re: Poker & $25NL FR - JJ, what to do post flop
But the straight cards would not have likely called the PF raise. So now you just want to scare away the flush draw and overcards like AK.
The way the hand played out pf, plenty of hands will cold call pf. With so many people coming along for the ride any s/c or pp is an easy call here to see the flop, and, in any case, typically these are the sort of hands you expect to see TAGs calling, especially in a multiway pot where a hand like AQ is absolute trash.
Flop is 567ss...so let's look at some of the hands.
PPs: 44 has 10 outs. 55/66/77 are miles ahead. 88 also has 10 outs vs us. The only pps we are dominating are 22/33/99/TT, and the only hands potentially getting involved are 99/TT (and even 99 has 24% equity vs us). This is obviously an incredibly narrow range of pps from which we could ever extract value (and very little value since these hands aren't getting excited on this flop).
S/Cs: 43 has us dominated. 45 has 13 outs. 56 has us dominated. 67 has us dominated. 78 has 13 outs. 89 has us dominated. 9T and JT are the only suited connectors we dominate. None of the S/Cs we fair well against, except maybe 9T are ever coming along if we try to build a big pot. Gapped connectors also do very well on this flop making alot of pair + OESD and pair + GS hands as well as the 2 pair possibility.
When you consider that 10 outs is ~38% and 13 outs is ~48%, you can see that our equity in the pot is potentially terrible and at best we are a marginal favourite vs any given one of these hands. When you consider that more than 1 villain might have a hand like this (+ flush draws/combo draws, etc.), you can see that is not a spot where we want to play a big pot, because we could very well have little to no equity in the pot.
So sure, some of these guys are going to have hands like qt or overcards and have completely missed the flop (but these are probably folding the flop regardless), but the rationale is that if anybody gives us action on this flop it does not look good for us at all, and, as such, we want to keep the pot as small as possible with a marginal holding and be more than willing to fold to aggression.
Now compare this to one of the flops i talked about in my last post. A flop like T92r only hits 78, 9T, JQ, TT, 99 and 22, and 2 of these don't even have very good equity vs our hand. Plus we don't have to worry about big combo draws nor do we have to worry about gapped connectors hitting this flop in any way.
On a non coordinated 2 suited board, the draws are limited to flush draws with over/s, pair + flush draw (typically unlikely combinatorially wise and often next to impossible on some boards...say that the only unsuited card is a 5 well there are only about 3 combos of hands that would ever include a 5...65s, 45s, and A5s-->but if the unsuited card was an A obviously there are more combos that could hit pair + FD) or a naked flush draw and our equity is quite good vs these hands.
Also, on all of these boards there are many many bricks that can hit, which is certainly much less likely in the posted hand, where so many scare cards can come that make playing a big pot with a marginal hand incredibly difficult. So it should be pretty clear why the argument of "paying to make them draw" completely falls to bits on super coordinated board especially when you consider that you often have no way of distinguishing a big draw, where you might have decent equity, and a made hand, where you have little to no equity.