$25NL FR - JJ, what to do post flop

Debi

Debi

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I hope I don't drive you guys crazy with my hands but I have so many questions so many times lol.

pokerstars Game #20382716639: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/09/13 18:00:32 ET
Table 'Phad IV' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 2: RockNDoc13 ($35.90 in chips)
Seat 3: dakota-xx ($33.35 in chips)
Seat 4: PERFECK1 ($20.40 in chips)
Seat 5: powermessy ($10 in chips)
Seat 6: DrJ079 ($70.25 in chips)
Seat 8: spridget ($3.50 in chips)
Seat 9: horacles ($26.65 in chips)
horacles: posts small blind $0.10
EnjoyLife73: is sitting out
EnjoyLife73 leaves the table
RockNDoc13: posts big blind $0.25
ladebonis: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dakota-xx [Js Jh]
dakota-xx: raises $0.75 to $1
PERFECK1: calls $1
Maniac-LDK joins the table at seat #1
powermessy: folds
DrJ079: folds
spridget: calls $1
horacles: calls $0.90
RockNDoc13: calls $0.75
*** FLOP *** [7d 5d 6c]
horacles: bets $1.25
RockNDoc13: calls $1.25
dakota-xx: ????

I was playing in the CC game - only read I have is spridget - he is worse than me lol. He plays very loose and can't give up hands.
 
Irexes

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You're in prime set mining territory here. Raising is usually only going to give you more difficult decisions on later streets (if they don't fold, and if that is the intent you are not betting the value of the JJ, you are effectively bluffing, which is weird, not completely horrible, just weird and dangerous) and if you call here then how do you justify folding to a bet on the turn if it's a card lower than a J, and if it's higher than a J you're in trouble as well.

Folding might be the better part of valour here :)
 
F

feitr

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I'll just copy and paste what i wrote.

Well that is about the worst possible flop you could have had especially with all those limpers. Flat call flop, but if there is alot of action i'd toss it. Definitely don't raise, if that is what you are wondering, because boards like that obviously tend to produce straights/huge combo draws/2 pair/sets very often vs a somewhat decent cold calling range, and you don't want to be building a big pot where you are either way behind or barely ahead.

Basically my plan in this hand would be to keep the pot as small as possible and be willing to toss your hand if the turn card is a scare (completes flush draw and any straight card, 3 9 8 etc). If the turn is a brick (one of the problems is that there aren't all that many bricks...the safest cards are big broadway cards which may mean you are now behind to a bigger pair) i'd probably call a small turn bet again and reevaluate river. Depends alot on your reads of the players, as some bad players will obviously get out of line with a hand like A7 here.

I don't like folding to the flop bet because it is a TINY underbet (how can you ever fold an overpair to 20% pot donk bet :S) and as such people are going to call it with marginal holdings, not because they have a huge hand (which will raise on this board and you can fold easily).
 
Jagsti

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Yeah thats an ugly flop. I hate folding here though so I'm gonna see what they do on the turn. Call and hope they slow down on a blank turn imo.
 
Stick66

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Wow! I can't believe I'm gonna have the most aggressive opinion here:

You said you only have a read on a player behind you. So I would actually raise to about $6.00 here (over pot-sized). Do it now while it is cheap. I would want to thin the herd and even try to iso one of these guys in front of me. Yes, the board is draw-heavy. But the straight cards would not have likely called the PF raise. So now you just want to scare away the flush draw and overcards like AK. If you get the guys behind you to fold, you will be in position the rest of the way and can gain even more control. If the turn brings a scare card, you will be in position to check if checked to. I think your overpair is too strong to fold here. I guess I'm not a nit anymore. :cool: :cool:
 
Tygran

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Wow! I can't believe I'm gonna have the most aggressive opinion here:

You said you only have a read on a player behind you. So I would actually raise to about $6.00 here (over pot-sized). Do it now while it is cheap. I would want to thin the herd and even try to iso one of these guys in front of me. Yes, the board is draw-heavy. But the straight cards would not have likely called the PF raise. So now you just want to scare away the flush draw and overcards like AK. If you get the guys behind you to fold, you will be in position the rest of the way and can gain even more control. If the turn brings a scare card, you will be in position to check if checked to. I think your overpair is too strong to fold here. I guess I'm not a nit anymore. :cool: :cool:

And what do you do if your reraise gets rereraised or shoved on? A set, straight AND flush draw all might do this. A pair + draw(s) might do this often.

What do you do if you are called and then facing another turn bet after a 4/8 or club hit the board? What about an overcard (ace especially)? There are potentially 11 clubs, 6 more 4's/8's, and 9 more Q/K/A in the deck..that's 26 scare cards which is over half the deck and there is no guarantee we are ahead now.

Our hand on this board is not that strong and should be treated appropriately. I don't entirely mind a fold although it does feel kinda weak...personally I like a call and reevaluate on the turn but as already stated over half the deck can bring a "scare" card. I really don't think this is a raise ever.
 
Stick66

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What about winning the pot right there? I still don't understand why everyone wants to play this so weakly. Why let our opponents draw cheaply? Calling $1.25 from MP on this flop just gives the last 2 guys better odds to chase. I say make 'em pay! If we get re-raised right there, decide then. I say don't let them see the next card for better than 2-1. If they gamble and hit, then whatever. At least we tried.
 
ChuckTs

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It's about winning the most money stick, not winning the most pots. Raising here bloats the pot and commits us against what is most likely a range we're either not very far ahead of (draws) or are crushed by (sets, straights etc). Not what we want to do.

Basically it's either we lose a small pot by giving up now, or build a HUGE pot when we have relatively poor equity. Punch some hands into pokerstove and you'll see what I mean.
 
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feitr

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What about winning the pot right there? I still don't understand why everyone wants to play this so weakly. Why let our opponents draw cheaply? Calling $1.25 from MP on this flop just gives the last 2 guys better odds to chase. I say make 'em pay! If we get re-raised right there, decide then. I say don't let them see the next card for better than 2-1. If they gamble and hit, then whatever. At least we tried.

There is a HUGE difference between this board and between a non coordinated board 2 suited or a rainbow semi coordinated board like t92r. Sure you can "make the draws pay" on boards like that, but on a board like this 1. ALOT of draws have better equity in the pot than our overpair and 2. so many hands have us completely crushed (2 pair/set/straight etc) and these hands may be played very similarily to combo draws. So you really have no idea whether you are getting involved with okish equity vs a pretty big draw or are completely crushed by a made hand.

Raise this board, or get involved with alot of action and your "make them pay for their draw" is going to get you involved in a big pot with little equity.
 
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feitr

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But the straight cards would not have likely called the PF raise. So now you just want to scare away the flush draw and overcards like AK.
The way the hand played out pf, plenty of hands will cold call pf. With so many people coming along for the ride any s/c or pp is an easy call here to see the flop, and, in any case, typically these are the sort of hands you expect to see TAGs calling, especially in a multiway pot where a hand like AQ is absolute trash.

Flop is 567ss...so let's look at some of the hands.

PPs: 44 has 10 outs. 55/66/77 are miles ahead. 88 also has 10 outs vs us. The only pps we are dominating are 22/33/99/TT, and the only hands potentially getting involved are 99/TT (and even 99 has 24% equity vs us). This is obviously an incredibly narrow range of pps from which we could ever extract value (and very little value since these hands aren't getting excited on this flop).

S/Cs: 43 has us dominated. 45 has 13 outs. 56 has us dominated. 67 has us dominated. 78 has 13 outs. 89 has us dominated. 9T and JT are the only suited connectors we dominate. None of the S/Cs we fair well against, except maybe 9T are ever coming along if we try to build a big pot. Gapped connectors also do very well on this flop making alot of pair + OESD and pair + GS hands as well as the 2 pair possibility.

When you consider that 10 outs is ~38% and 13 outs is ~48%, you can see that our equity in the pot is potentially terrible and at best we are a marginal favourite vs any given one of these hands. When you consider that more than 1 villain might have a hand like this (+ flush draws/combo draws, etc.), you can see that is not a spot where we want to play a big pot, because we could very well have little to no equity in the pot.

So sure, some of these guys are going to have hands like qt or overcards and have completely missed the flop (but these are probably folding the flop regardless), but the rationale is that if anybody gives us action on this flop it does not look good for us at all, and, as such, we want to keep the pot as small as possible with a marginal holding and be more than willing to fold to aggression.

Now compare this to one of the flops i talked about in my last post. A flop like T92r only hits 78, 9T, JQ, TT, 99 and 22, and 2 of these don't even have very good equity vs our hand. Plus we don't have to worry about big combo draws nor do we have to worry about gapped connectors hitting this flop in any way.

On a non coordinated 2 suited board, the draws are limited to flush draws with over/s, pair + flush draw (typically unlikely combinatorially wise and often next to impossible on some boards...say that the only unsuited card is a 5 well there are only about 3 combos of hands that would ever include a 5...65s, 45s, and A5s-->but if the unsuited card was an A obviously there are more combos that could hit pair + FD) or a naked flush draw and our equity is quite good vs these hands.

Also, on all of these boards there are many many bricks that can hit, which is certainly much less likely in the posted hand, where so many scare cards can come that make playing a big pot with a marginal hand incredibly difficult. So it should be pretty clear why the argument of "paying to make them draw" completely falls to bits on super coordinated board especially when you consider that you often have no way of distinguishing a big draw, where you might have decent equity, and a made hand, where you have little to no equity.
 
Stick66

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The way the hand played out pf, plenty of hands will cold call pf. With so many people coming along for the ride any s/c or pp is an easy call here to see the flop, and, in any case, typically these are the sort of hands you expect to see TAGs calling, especially in a multiway pot where a hand like AQ is absolute trash.

Flop is 567ss...so let's look at some of the hands.

PPs: 44 has 10 outs. 55/66/77 are miles ahead. 88 also has 10 outs vs us. The only pps we are dominating are 22/33/99/TT, and the only hands potentially getting involved are 99/TT (and even 99 has 24% equity vs us). This is obviously an incredibly narrow range of pps from which we could ever extract value (and very little value since these hands aren't getting excited on this flop).

S/Cs: 43 has us dominated. 45 has 13 outs. 56 has us dominated. 67 has us dominated. 78 has 13 outs. 89 has us dominated. 9T and JT are the only suited connectors we dominate. None of the S/Cs we fair well against, except maybe 9T are ever coming along if we try to build a big pot. Gapped connectors also do very well on this flop making alot of pair + OESD and pair + GS hands as well as the 2 pair possibility.

When you consider that 10 outs is ~38% and 13 outs is ~48%, you can see that our equity in the pot is potentially terrible and at best we are a marginal favourite vs any given one of these hands. When you consider that more than 1 villain might have a hand like this (+ flush draws/combo draws, etc.), you can see that is not a spot where we want to play a big pot, because we could very well have little to no equity in the pot.

So sure, some of these guys are going to have hands like qt or overcards and have completely missed the flop (but these are probably folding the flop regardless), but the rationale is that if anybody gives us action on this flop it does not look good for us at all, and, as such, we want to keep the pot as small as possible with a marginal holding and be more than willing to fold to aggression.

Now compare this to one of the flops i talked about in my last post. A flop like T92r only hits 78, 9T, JQ, TT, 99 and 22, and 2 of these don't even have very good equity vs our hand. Plus we don't have to worry about big combo draws nor do we have to worry about gapped connectors hitting this flop in any way.

On a non coordinated 2 suited board, the draws are limited to flush draws with over/s, pair + flush draw (typically unlikely combinatorially wise and often next to impossible on some boards...say that the only unsuited card is a 5 well there are only about 3 combos of hands that would ever include a 5...65s, 45s, and A5s-->but if the unsuited card was an A obviously there are more combos that could hit pair + FD) or a naked flush draw and our equity is quite good vs these hands.

Also, on all of these boards there are many many bricks that can hit, which is certainly much less likely in the posted hand, where so many scare cards can come that make playing a big pot with a marginal hand incredibly difficult. So it should be pretty clear why the argument of "paying to make them draw" completely falls to bits on super coordinated board especially when you consider that you often have no way of distinguishing a big draw, where you might have decent equity, and a made hand, where you have little to no equity.
Dude, this post rules! This was exactly what I was looking for (and maybe Daks too). Thanks, man.

Just one more question. How few players would we need for an approach like mine to be acceptable? HU or maybe 3-way? Or not at all on that board?
 
F

feitr

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Depends on alot of factors, the main one being the preflop range of the caller/s. Vs a loose passive fish I'd always cbet this for value, because such a player's range is so wide and even when they hit this flop they are going to make marginal hands like a pair with no draws. With position, vs a decent TAG i'd probably always check behind on this flop, because this flop hits villain's cold calling range very hard. Not only that, but good players are going to realise that such a flop often misses your range (this isn't really applicable in nl25) and you are going to face a c/r on the flop and turn lead out as bluffs and there really isn't much you can do about it if you make the mistake of betting the flop. It is a concept similar to WA/WB, but is instead BA/WB (barely ahead, way behind). You can't get called by a whole lot worse equity wise but you can find yourself playing a huge pot where you have no idea where you stand in the hand with all sorts of scare cards that can hit (and even if the scare cards don't actually improve villain, you'll oftentimes allow yourself to be bluffed off of the best hand when scare cards hit if you allow the pot to get too big, as your hand simply can't stand the heat and good villain's will know this).

So basically, 3+ villain's I'd opt to c/c (although if one villain led out for close to pot and another called I might pitch it on the flop and definitely pitch it vs a raise), 2-3 villain's I'd cbet vs fish only and HU i'd cbet vs fish and check it back vs a villain whom i think has a pretty tight preflop range which is mostly pps, scs and large broadway cards.

OOP this becomes almost impossible to play vs a decent player. If you try a c/c route, then villain knows you are weak and can easily blow you off of the hand (or valuetown you if you are a station) and betting obviously has problems as well.
 
Debi

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Thanks guys - who needs Harrington when I have you? :p

Here is what happened with the rest of the hand:

*** FLOP *** [7d 5d 6c]
horacles: bets $1.25
RockNDoc13: calls $1.25
dakota-xx: calls $1.25
PERFECK1: calls $1.25
spridget: raises $1.25 to $2.50 and is all-in
horacles: raises $3.50 to $6
RockNDoc13: folds
dakota-xx: folds
PERFECK1: folds
Uncalled bet ($3.50) returned to horacles
*** TURN *** [7d 5d 6c] [4c]
*** RIVER *** [7d 5d 6c 4c] [2h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
horacles: shows [7c 7h] (three of a kind, Sevens)
spridget: mucks hand
horacles collected $13.10 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $13.75 | Rake $0.65
Board [7d 5d 6c 4c 2h]
Seat 2: RockNDoc13 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: dakota-xx folded on the Flop
Seat 4: PERFECK1 folded on the Flop
Seat 5: powermessy folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: DrJ079 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: spridget (button) mucked [Qc Td]
Seat 9: horacles (small blind) showed [7c 7h] and won ($13.10) with three of a kind, Sevens

I wasn't too concerned with spridget but the re-raise from horacles was enough for me. I was thinking I probably should have just folded post-flop when horacles bet.
 
NineLions

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Daks, I just wanted to say that it's great to see you posting hands.

Not just because you're doing it for your own benefit, but because you're taking comments well, and I think seeing an old (old as in long-time!) member posting hands asking not really really complicated questions is good for newer members who might otherwise be intimidated.
 
Debi

Debi

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Well - I am putting all pride aside because I really want to learn the game. I can't pretend that just because I have played my own way for a few years that I know what I am doing and don't need to learn.

So even if it embarasses me I will keep posting them. So far I have only made one person throw up and I think he recovered lol.
 
RickH2005

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Just missed ITM........

I just got knoked out of a PokerStars $1.10 tourny (700+seats) w/pr Js inna pocket to pkt Ks calling an all in push 19 places outa the money! Shoulda followed Debis lead!:( But it's soooooo hard to fold those Jacks! Who was it that said---"There's 3 ways to play a pair of Jacks----and ALL of them are WRONG!!!"
 
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