$25NL FR KK OOP in 3bet pot vs maniac

BTN is 51/21/3.5 50% ats, 50% fold to 3bet over 75 hands.

Can I possibly fold this river against this guy?

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HAND #1
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party poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker
BB: $14.50 (58 bb)
UTG+1: $13.95 (55.8 bb)
UTG+2: $32.80 (131.2 bb)
MP1: $24.65 (98.6 bb)
MP2: $22.35 (89.4 bb)
MP3: $23.05 (92.2 bb)
CO: $17.60 (70.4 bb)
BTN: $14.80 (59.2 bb)
Hero (SB): $32.75 (131 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with K K
6 folds, BTN raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $3.50, BB folds, BTN calls $2.75
Flop: ($7.25) A 6 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks
Turn: ($7.25) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50
River: ($14.25) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $7.80 and is all-in, Hero??

I would have to say they probably didn't hit the A because they didn't bet it on the flop with position. Knowing you checked should have induced a bet by an Ace. When he bet the turn it could have been the straight wanted to push out any possible flush draws. The all in on the river is interesting but seeing as you didn't bet the flop he can be safe to assume you didn't hit a full house, so if he had the straight should be good. Otherwise the only other hand that would bet that way is a 5. Tough lay down, but I think you have to lay it down, I don't think your KK is any good.

beefcake413 said:

I would have to say they probably didn't hit the A because they didn't bet it on the flop with position. Knowing you checked should have induced a bet by an Ace. When he bet the turn it could have been the straight wanted to push out any possible flush draws. The all in on the river is interesting but seeing as you didn't bet the flop he can be safe to assume you didn't hit a full house, so if he had the straight should be good. Otherwise the only other hand that would bet that way is a 5. Tough lay down, but I think you have to lay it down, I don't think your KK is any good.

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wat?

You decided he didn't have the ace on the turn when he bet half the pot, and you called.

The river puts you in the exact same scenario--what changed?

Personally, I think you should have led out on the flop as a feeler to see where you were. A smallish bet gives you the opportunity to keep the pot small too. If he thought you had an ace with a bigger kicker, he might have just called small bets thinking that he was being milked into paying you off if you both had aces.

califantasy said:

Personally, I think you should have led out on the flop as a feeler to see where you were. A smallish bet gives you the opportunity to keep the pot small too. If he thought you had an ace with a bigger kicker, he might have just called small bets thinking that he was being milked into paying you off if you both had aces.

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I make soooooo much money out of people who think like you do.

Flop and turn are standard here. I think you can make arguments for betting, check-calling and check-folding river, but i tend to prefer a check-call.

BelgoSuisse said:

I make soooooo much money out of people who think like you do.

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Seriously, though, califantasy. What you propose is a HUGE leak in your game.
Please learn about WA/WB, that will save you a ton of money.

so what happened?

I think I play this like hero...but I don't necessarily feel overly confident. LAG villian raises in steal position, we wake up with KK and pop. Villian calls... could be Ax - could be anything at 25L.
I'd say this about the flop... if hero doesn't lead into it - when playing against aggresive opportunistic opponent - then he better be prepared to let the villian come at him and defend. Leading the flop is actually the more defensive play I think... if that gets called - you're done.

BelgoSuisse said:

I make soooooo much money out of people who think like you do.

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And yet I seem to do okay. I guess I must be paying you with OPM.

BelgoSuisse said:

you can make arguments for betting, check-calling and check-folding river, but i tend to prefer a check-call.

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You abdicate a check-call on the river. I think we can agree that he shouldn't lead out, but I was wondering why you would decide to call and then defend it with WA/WB? I think anyone in the Villian's shoes would bet the turn if the hero checks, but another bullet on the river probably means Ax. I think that you are throwing money away here about 90-95 percent of the time, to win a 2-1 pot. That is unless you have a huge read on your opponent, and know he is liable to bet 'air' a second time.

BelgoSuisse said:

Seriously, though, califantasy. What you propose is a HUGE leak in your game.
Please learn about WA/WB, that will save you a ton of money.

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I agree that most who subscribe to WA/WB would say that a feeler bet on the flop is foolish, but IMO a small bet on the flop might feel like a trap to the Villian, and he is not likely to raise unless he has a hand. More times than not, he mucks anything less than Ax here, and if he calls, I'm content to get away from my KK when he leads out on a later street.

So Cali if you say that he is going to fold any hand less then Ax then what is the point of betting? We are not getting any value from hands we have beat from the way you are talking about playing the hand later you are just asking to get floated by any decent LAG or even TAG and getting bluffed when we actually do have the best hand.

Sorry but your logic makes no sense.

rileyl said:

So Cali if you say that he is going to fold any hand less then Ax then what is the point of betting?

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Nope didn't say that. Please re-read.

I abdicated betting the flop to see where we are, then check-fold the turn and riv if called without improving.

Trying to see "where we are" is not a good reason to bet. We want to bet to get value from hands that we have beat or to not give opponents the correct odds to continue. In this spot, WA/WB, applies we are not getting value from many hands we are ahead of, and when we are ahead we really don't have to worry that much about giving a free card.

And maybe you didn't read my whole post. Betting here, especially if your bet looks weak ( As an bet for "information" will look). Is just asking to get floated by any decent aggressive player. He can flat your bet, knowing your range here is mostly KK, QQ, JJ, AK and then fire the turn once you check it to him. By betting here your basically asking to get owned.

rileyl said:

Betting here, especially if your bet looks weak ( As an bet for "information" will look). Is just asking to get floated by any decent aggressive player. He can flat your bet, knowing your range here is mostly KK, QQ, JJ, AK and then fire the turn once you check it to him. By betting here your basically asking to get owned.

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I'm going to give this some more thought. I think there is merit to what you are saying.

OOP against a monkey who folds at least 50%, leading this flop isn't terrible.

califantasy said:

I abdicated betting the flop to see where we are, then check-fold the turn and riv if called without improving.

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You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

viking999 said:

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

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ab·di·cate (bd-kt)
v. ab·di·cat·ed, ab·di·cat·ing, ab·di·cates
v.tr.
To relinquish (power or responsibility) formally.
v.intr.
To relinquish formally a high office or responsibility.

viking999 said:

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

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You should have let him keep doing it. I thought it was funny

And maybe english is his second language, so he's not quite sure how to spell advocated.

c9h13no3 said:

You should have let him keep doing it. I thought it was funny

And maybe english is his second language, so he's not quite sure how to spell advocated.

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I see now what you mean, and yes, I guess I sounded pretty funny. I did intend to use advocated.

English is actually my second language, but I'm not very good with my first either; and I have been in the US long enough that I should have known the difference between the two words.

Thank-you to all who are here to provide both poker and language lessons ;-)

califantasy said:

I'm going to give this some more thought. I think there is merit to what you are saying.

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Gosh, hopefully no one reading those of us advocating a lead flop bet - think for a minute we're talking about a weak, feeble, blocking bet... I want to make a bet that essentially gives me confidence that a caller actually has me beat. (anything else would be abdication).