[25NL FR] JJ vs flop shove from Reg

Villain is 14/10/2.5 over 250 hands
Ive been TAG

This reeks of AA no?

pokerstars GAME #18442171128: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/06/28 - 14:22:12 (ET)
Table 'Arrakis' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: sdutil ($38.70 in chips)
Seat 2: GA book fund ($32.15 in chips)
Seat 3: peakslv99 ($21.05 in chips)
Seat 4: Nazarius ($25 in chips)
Seat 5: bw07507 ($45.45 in chips)
Seat 6: Longshot1999 ($28.60 in chips)
Seat 7: triplej74 ($25.30 in chips)
Seat 8: coopaloop122 ($40.80 in chips)
Seat 9: pablo131279 ($25.05 in chips)
pablo131279: posts small blind $0.10
sdutil: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bw07507 [Jh Jd]
GA book fund: raises $0.50 to $0.75
peakslv99: folds
Nazarius: calls $0.75
bw07507: raises $2.75 to $3.50
Longshot1999: folds
triplej74: calls $3.50
coopaloop122: folds
pablo131279: folds
sdutil: folds
GA book fund: folds
Nazarius: folds
*** FLOP *** [3h 4s 4h]
bw07507: bets $6
triplej74: raises $15.80 to $21.80 and is all-in
bw07507: ?

I see the AA or no? I dont know lol

Villains stats seem pretty solid, if he's a decent player I cant see him hardly ever making this play with 99 or 1010. You 3bet preflop in an early seat representing JJ+ AK in his eyes. Realistically he can only profitably call in this spot preflop with a similiar range, and you have the bottom of that range. I think the only hand he could probably do this with that you can beat is AKh, and even then hes a favorite. I'd fold to the shove.

Hmm potentially this could be fl dr's, but stacking off on the flop w/JJ to this villain usually ends in tears imo. His probable range is JJ+ AKs, I fold here.

Easy fold imo. Would you have stacked preflop if he had shoved? Does this flop change anything? The one thing it's changed is it's added AKh to his range, as he would definitely play this way preflop with AKh and shove this flop.

But I'm pretty sure AKh is actually ahead of you (15 outs twice, although you have a redraw against 6 of his outs with 3 of your own, still pretty negligable). You MAY have odds to call against AKh, but the fact that this is most of the time AA/KK kills any of that. Sure he could be a fish with 77, but unless you have notes of this guy going crazy preflop with low pairs and postflop with any overpair I think this is a pretty easy fold.

Do u like the bet on the flop then or do u check this??

bw07507 said:

Do u like the bet on the flop then or do u check this??

Click to expand...

A) I don't think most TAGs like this are gonna be flatting AK preflop.
B) I think his flat calling range is like 99+, with some discounted AK in there.
By checking this flop, we at least get value out of the few pairs we do beat. But we also may be giving AK a free card. And we make AK fire two barrels in this spot to drive us off the best hand.

Idk, I'm kinda leaning towards c/c if he'll fire with AK/99/TT.

what's your table image at this point?

I don't see people with those stats stacking off with 99/TT here THAT often. I see alot of people with these numbers who would raise/call with 99/TT (or lower) but not reraise all in on the flop with it on that board (unless you have a very wild image)

I think AK/AQ of hearts are more likely than 99/TT. I would also think (based on the fact he didn't 4 bet you preflop) that QQ/KK are probably more likely than AA although as far as you are concerned it doesn't really matter which he has if it's QQ+.

I think this is an easy fold as played and i think i like a c/c on the flop here instead of a lead out bet.

I don't think it reeks of AA because of the 3bet call preflop. He probably would have stacked. I was surprised to see people post "easy fold" ... is it really? I think folding is the right move though since his stats definitely lend to make you think he's not a fish but playing a solid TAG game. I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn over QQ which would call a 3bet PF and want to take this down postflop trying to get midpairs to call and hands like AK to fold.