having a FD also? I actually think that was the case but he didn't pair like I did. I probably would have lost my stack if a flush other than a 9s came.

So the consensus seems to be that I should have raised PF & flop and checked the turn & river. I was cautious against 5 players, but aggressive against 1-2. But you say I was backwards? I guess I'll have to trust you on this and study it until I can wrap my head around it.

MrSticker said:

So the consensus seems to be that I should have raised PF & flop and checked the turn & river. I was cautious against 5 players, but aggressive against 1-2. But you say I was backwards? I guess I'll have to trust you on this and study it until I can wrap my head around it.

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No no no no no no. BECAUSE you didn't raise on the flop, you should be checking the turn. If you had raised the flop, betting the turn would be perfectly fine. But the way you played the two streets are very contradictory and doesn't help to accomplish much of anything. You should be raising the flop here because you flopped a huge hand in a very small pot. You'll almost never be very far behind if you get it in, and you have pretty much all likely holdings crushed. Since this is the case, the amount of players in the pot is fairly irrelevant.

dsvw56 said:

No no no no no no. BECAUSE you didn't raise on the flop, you should be checking the turn. If you had raised the flop, betting the turn would be perfectly fine. But the way you played the two streets are very contradictory and doesn't help to accomplish much of anything. You should be raising the flop here because you flopped a huge hand in a very small pot. You'll almost never be very far behind if you get it in, and you have pretty much all likely holdings crushed. Since this is the case, the amount of players in the pot is fairly irrelevant.

Click to expand...

OK good. I think I'm gettting it then. Thanks.

MrSticker said:

OK. Then how about "because I still had a multi-draw on the turn AND position"? I had a straight flush draw and possibly a draw to trip 8's, but I wouldn't count a non-spade 9 as being solid for me. What's the possibility of him having a FD also? I actually think that was the case but he didn't pair like I did. I probably would have lost my stack if a flush other than a 9s came.

So the consensus seems to be that I should have raised PF & flop and checked the turn & river. I was cautious against 5 players, but aggressive against 1-2. But you say I was backwards? I guess I'll have to trust you on this and study it until I can wrap my head around it.

Click to expand...

This is not what I'm trying to say, what I'm trying to do is get you to think about what you're trying to accomplish. Your opponent has a range of hands here. You need to think about:

1. What that range consists of (it's ok to classify one segment as "air", you don't need to think of each crap combo possible lol)
2. What a bet does to that range. What part of that does he fold? What part does he call? What part does he raise? What is our plan if he raises?
3. What are we going to do on the river if he calls? If he calls turn and we hit a blank can we bluff? Value bet? If the river fills the flush can we value bet? What if he leads the river on any river card?

I've said what I think I would do but the biggest thing is to be thinking about why we do things. It's not going to do much good to just think "if I get into a situation where I have a combo draw on the flop I should raise". We need to be thinking about why we do things.

Hopefully I explained why I'd do what I'd do ok in my previous posts. But every time you make a bet you should be thinking through these things. What does he have in this situation? What part will he fold/call/raise? What will I do if he raises? What will I do on various turn/river cards if he calls?